Ohtani to Dodgers!!!!!

[Donn Beach]

You're not turning Mets fans into Yankees fans but in LA? And they are not burning his jersey, it's Artie's fault. They've been a fan of the greatest player in ML history for six years and they can run up the highway and continue it? Should ask David

[D-train]

Dodgers are so handcuffed. lol

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/why- ... -contract/

[Donn Beach]

The Yankees have him in the bag, lol

[quote
Andy Martino
@martinonyc
There are rumors, or reports, or I don’t know what anymore that Matsui and Tanaka will attend the Yankees’ meeting with Yoshinobu Yamamoto in L.A. tomorrow. That is not accurate. They won’t be there. But Hal Steinbrenner and co. are in a solid position in this sweepstakes [/quote]

[Captain 97]

I have been thinking about this all weekend and I just don't see this deal paying off. According to Forbes the Dodgers franchise is worth 4.8 Billion dollars. They basically just paid Ohtani 15% of the value of their organization. That would be like General Motors paying 7 Billion dollars to steal Fords CEO. It doesn't compute out to me. Ohtani brings value no doubt but how much? Estimates in Anaheim were 10-20 Million per year. Maybe he brings in a bit more than that as a Dodger due to the brand but even then they are still paying 50-60 Million more for him than he is bringing in. The Dodgers already lead the league in attendance at 47K per game. Even if Ohtani causes them to sell every game out there is not a whole lot more revenue to be had there. Yeah he might help them win a world series but honestly they were already a good enough team that that was probably going to happen anyway. They have won 100 games 4 of the last 5 years and the only time they didn't was the short year in 2020 when they won the World Series. Is is a career .274 hitter at DH the missing piece that is suddenly going to put them over the top? JD Martinez hit .271 as their DH last season.

Ohtani is a solid ball player who does everything well but he really isn't premier at any one thing. If Ohtani had never pitched and he was on the market right now only as a hitter what would his market value be? He is a career .274 Hitter with a .922 OPS coming off a career year at age 28. His WAR numbers without pitching considered over his career are 2.7, 2.5, 0.0, 4.9, 3.4 and 6.0. As a hitter his resume is not even close to guys like Judge, Trout and Seager. I have got to think he would be a 30-35 Million dollar player at best.

Now lets look at the pitching side. His numbers are closer to elite as a pitcher than they are as a hitter with a 3.01 Career ERA and 11.4 K/9 however even when completely healthy he has never been A horse who carries a full load. Over the last 3 years since coming back from his first TJ surgery he has pitched 130.1, 166 and 132 Innings. Despite being treated with kid gloves, he still managed to break down again. With the value of Ohtani as a hitter noted above. What the Dodgers have essentially done is gambled 350-400 million on a 29 year old pitcher who is coming off his second TJ surgery who won't even be pitching this year and has never even managed to carry a full load even when healthy. Blake Snell has a 3.02 at 30 years old and over twice the innings as Ohtani. Can you imagine anyone giving him a 10 year 400 million dollar deal if he was just coming off of Tommy John surgery?

[Lamda]

I have been thinking about this all weekend and I just don't see this deal paying off. According to Forbes the Dodgers franchise is worth 4.8 Billion dollars. They basically just paid Ohtani 15% of the value of their organization. That would be like General Motors paying 7 Billion dollars to steal Fords CEO. It doesn't compute out to me. Ohtani brings value no doubt but how much? Estimates in Anaheim were 10-20 Million per year. Maybe he brings in a bit more than that as a Dodger due to the brand but even then they are still paying 50-60 Million more for him than he is bringing in. The Dodgers already lead the league in attendance at 47K per game. Even if Ohtani causes them to sell every game out there is not a whole lot more revenue to be had there. Yeah he might help them win a world series but honestly they were already a good enough team that that was probably going to happen anyway. They have won 100 games 4 of the last 5 years and the only time they didn't was the short year in 2020 when they won the World Series. Is is a career .274 hitter at DH the missing piece that is suddenly going to put them over the top? JD Martinez hit .271 as their DH last season.

