2026 Prospects Thread

[D-train]

And then we have Kade Anderson.

Keith Law Ranking: 28
Baseball America: 25
MLB Pipeline: 21

Here's the writeup:

The No. 3 pick in the 2025 draft, Anderson was dominant at LSU last spring, working with five pitches (counting his fastballs separately), showing excellent feel already for the zone and for mixing all of his weapons to get left- and right-handed hitters out. He’s 91-95 and it plays up thanks to a plus changeup that has hitters off-balance, while his slider is his best breaking pitch and I think the Mariners should probably deprecate the curveball, at least for now, to focus on developing the slider. He really repeats his delivery and holds his mechanics very deep into starts — occasionally too deep, as he threw 130-plus pitches twice in his draft year. Even as is, he has at least average command already of a major-league arsenal, maybe without the wipeout pitch to make him a front-line starter just yet, and could pitch in the Mariners’ rotation this year if they need him. There’s at least No. 2 upside here beyond that as he’ll probably pick up some velocity and should tighten the slider with more focus on the pitch.

Has throw 130 pitches twice and then the M's will likely cap him at 70 pitches and five innings and then when he makes the big leagues will warn everyone that he is on an innings limit.

[GL_Storm]

Lazaro Montes

Keith Law Ranking: 71
Baseball America: 58
MLB Pipeline: 43

Here's the writeup:

Montes’ 2025 season was a mixed bag, although it had more positives than negatives. He continued to post extremely high-end exit velocities along with very high hard-hit rates, a result of a combination of elite bat speed and his sheer overall size and strength. He hit 32 homers and had 58 total extra-base hits between High A and Double A. He did take his walks at both levels, though that came with too much tendency to chase pitches out of the zone at Double A (29 percent), even fastballs he should be able to pick up. The main negative last season was that his strikeout and whiff rates continued to trend up; he went from a 27.6 percent K rate in High A to 30.5 percent in Double A, and his swing-and-miss rate went from 35.4 percent in High A to 41.5 percent in Double A. Despite his bat speed, he still misses a lot of fastballs in the upper third, because he’s so tall that he has a hard time covering all areas of the strike zone. Some extremely tall hitters never figure this out. A few do, although it can take time — Aaron Judge wasn’t a big-league regular until he was 25, while Montes only just turned 21 in October. He’s still playing right field, moving around well enough to stay there for now, with a high probability he moves to first because he’s going to get even bigger — just a lower probability of that move than I thought a year ago. He has truly 35-40 homer upside with such hard contact that he could be a big-league regular even with a strikeout rate that’s well above the median, but that also can’t keep increasing as he continues to move up the ladder.

[GL_Storm]

Felnin Celesten

Keith Law Ranking: 77
Baseball America: unranked
MLB Pipeline: unranked

Here's the writeup:

Celesten’s stock took a big hit last year even though he performed reasonably well for a 19-year-old in full-season ball, as he didn’t show a lot of urgency or focus on the field or in the box, and his batted-ball data got much worse year-over-year. He hit .285/.349/.384 in Low A before struggling in an 11-game run in High A to finish the season, but even with peak EVs around 111 he didn’t make nearly as much high-quality contact as he did in 2024. He did miss time in May with vertigo, and was worse across the board after his return, notably in his contact rate as his strikeout rate went from 17 percent before the IL stint to 25 percent after, so it is likely that that was at least a contributing factor in his year. He does still have an outstanding left-handed swing and a good enough right-handed one to stick as a switch-hitter, with frequent hard contact in 2024 in the Arizona Complex League, and can show excellent actions at shortstop with soft hands. There’s too much potential here to ignore, with true All-Star upside as a shortstop with power, but he has to either grow up or get healthy or both.

[GL_Storm]

Jonny Farmelo

Keith Law Ranking: 90
Baseball America: unranked
MLB Pipeline: 78

Here's the writeup:

Farmelo came back intact after tearing his ACL in 2024, still running plus and playing strong defense in center field, but actually played fewer games in 2025 than he did the prior year because he suffered a stress reaction in his rib cage just a month into his return and didn’t get back on the field until early August. He did play in the AFL and didn’t look 100 percent at the plate, hitting plenty of line drives but missing some pitches in the zone he should have hit, while he did run well again with that plus defense. He hasn’t hit lefties well to date in a tiny sample, which is at least something to watch if and when he gets a full season in. He really, really needs to stay on the field this year, as he’s now two-and-a-half years into his pro career and has only 350 regular-season PA. He still has above-average upside between the defense, speed and a line-drive swing that makes hard (but not elite) contact.

[GL_Storm]

I was surprised to see Felnin Celesten on Keith Law's list. He and Farmelo look like potential wild cards for 2026. If they perform and start gathering some hype, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see one or both get traded at the deadline.

[GL_Storm]

Keith Law just came out with his Top 100 list for The Athletic.

He has Colt Emerson at #4, which is higher than both Baseball America (7) and MLB Pipeline (9).

Here is the writeup:

The Mariners’ first pick in the 2023 draft, Emerson is already on the brink of making the big leagues, even though he won’t turn 21 until July. After an injury-shortened 2024 season, Emerson got a full year’s work — exactly 600 PA — while playing at three levels in 2025, hitting .285/.383/.458 overall and making excellent swing decisions until he spent the final week in Triple A, where he was the second-youngest player after Nelson Rada. He has quick hands and generates plus bat speed, combining it with very advanced pitch recognition for his age, as he doesn’t chase much at all (22 percent in High A, where he spent most of the year) and picks up pitch types well already. He started the year putting the ball on the ground too often and appears to have dropped his hands just a little by year-end, with much lower ground-ball rates in Double A and Triple A, although he might want to drop them a little further to at least cement those gains in his line-drive rates. He’s kept the possibility of playing shortstop in the big leagues alive due to his hard work, as he’s a 45 runner and doesn’t have the naturally quick actions you want in a shortstop, and is more likely to end up at another position, probably third base. He really, really looks like he’s going to hit, both in the sense of making contact and hitting the ball hard enough to matter, and will do so while playing some position of value on the dirt. If he ends up at 20-plus homer power, which is probably his ceiling, he’s a superstar. Maybe he’ll hit .300-plus with enough secondary value in walks, doubles and defense to be a superstar even without a gaudy home run total. I’m not betting against him given how fast he’s moved and how hard he works.

