Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

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bpj
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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by bpj » Thu Nov 17, 2022 9:04 pm

Seattle or Bust wrote:
Thu Nov 17, 2022 7:29 pm
bpj wrote:
Thu Nov 17, 2022 5:52 pm
I get the feeling that some here would have been happier if the Mariners added a star SS bat and then a solid contributor in the OF instead of the other way around.

Hernandez + Wong = 245 combined wRC+ in 2022 for a total cost of $24M

Bogaerts + Haniger = 247 combined wRC+ in 2022 for a total cost of $300M

They're going about it the right way imo.
I love the Teo trade. Patiently waiting on an extension.

What I don't love is Jerry calling Teo "the big trade" of the off season. The trade was for a guy that had a sub $10 million value on MLBTV... that's the big trade?

If they're unwilling to fork over the cash to sign another big bat, whether that be the big SS's or another corner OF, how else are they going to add significantly at 2B or LF if not by trade?

Why Kolten Wong and why not Brandon Lowe? I hate that Wong was the name that got leaked... that should be a blip on the radar addition that pales in comparison to who they then add in left field if they're going the cheap route at 2B.

Why not try to pry Reynolds from the Pirates?

The team knows it just entered its contention window. Why do they continually aim so low and communicate that as their intention?
MLB Trade Values are excess value on their contract. They're not saying he's worth $10M.

They're saying Hernandez is worth $10M more than he's paid. He's a $24M value player.

Yes, that's the big trade. Just like signing a Bogaerts or Turner would be a big move (although those come with a much bigger payroll consequence).

By 2022 wRC+:
Hernandez: 129
Bogaerts: 134
Turner: 128

Why Kolten Wong? Because he's available. Lowe makes peanuts at $4.5M compared to the value he brings the Rays. Where have you heard Lowe's available? From everything I've seen you're the only one talking about him being available.

Maybe in two years, but doubtful when he's being paid $4.5M with three years of control remaining on a contending team.

Wong is good enough that they can put him at 2B and should come at just the cost of a Flexen.

Wong is an answer for $10M instead of $250M, that's the main point. And the Mariners just got equal production from Hernandez as if they had signed one of the SS's for only $14M.

They still could try and get Reynolds, but Hernandez is the better bat anyways.

They absolutely should not be counting on Kelenic next year. In my opinion they'll still add a 2B and one more bat.

And they're even talking of replacing Marco with a better arm. Now that's where I'd love to see them put some money.

If the offseason ended up being Hernandez, Reynolds, Wong and Senga, we'd be a solid team.

There are a lot of bats that could replace Reynolds if we cant get him. Even Michael Brantley at DH/OF makes a lot of sense in the Carlos Santana role. Christian Walker in a DH/1B role. Mitch Haniger in a DH/OF role.

They definitely can't just sit on what they've got now, have to add three more good players to the top of the roster.

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bpj
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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by bpj » Thu Nov 17, 2022 9:20 pm

By the way, MLB Trade Values for last year's Free Agent Shortstops:

Story: -37.4
Seager: -46.7
Semien: -26.1
Screenshot_20221117-132018_DuckDuckGo.jpg
Screenshot_20221117-132018_DuckDuckGo.jpg (166.01 KiB) Viewed 563 times

Seattle or Bust
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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by Seattle or Bust » Thu Nov 17, 2022 9:45 pm

bpj wrote:
Thu Nov 17, 2022 9:20 pm
By the way, MLB Trade Values for last year's Free Agent Shortstops:

Story: -37.4
Seager: -46.7
Semien: -26.1

Screenshot_20221117-132018_DuckDuckGo.jpg
Yep. And again why it's probably wise not to give any of the current crop $30 million a year or whatever.

Idk how we went from ARod hitting 40-60 dongs at the position to shelling out $30 million to guys who hit 15-30.

Weird trend to me... yet teams keep doing it.

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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by D-train » Thu Nov 17, 2022 10:14 pm

Seattle or Bust wrote:
Thu Nov 17, 2022 9:45 pm
bpj wrote:
Thu Nov 17, 2022 9:20 pm
By the way, MLB Trade Values for last year's Free Agent Shortstops:

Story: -37.4
Seager: -46.7
Semien: -26.1

Screenshot_20221117-132018_DuckDuckGo.jpg
Yep. And again why it's probably wise not to give any of the current crop $30 million a year or whatever.

Idk how we went from ARod hitting 40-60 dongs at the position to shelling out $30 million to guys who hit 15-30.

Weird trend to me... yet teams keep doing it.
If Judge could play SS he would become a billionaire this offseason. :lol:
dt

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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by Seattle or Bust » Thu Nov 17, 2022 10:33 pm

bpj wrote:
Thu Nov 17, 2022 9:04 pm
Seattle or Bust wrote:
Thu Nov 17, 2022 7:29 pm
bpj wrote:
Thu Nov 17, 2022 5:52 pm
I get the feeling that some here would have been happier if the Mariners added a star SS bat and then a solid contributor in the OF instead of the other way around.