Ohtani is a solid ball player who does everything well but he really isn't premier at any one thing. If Ohtani had never pitched and he was on the market right now only as a hitter what would his market value be? He is a career .274 Hitter with a .922 OPS coming off a career year at age 28. His WAR numbers without pitching considered over his career are 2.7, 2.5, 0.0, 4.9, 3.4 and 6.0. As a hitter his resume is not even close to guys like Judge, Trout and Seager. I have got to think he would be a 30-35 Million dollar player at best.

Now lets look at the pitching side. His numbers are closer to elite as a pitcher than they are as a hitter with a 3.01 Career ERA and 11.4 K/9 however even when completely healthy he has never been A horse who carries a full load. Over the last 3 years since coming back from his first TJ surgery he has pitched 130.1, 166 and 132 Innings. Despite being treated with kid gloves, he still managed to break down again. With the value of Ohtani as a hitter noted above. What the Dodgers have essentially done is gambled 350-400 million on a 29 year old pitcher who is coming off his second TJ surgery who won't even be pitching this year and has never even managed to carry a full load even when healthy. Blake Snell has a 3.02 at 30 years old and over twice the innings as Ohtani. Can you imagine anyone giving him a 10 year 400 million dollar deal if he was just coming off of Tommy John surgery?

True - I thought about this as well. Yes it would have been nice to have the guy on our team obviously - but everyone is paying him to be a 2-way player but he's only going to be a 2-way player part of the time and he's going to be injured a lot because of it. Its why they always say - pick one - be a hitter or a pitcher, you can't do both. If they were just paying him for 1 then he only would have been paid around 40-50 and that would have been it. When he's on it will be great but he'll be on the DL a lot as well which the team will have to deal with and later in his career they most likely will tell him to stop pitching and just hit so then the contract really won't be worth it at that point.

[Donn Beach]

On the other hand, the dodgers aren't stupid. One would figure they put some thought into whether it made sense for them to do it

MAKING THEIR MONEY BACK: In L.A., Harris & DiGiovanna noted a “good chunk of the mammoth contract is expected to be offset by the extra operating revenue the Dodgers will generate by having Ohtani on their team.” The Angels netted around $10-20M annually “in revenue from Ohtani-related in-stadium and on-air advertising.” One source indicated that Ohtani “could be worth two or three times as much” with the Dodgers (L.A. TIMES, 12/9). USA TODAY’s Bob Nightengale noted Ohtani is “going to be worth nearly $50 million a year to the Dodgers in marketing and licensing.” Every Dodgers game “will now be broadcast live in Japan” and the team will have “billboards touting Ohtani all over Southern California.” There will be “lucrative Japanese advertising in the rotating signs behind home plate at Dodger Stadium.” Nightengale: “There will be sponsorships. Merchandise. Jerseys. Caps. Licensing. You name it, Ohtani will be on it” (USA TODAY, 12/9).

BEST COMBINATION POSSIBLE: ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan noted the Dodgers were “always best positioned to leverage Ohtani's unparalleled marketing value, to take a superstar who made Anaheim a baseball destination and create a mutually beneficial business relationship that further enriches both.” It is “impossible to say how much money the franchise will make with Ohtani,” but it is the “sort of number that left ownership pledging it would not be outbid for him in free agency” (ESPN.com, 12/10). In D.C., Chelsea Janes noted one of the top players of the modern era “will join one of its top franchises, a logical alignment of star and market that should yield endorsement deals and television revenue, sell merchandise and put one of the game’s most storied players in one of its most storied stadiums.” The Dodgers are paying Ohtani “to hit and to pitch as much as he can.” However, more than anything, they are “paying him to be an icon” (WASHINGTON POST, 12/9).

