The official Hot Stove League Thread 2025-26 Offseason

[Donn Beach]

I'm sure everyone is completely bored with talk of salary caps, and everything associated with it. I will cease and desist on this particular rabbit hole, and get back to the offseason topics. But god it's been a boring offseason!!

I will end by pasting in an article from The Athletic that is as timely as they come - the MLB owners (or a majority thereof) are going to push hard on a salary cap in the wake of the Kyle Tucker signing. See? I'm not the only crazy one!!!

Major League Baseball owners are “raging” in the wake of Kyle Tucker’s free agency agreement with the Los Angeles Dodgers and it is now “a 100 percent certainty” that the owners will push for a salary cap, one person briefed on ownership conversations who was not authorized to speak publicly told The Athletic.

“These guys are going to go for a cap no matter what it takes,” the source said.

Owner frustration reached a boiling point when Tucker agreed to a four-year, $240 million deal to join the Dodgers, the two-time defending world champions who already had the highest payroll in the sport. But what came in the wake of the Tucker news, a three-year, $126 million deal between the New York Mets and Bo Bichette, also raised dander, the source said, adding that the Dodgers and Mets might be the only teams that will try to stand in the way of a cap.

MLB declined comment Tuesday. League commissioner Rob Manfred’s position has long been that no decision has been formally made.

A cap proposal has seemed likely for more than a year now, but many in the industry expected a Tucker signing would galvanize owners. Two other ownership sources took a softer approach, positioning the Tucker deal as validation of their longstanding positions: that revenue and payroll disparity in baseball need change.

Coming off two straight World Series titles, the Dodgers project to again have a payroll over $400 million in 2026. Only three other teams are expected to be over $300 million. Two MLB teams based in Florida, the Miami Marlins and Tampa Bay Rays, project to be under $100 million.

Owners still have to determine what salary floor and ceiling they’re comfortable proposing, a discussion that’s expected to be a topic at next month’s regularly scheduled owners meeting. The floor, in particular, could be a contentious issue for smaller-market teams, some of which might stand to make more money on an operational basis in the current system. The value of all 30 franchises would instantly rise if a cap is introduced, however.

It would take at least eight owners of 30 to effectively hold up a labor deal, but when it comes to a cap, internal politics will not be the owners’ biggest hurdle. Players have historically been willing to miss many games to avoid a cap system.

“We just completed one of the greatest seasons in MLB history, with unprecedented fan interest and revenues,” union head Tony Clark said in a statement. “While the free-agent market is far from over, it is gratifying to see players at all levels being rewarded for their incredible accomplishments by those clubs that are trying to win without excuses.”

Manfred has tried to walk a fine line publicly both when addressing the Dodgers as well as when speaking on the possibility of a cap proposal.

“I admire what the Dodger organization has done on both sides of the house,” Manfred said in his most recent public comments on the team, in an interview with WFAN in New York this month. “They’ve done a phenomenal job on the revenue side, and they’ve made great baseball decisions. And, you know, getting those two together is harder than you think. And everything they’ve done (has been) completely within the rules.”

The interviewer, Craig Carton, suggested to Manfred that MLB was better off with villains like the Dodgers.

“A large market, like the Dodgers, does drive your business. Whether you say ‘large-market villain,’ whatever, a team that’s winning a lot can drive the market,” Manfred said. “I think the advantage baseball has is it’s a very random sport. The chances of stringing that many (titles) together I think are fairly limited.

“But I do get concerned. We try to listen to our fans, and we do hear from fans in a lot of markets that, ‘Gee whiz, when we look at the resources they have compared to the resources that are available in our market, we don’t feel like it’s quite a fair shake,’ and that’s an issue we’re going to have to deal with.”

Negotiations between players and owners over the next collective bargaining agreement are likely to begin early in the upcoming regular season. The current deal expires in December, when a lockout is likely to begin.

In that radio interview, Manfred criticized Clark and the union for ruling out a cap proposal even before negotiations begin. Top player agent Scott Boras thinks that MLB’s focus should be on media rights deals, where he believes the league has fallen short.