#4 prospect in baseball and Superstar do not match the rest of that write up.

It's kind of interesting how highly regarded Emerson is by all of the outlets. Personally, I think #4 is kind of high, but whatever. I just hope he stays healthy.

[D-train]

Lazaro Montes

Keith Law Ranking: 71
Baseball America: 58
MLB Pipeline: 43

Here's the writeup:

Montes’ 2025 season was a mixed bag, although it had more positives than negatives. He continued to post extremely high-end exit velocities along with very high hard-hit rates, a result of a combination of elite bat speed and his sheer overall size and strength. He hit 32 homers and had 58 total extra-base hits between High A and Double A. He did take his walks at both levels, though that came with too much tendency to chase pitches out of the zone at Double A (29 percent), even fastballs he should be able to pick up. The main negative last season was that his strikeout and whiff rates continued to trend up; he went from a 27.6 percent K rate in High A to 30.5 percent in Double A, and his swing-and-miss rate went from 35.4 percent in High A to 41.5 percent in Double A. Despite his bat speed, he still misses a lot of fastballs in the upper third, because he’s so tall that he has a hard time covering all areas of the strike zone. Some extremely tall hitters never figure this out. A few do, although it can take time — Aaron Judge wasn’t a big-league regular until he was 25, while Montes only just turned 21 in October. He’s still playing right field, moving around well enough to stay there for now, with a high probability he moves to first because he’s going to get even bigger — just a lower probability of that move than I thought a year ago. He has truly 35-40 homer upside with such hard contact that he could be a big-league regular even with a strikeout rate that’s well above the median, but that also can’t keep increasing as he continues to move up the ladder.

So he is finally clueing in that he can play RF. He is now 21 yo so the only way he is getting bigger is if he eats too much.

[GL_Storm]

Lazaro Montes

Keith Law Ranking: 71
Baseball America: 58
MLB Pipeline: 43

Here's the writeup:

Montes’ 2025 season was a mixed bag, although it had more positives than negatives. He continued to post extremely high-end exit velocities along with very high hard-hit rates, a result of a combination of elite bat speed and his sheer overall size and strength. He hit 32 homers and had 58 total extra-base hits between High A and Double A. He did take his walks at both levels, though that came with too much tendency to chase pitches out of the zone at Double A (29 percent), even fastballs he should be able to pick up. The main negative last season was that his strikeout and whiff rates continued to trend up; he went from a 27.6 percent K rate in High A to 30.5 percent in Double A, and his swing-and-miss rate went from 35.4 percent in High A to 41.5 percent in Double A. Despite his bat speed, he still misses a lot of fastballs in the upper third, because he’s so tall that he has a hard time covering all areas of the strike zone. Some extremely tall hitters never figure this out. A few do, although it can take time — Aaron Judge wasn’t a big-league regular until he was 25, while Montes only just turned 21 in October. He’s still playing right field, moving around well enough to stay there for now, with a high probability he moves to first because he’s going to get even bigger — just a lower probability of that move than I thought a year ago. He has truly 35-40 homer upside with such hard contact that he could be a big-league regular even with a strikeout rate that’s well above the median, but that also can’t keep increasing as he continues to move up the ladder.

So he is finally clueing in that he can play RF. He is now 21 yo so the only way he is getting bigger is if he eats too much.

I would like the Mariners to show some restraint and just keep him in Arkansas for 2026.

[D-train]

Lazaro Montes

Keith Law Ranking: 71
Baseball America: 58
MLB Pipeline: 43

Here's the writeup:

Montes’ 2025 season was a mixed bag, although it had more positives than negatives. He continued to post extremely high-end exit velocities along with very high hard-hit rates, a result of a combination of elite bat speed and his sheer overall size and strength. He hit 32 homers and had 58 total extra-base hits between High A and Double A. He did take his walks at both levels, though that came with too much tendency to chase pitches out of the zone at Double A (29 percent), even fastballs he should be able to pick up. The main negative last season was that his strikeout and whiff rates continued to trend up; he went from a 27.6 percent K rate in High A to 30.5 percent in Double A, and his swing-and-miss rate went from 35.4 percent in High A to 41.5 percent in Double A. Despite his bat speed, he still misses a lot of fastballs in the upper third, because he’s so tall that he has a hard time covering all areas of the strike zone. Some extremely tall hitters never figure this out. A few do, although it can take time — Aaron Judge wasn’t a big-league regular until he was 25, while Montes only just turned 21 in October. He’s still playing right field, moving around well enough to stay there for now, with a high probability he moves to first because he’s going to get even bigger — just a lower probability of that move than I thought a year ago. He has truly 35-40 homer upside with such hard contact that he could be a big-league regular even with a strikeout rate that’s well above the median, but that also can’t keep increasing as he continues to move up the ladder.

So he is finally clueing in that he can play RF. He is now 21 yo so the only way he is getting bigger is if he eats too much.

I would like the Mariners to show some restraint and just keep him in Arkansas for 2026.

Totally agree. I think they will. He MUST get that K rate down to under 25%

[D-train]

Robinson Ortiz is our breakout candidate. Traded for him from the Dodgers.

https://roundtable.io/sports/mlb/marine ... te-in-2026