Thread Thief GT 9/15

[Seattle or Bust]

He hung on forever to get 3K hits. So should we say he doesn't have 3k hits too because we are going exclude his last EIGHT seasons?

Considering he played half his career in Japan, 3K hits is incredible. Also considering he put up like 2,400 hits in 12 seasons... that's pretty nuts. 9 Gold Gloves, 4 silver sluggers, an MVP, 7 seasons leading the league in hits, and breaking the all-time-single-season hit record will surely make you a first ballot HOFer.

Half? 28% of his PAs were in Japan. He played 19 seasons in the MLB. He hit .311 which is obviously good but only a 117 OPS+ in his ten best years from 2001-2010. 40 yo Justin Turner's OPS this season: 117

I suppose relative to league average depends on the era. In 2001, Tony Womack was the worst qualified hitter... he slashed .266/.307/.345/.652... good for a 64 OPS+... JP Crawford is at .197/.301/.324/.625 with an OPS+ of 85.

Offense in 2024 is literal dog shit and Ichiro would have like a 140 OPS+ in today's game during his prime. So not all OPS+ is = imo.

OPS+ is also not very kind to contact hitters considering that slug carries more weight.

I believe slug is important, but not to the scale that OPS favors. To me, a guy who hits .330/.400/.400 is every bit as a valuable as a guy who hits .230/.330/.500. Especially when you consider what his role was/is.

He was a leadoff hitter expected to set the table, runs the bases, and play stellar defense.

[Pharmabro]

Considering he played half his career in Japan, 3K hits is incredible. Also considering he put up like 2,400 hits in 12 seasons... that's pretty nuts. 9 Gold Gloves, 4 silver sluggers, an MVP, 7 seasons leading the league in hits, and breaking the all-time-single-season hit record will surely make you a first ballot HOFer.

Half? 28% of his PAs were in Japan. He played 19 seasons in the MLB. He hit .311 which is obviously good but only a 117 OPS+ in his ten best years from 2001-2010. 40 yo Justin Turner's OPS this season: 117

I suppose relative to league average depends on the era. In 2001, Tony Womack was the worst qualified hitter... he slashed .266/.307/.345/.652... good for a 64 OPS+... JP Crawford is at .197/.301/.324/.625 with an OPS+ of 85.

Offense in 2024 is literal dog shit and Ichiro would have like a 140 OPS+ in today's game during his prime. So not all OPS+ is = imo.

OPS+ is also not very kind to contact hitters considering that slug carries more weight.

I believe slug is important, but not to the scale that OPS favors. To me, a guy who hits .330/.400/.400 is every bit as a valuable as a guy who hits .230/.330/.500. Especially when you consider what his role was/is.

He was a leadoff hitter expected to set the table, runs the bases, and play stellar defense.

Actually OPS+ favors OBP vs Slg. If two hitters on the same team both have a.750 OPS but one has a 400 OBP and a .350 slg and the numbers are reversed .350 OBP/.400 slg the player with the higher OPS+ will always be the OBP guy.

[bpj]

Half? 28% of his PAs were in Japan. He played 19 seasons in the MLB. He hit .311 which is obviously good but only a 117 OPS+ in his ten best years from 2001-2010. 40 yo Justin Turner's OPS this season: 117

I suppose relative to league average depends on the era. In 2001, Tony Womack was the worst qualified hitter... he slashed .266/.307/.345/.652... good for a 64 OPS+... JP Crawford is at .197/.301/.324/.625 with an OPS+ of 85.

Offense in 2024 is literal dog shit and Ichiro would have like a 140 OPS+ in today's game during his prime. So not all OPS+ is = imo.

OPS+ is also not very kind to contact hitters considering that slug carries more weight.

I believe slug is important, but not to the scale that OPS favors. To me, a guy who hits .330/.400/.400 is every bit as a valuable as a guy who hits .230/.330/.500. Especially when you consider what his role was/is.

He was a leadoff hitter expected to set the table, runs the bases, and play stellar defense.

Actually OPS+ favors OBP vs Slg. If two hitters on the same team both have a.750 OPS but one has a 400 OBP and a .350 slg and the numbers are reversed .350 OBP/.400 slg the player with the higher OPS+ will always be the OBP guy.

And, Ichiro's numbers would be down in 2024 offensively just like everyone else's.

That's exactly why they use stats like wRC+ and OPS+ to show how your numbers stack up relative to your peers.

Ichiro was only 7% better than his average peers from 2005-2011 with a 107 wRC+. He's not suddenly going to outperform his peers now that the avg fastball is up several mph.

He had a good first 4 years. Good for Ichiro.

From 2005-2011 (he played until 2019) he was most comparable to these world beaters, ranked right there with the great David DeJesus and Lyle Overbay...:

[DavidGee24]

Mariners win! We're HEROES!!!

Emphatic beatdown to take this series. Where the hell was this offense when we had a 10-game lead? I'm guessing Edgar's influence is having a good effect here.

[DavidGee24]

104 OPS+ for a 1st ballot HOFer..

Lol he was like a 122 OPS+ his first 10 years.

A little silly to judge a guy for what he did with the bat from age 38-45.

He hung on forever to get 3K hits. So should we say he doesn't have 3k hits too because we are going exclude his last EIGHT seasons?

The thing to remember about Ichiro though is that he was as good at 20 as he was 27. If he's in the majors at 20 that's another virtually guaranteed 1,,500 hits at least.