“The Dodgers are not a system issue,” Boras said in a statement. “They are the benefactors of acquiring Shohei Ohtani, MLB’s Astatine. Short-lived and rare. No other player offers such past or present. Ohtani is the genius of elite performance and additional revenue streams of near $250 million annually for a short window of history.

“The process of acquiring Ohtani was one of fairness and equal opportunity throughout the league,” Boras continued. “A rare, short-lived element is not a reason to alter the required anchored chemistry of MLB. The mandate of stability to gain media rights optimums is the true solution to league success.”

The biggest question seems to be not whether a cap proposal will be made, but which side caves on the matter first: do owners hold steady on such a proposal into a work stoppage that costs regular-season games in 2027? Do players cave? And how long does the staredown last?

Both sides will project strength, but little is likely to be decipherable until crunch time. During the 2021-22 lockout, a deal was reached in March ‘22, just in time to preserve a full 162-game slate.

It might be noted the previous Dodgers owner was in bankruptcy when he sold, the franchise was a mess. The current owners built the death star it wasn't just purchased. Maybe the rules need changing. They changed the rules for wilt chamberlain but they didn't blame him for being tall

[D-train]

Dane Dunning is fine to stash in Tacoma. Chances are good he stays there the entire season and never sees the major league roster.

Sure but how is that interesting. It isn't in the least.

[Seattle or Bust]

From what I'm looking at, he'll be someone new for the Rangers that we can beat up on. He's a little above-average at best.

Former top prospect rounded into form the last 2x seasons with FIPS in the mid 3's and hitting his prime... fastball from the left side touches 98. 3 WAR each of the last 2 seasons while playing on awful Nationals teams.

Rangers got a potential no. 1 or 2 for a bunch of scrap for the next 2 seasons.

Why the M's wouldn't up the offer on a trade like this and then offload Castillo's $$ is beyond me.

Where in the heck do you get that they traded scrap? Fien was last year's #1 pick and 12th overall which is about where all the draft experts thought he would fall. The Rangers are gambling on Gore, is he the all star that he was in the 1st half of last year or the 2nd half injured bozo who was 1-7 6.75 ERA?

The equivalent of the M's trading Cole Young as an 18 year old. Not a single top 100 player. The bulk of it 25 year old AAAA players like Michael Morales.

It was a bunch of scrap.

I bet you he finishes with a sub 3.50 ERA in '26.

[Seattle or Bust]

Also, if the Nats are selling...

Give me CJ Abrams.

I will never say a negative thing again about Dipoto.

[D-train]

Also, if the Nats are selling...

Give me CJ Abrams.

I will never say a negative thing again about Dipoto.

Oh no they need to give Young and Ben "Runway".

[DavidGee24]

We signed Dane Dunning and all the Podcasters are saying INTERESTING! lol

Wait, isn't that the one who replaced Pamela Anderson as the Tool Time girl on Home Improvement?

[GL_Storm]

Dane Dunning is fine to stash in Tacoma. Chances are good he stays there the entire season and never sees the major league roster.

Sure but how is that interesting. It isn't in the least.

It's sort of mildly interesting.

[harmony]

The Mariners add pitching depth with Cooper Criswell:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/01/ ... swell.html

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-p ... tching-mlb

[D-train]

The level of ignorance of some of the fanbase is truly astounding.

[Bil522]

Former top prospect rounded into form the last 2x seasons with FIPS in the mid 3's and hitting his prime... fastball from the left side touches 98. 3 WAR each of the last 2 seasons while playing on awful Nationals teams.

Rangers got a potential no. 1 or 2 for a bunch of scrap for the next 2 seasons.

Why the M's wouldn't up the offer on a trade like this and then offload Castillo's $$ is beyond me.

Where in the heck do you get that they traded scrap? Fien was last year's #1 pick and 12th overall which is about where all the draft experts thought he would fall. The Rangers are gambling on Gore, is he the all star that he was in the 1st half of last year or the 2nd half injured bozo who was 1-7 6.75 ERA?

The equivalent of the M's trading Cole Young as an 18 year old. Not a single top 100 player. The bulk of it 25 year old AAAA players like Michael Morales.

It was a bunch of scrap.

I bet you he finishes with a sub 3.50 ERA in '26.

Put your money where your mouth is