HAVING THEIR CAKE AND EATING IT TOO: On Long Island, David Lennon noted Ohtani’s true value “far exceeds what Ohtani does on the field.” Lennon: “He’s a baseball rock star, the sport’s top must-see attraction, and from a marketing standpoint, Ohtani will be a cash generator way beyond anyone that’s ever worn a Dodgers’ uniform -- or played in the majors.” Television ratings and advertising revenue are “all multiplied by his unmatched popularity in Japan.” The Dodgers typically already lead MLB in attendance every year, but it is “virtually guaranteed” that Ohtani “represents exponential financial growth across the board” (NEWSDAY, 12/9). In Chicago, Maddie Lee noted Ohtani “provides a boost on the business side through international appeal for both fans and advertisers.” The Dodgers’ baseball and business operations “clearly valued the combination at a sky-high mark” (CHICAGO SUN-TIMES, 12/9).

[GL_Storm]

On the other hand, the dodgers aren't stupid. One would figure they put some thought into whether it made sense for them to do it

MAKING THEIR MONEY BACK: In L.A., Harris & DiGiovanna noted a “good chunk of the mammoth contract is expected to be offset by the extra operating revenue the Dodgers will generate by having Ohtani on their team.” The Angels netted around $10-20M annually “in revenue from Ohtani-related in-stadium and on-air advertising.” One source indicated that Ohtani “could be worth two or three times as much” with the Dodgers (L.A. TIMES, 12/9). USA TODAY’s Bob Nightengale noted Ohtani is “going to be worth nearly $50 million a year to the Dodgers in marketing and licensing.” Every Dodgers game “will now be broadcast live in Japan” and the team will have “billboards touting Ohtani all over Southern California.” There will be “lucrative Japanese advertising in the rotating signs behind home plate at Dodger Stadium.” Nightengale: “There will be sponsorships. Merchandise. Jerseys. Caps. Licensing. You name it, Ohtani will be on it” (USA TODAY, 12/9).

BEST COMBINATION POSSIBLE: ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan noted the Dodgers were “always best positioned to leverage Ohtani's unparalleled marketing value, to take a superstar who made Anaheim a baseball destination and create a mutually beneficial business relationship that further enriches both.” It is “impossible to say how much money the franchise will make with Ohtani,” but it is the “sort of number that left ownership pledging it would not be outbid for him in free agency” (ESPN.com, 12/10). In D.C., Chelsea Janes noted one of the top players of the modern era “will join one of its top franchises, a logical alignment of star and market that should yield endorsement deals and television revenue, sell merchandise and put one of the game’s most storied players in one of its most storied stadiums.” The Dodgers are paying Ohtani “to hit and to pitch as much as he can.” However, more than anything, they are “paying him to be an icon” (WASHINGTON POST, 12/9).

HAVING THEIR CAKE AND EATING IT TOO: On Long Island, David Lennon noted Ohtani’s true value “far exceeds what Ohtani does on the field.” Lennon: “He’s a baseball rock star, the sport’s top must-see attraction, and from a marketing standpoint, Ohtani will be a cash generator way beyond anyone that’s ever worn a Dodgers’ uniform -- or played in the majors.” Television ratings and advertising revenue are “all multiplied by his unmatched popularity in Japan.” The Dodgers typically already lead MLB in attendance every year, but it is “virtually guaranteed” that Ohtani “represents exponential financial growth across the board” (NEWSDAY, 12/9). In Chicago, Maddie Lee noted Ohtani “provides a boost on the business side through international appeal for both fans and advertisers.” The Dodgers’ baseball and business operations “clearly valued the combination at a sky-high mark” (CHICAGO SUN-TIMES, 12/9).

Where are you quoting from?

[Donn Beach]

https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/A ... value.aspx

[D-train]

[D-train]

With an average of 3% inflation:

Net present value of $70 x 10 is $597

Net present value of $2 x 9 + $680 in year 10 is $521M