[bpj]

Ichiro:

2001-2004:

2005-2011:

2012-2019:

He made good contributions with his glove and arm, but you put a shortstop or centerfielder at any other position and of course they'll shine defensively.

The biggest problem with Ichiro as a Mariner, imo, was that he blocked RF in an era of power hitting with a 107 wRC+ bat. 7% better than the average player, at a cost of ~20% of overall payroll.

Aubrey Huff played for 5 teams between 2005 and 2011 and he had a 108 wRC+...

[Seattle or Bust]

I suppose relative to league average depends on the era. In 2001, Tony Womack was the worst qualified hitter... he slashed .266/.307/.345/.652... good for a 64 OPS+... JP Crawford is at .197/.301/.324/.625 with an OPS+ of 85.

Offense in 2024 is literal dog shit and Ichiro would have like a 140 OPS+ in today's game during his prime. So not all OPS+ is = imo.

OPS+ is also not very kind to contact hitters considering that slug carries more weight.

I believe slug is important, but not to the scale that OPS favors. To me, a guy who hits .330/.400/.400 is every bit as a valuable as a guy who hits .230/.330/.500. Especially when you consider what his role was/is.

He was a leadoff hitter expected to set the table, runs the bases, and play stellar defense.

Actually OPS+ favors OBP vs Slg. If two hitters on the same team both have a.750 OPS but one has a 400 OBP and a .350 slg and the numbers are reversed .350 OBP/.400 slg the player with the higher OPS+ will always be the OBP guy.

And, Ichiro's numbers would be down in 2024 offensively just like everyone else's.

That's exactly why they use stats like wRC+ and OPS+ to show how your numbers stack up relative to your peers.

Ichiro was only 7% better than his average peers from 2005-2011 with a 107 wRC+. He's not suddenly going to outperform his peers now that the avg fastball is up several mph.

He had a good first 4 years. Good for Ichiro.

From 2005-2011 (he played until 2019) he was most comparable to these world beaters, ranked right there with the great David DeJesus and Lyle Overbay...:

I don't buy that.

If Luis Arraez can hit .350 in this era Ichiro certainly would.

But sure, Ichiro hitting .312/.352/.463/.788 in 2003 for a 112 OPS+ is worse than Justin Turner's .248/.347/.376/.723 114 OPS+ for the Mariners. Yeah fuckin' right.

OPS+ was majorly deflated to the middle by a bevy of high-end power hitters in the early 2000's... in 2001 you had 79 hitters with an OPS over .800... in 2024 you have 39. If you weren't a power hitter in that era your OPS+ was going to to suffer.

[Pharmabro]

We entered this game with a 13.2% to male the postseason!.

Today it is down to 12% because the Astros, Tigers, and Twins all won.

Hopefully the Padres can popa up vs Houston.
and
the Cleveland team can do the same to the Twins

[mostonmike]

Have we got a superstitious manager or what? Some stat says we are 14-1 in City Connect uniforms so we have now played in them all 3 games since Friday. I would guess that’s a managers choice? We would be 151-11 if we played every game this season in the City Connect.

Believe it's the starting pitcher that gets to choose

Interesting stuff, I think I read this somewhere after I had posted. So maybe we have some superstitious pitchers then.

[bpj]

Actually OPS+ favors OBP vs Slg. If two hitters on the same team both have a.750 OPS but one has a 400 OBP and a .350 slg and the numbers are reversed .350 OBP/.400 slg the player with the higher OPS+ will always be the OBP guy.

And, Ichiro's numbers would be down in 2024 offensively just like everyone else's.

That's exactly why they use stats like wRC+ and OPS+ to show how your numbers stack up relative to your peers.

Ichiro was only 7% better than his average peers from 2005-2011 with a 107 wRC+. He's not suddenly going to outperform his peers now that the avg fastball is up several mph.

He had a good first 4 years. Good for Ichiro.

From 2005-2011 (he played until 2019) he was most comparable to these world beaters, ranked right there with the great David DeJesus and Lyle Overbay...:

I don't buy that.

If Luis Arraez can hit .350 in this era Ichiro certainly would.

But sure, Ichiro hitting .312/.352/.463/.788 in 2003 for a 112 OPS+ is worse than Justin Turner's .248/.347/.376/.723 114 OPS+ for the Mariners. Yeah fuckin' right.

OPS+ was majorly deflated to the middle by a bevy of high-end power hitters in the early 2000's... in 2001 you had 79 hitters with an OPS over .800... in 2024 you have 39. If you weren't a power hitter in that era your OPS+ was going to to suffer.

You're looking at batters now as if they just suck compared to then, instead of looking at the reality that it's the pitching that has improved to alter the game.

In 2007 (first yr velo data was available) there were 4 qualified SP's in MLB with 100+ innings that had an average fastball velocity >95mph.

In 2024 there are 33 SP's in MLB with 100+ innings that have an average fastball velocity >95mph.

In 2007 there were 22 qualified RP's in MLB with an average fastball velocity >95mph.

In 2024 there are 89 qualified RP's in MLB with an average fastball velocity >95mph.

In 2007 there were 38 SP's with an avg fastball velocity >92mph.

In 2024 there are 98 SP's with an avg fastball velocity >92mph.

That's an average of 3 per team now compared to 1 per team in 2007.

You get the idea.

It's a different ballgame now and Ichiro wouldn't be doing any better than anyone else imo.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major ... 7&qual=100