Hernandez + Wong = 245 combined wRC+ in 2022 for a total cost of $24M

Bogaerts + Haniger = 247 combined wRC+ in 2022 for a total cost of $300M

They're going about it the right way imo.
I love the Teo trade. Patiently waiting on an extension.

What I don't love is Jerry calling Teo "the big trade" of the off season. The trade was for a guy that had a sub $10 million value on MLBTV... that's the big trade?

If they're unwilling to fork over the cash to sign another big bat, whether that be the big SS's or another corner OF, how else are they going to add significantly at 2B or LF if not by trade?

Why Kolten Wong and why not Brandon Lowe? I hate that Wong was the name that got leaked... that should be a blip on the radar addition that pales in comparison to who they then add in left field if they're going the cheap route at 2B.

Why not try to pry Reynolds from the Pirates?

The team knows it just entered its contention window. Why do they continually aim so low and communicate that as their intention?
MLB Trade Values are excess value on their contract. They're not saying he's worth $10M.

They're saying Hernandez is worth $10M more than he's paid. He's a $24M value player.

Yes, that's the big trade. Just like signing a Bogaerts or Turner would be a big move (although those come with a much bigger payroll consequence).

By 2022 wRC+:
Hernandez: 129
Bogaerts: 134
Turner: 128

Why Kolten Wong? Because he's available. Lowe makes peanuts at $4.5M compared to the value he brings the Rays. Where have you heard Lowe's available? From everything I've seen you're the only one talking about him being available.

Maybe in two years, but doubtful when he's being paid $4.5M with three years of control remaining on a contending team.

Wong is good enough that they can put him at 2B and should come at just the cost of a Flexen.

Wong is an answer for $10M instead of $250M, that's the main point. And the Mariners just got equal production from Hernandez as if they had signed one of the SS's for only $14M.

They still could try and get Reynolds, but Hernandez is the better bat anyways.

They absolutely should not be counting on Kelenic next year. In my opinion they'll still add a 2B and one more bat.

And they're even talking of replacing Marco with a better arm. Now that's where I'd love to see them put some money.

If the offseason ended up being Hernandez, Reynolds, Wong and Senga, we'd be a solid team.

There are a lot of bats that could replace Reynolds if we cant get him. Even Michael Brantley at DH/OF makes a lot of sense in the Carlos Santana role. Christian Walker in a DH/1B role. Mitch Haniger in a DH/OF role.

They definitely can't just sit on what they've got now, have to add three more good players to the top of the roster.
There's no doubt that those acquisitions make the team better on paper.

I guess I'm just really wanting to build that dominant roster that teams fear.

I don't think teams really fear Kolten Wong... much like teams don't fear Frazier, Toro, etc... and I'd like to have as few JP Crawfords in the lineup as possible.

RE: Lowe... I don't know that he's necessarily available... he's just only got 2 years of control left before his club options kick in and I'm curious if they'd want to start re-stocking their farm by trading him versus spending $14 million over the next 2 years for a guy who had a down '22 w. a back injury.

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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by Sexymarinersfan » Thu Nov 17, 2022 10:37 pm

bpj wrote:
Thu Nov 17, 2022 5:52 pm
I get the feeling that some here would have been happier if the Mariners added a star SS bat and then a solid contributor in the OF instead of the other way around.

Hernandez + Wong = 245 combined wRC+ in 2022 for a total cost of $24M

Bogaerts + Haniger = 247 combined wRC+ in 2022 for a total cost of $300M

They're going about it the right way imo.
I still think they're in on Yoshida and Sengal.

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bpj
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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by bpj » Thu Nov 17, 2022 10:44 pm

Seattle or Bust wrote:
Thu Nov 17, 2022 10:33 pm
bpj wrote:
Thu Nov 17, 2022 9:04 pm
Seattle or Bust wrote:
Thu Nov 17, 2022 7:29 pm


I love the Teo trade. Patiently waiting on an extension.

What I don't love is Jerry calling Teo "the big trade" of the off season. The trade was for a guy that had a sub $10 million value on MLBTV... that's the big trade?

If they're unwilling to fork over the cash to sign another big bat, whether that be the big SS's or another corner OF, how else are they going to add significantly at 2B or LF if not by trade?

Why Kolten Wong and why not Brandon Lowe? I hate that Wong was the name that got leaked... that should be a blip on the radar addition that pales in comparison to who they then add in left field if they're going the cheap route at 2B.

Why not try to pry Reynolds from the Pirates?

The team knows it just entered its contention window. Why do they continually aim so low and communicate that as their intention?
MLB Trade Values are excess value on their contract. They're not saying he's worth $10M.

They're saying Hernandez is worth $10M more than he's paid. He's a $24M value player.

Yes, that's the big trade. Just like signing a Bogaerts or Turner would be a big move (although those come with a much bigger payroll consequence).

By 2022 wRC+:
Hernandez: 129
Bogaerts: 134
Turner: 128

Why Kolten Wong? Because he's available. Lowe makes peanuts at $4.5M compared to the value he brings the Rays. Where have you heard Lowe's available? From everything I've seen you're the only one talking about him being available.

Maybe in two years, but doubtful when he's being paid $4.5M with three years of control remaining on a contending team.

Wong is good enough that they can put him at 2B and should come at just the cost of a Flexen.

Wong is an answer for $10M instead of $250M, that's the main point. And the Mariners just got equal production from Hernandez as if they had signed one of the SS's for only $14M.

They still could try and get Reynolds, but Hernandez is the better bat anyways.

They absolutely should not be counting on Kelenic next year. In my opinion they'll still add a 2B and one more bat.

And they're even talking of replacing Marco with a better arm. Now that's where I'd love to see them put some money.

If the offseason ended up being Hernandez, Reynolds, Wong and Senga, we'd be a solid team.

There are a lot of bats that could replace Reynolds if we cant get him. Even Michael Brantley at DH/OF makes a lot of sense in the Carlos Santana role. Christian Walker in a DH/1B role. Mitch Haniger in a DH/OF role.

They definitely can't just sit on what they've got now, have to add three more good players to the top of the roster.
There's no doubt that those acquisitions make the team better on paper.

I guess I'm just really wanting to build that dominant roster that teams fear.

I don't think teams really fear Kolten Wong... much like teams don't fear Frazier, Toro, etc... and I'd like to have as few JP Crawfords in the lineup as possible.

RE: Lowe... I don't know that he's necessarily available... he's just only got 2 years of control left before his club options kick in and I'm curious if they'd want to start re-stocking their farm by trading him versus spending $14 million over the next 2 years for a guy who had a down '22 w. a back injury.
Fair enough, I think teams will fear a deep lineup more than they fear one good hitter.

An Aaron Judge would make this, or any, team better. No denying that.

But, in my book, Hernandez was among the top available options. Healthy Mitch off a big season would be right there with him.

And I can't imagine that if they were going to be in on Judge that they'd let one year of Hernandez stop them.

They've got their bases covered now regardless.

Well, other than the holes they say they're still filling, LF, 2B and maybe even an SP5 upgrade if we beg hard enough.

So far it's been a great offseason, which added to the deadline addition of Castillo, has me giving Hollander some breathing room.

He's done the things I'd hoped so far. I didn't even think they would be at the top of the market for Hernandez. I'm actually proud of them for getting that bird in hand.

They seem to be on the right path, I'm not going to fret until they're rumored to be signing Dansby Swanson or Andy Bendntakeme.

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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by Sexymarinersfan » Fri Nov 18, 2022 4:47 am


Vogelbomb
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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by Vogelbomb » Fri Nov 18, 2022 6:09 am

The Mariners should be intent on leaving LF to either Trammell or Kelenic. Let them show up in Peoria and compete for the job. JK has 1 option yr left, Trammell does not, can be the 4th OF if he doesn't win the job. Can play all 3 OF spots.

I have faith that Kelenic wins the job. You can allow him to hit 8th and get better all year if you upgrade at SS and DH.

The Mariners should also not worry about SP. Trade Flexen and Marco. Sign a reliever or two (or trade). I like Matt Moore, Andrew Chafin, Matt Boyd. Isaiah Campbell and Bryce Miller could be close. For the 5 spot I see Hancock winning the job over Dollard and Brash, but it could be Dollard, too.

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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by D-train » Fri Nov 18, 2022 2:21 pm

Vogelbomb wrote:
Fri Nov 18, 2022 6:09 am
The Mariners should be intent on leaving LF to either Trammell or Kelenic. Let them show up in Peoria and compete for the job. JK has 1 option yr left, Trammell does not, can be the 4th OF if he doesn't win the job. Can play all 3 OF spots.

I have faith that Kelenic wins the job. You can allow him to hit 8th and get better all year if you upgrade at SS and DH.

The Mariners should also not worry about SP. Trade Flexen and Marco. Sign a reliever or two (or trade). I like Matt Moore, Andrew Chafin, Matt Boyd. Isaiah Campbell and Bryce Miller could be close. For the 5 spot I see Hancock winning the job over Dollard and Brash, but it could be Dollard, too.
Agree regarding the rotation but sorry your faith in JK is completely Blind, like Stevie Wonder, Ray Charles and Helen Keller blind deaf and dumb.

He hit .141 with a .534 OPS and finished the season 5 for 51 for God's sake. Zero reason to expect him to hit. None zip nada.
dt

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