Ms vs Angels

[D-train]

And it's analytics, what can be qualified it's based on taking the "human" element out

Great, but I will never apply that to a Jarred Kelenic and like a robot go "beep, bop, boop... he will hit for a .729 OPS and account for 1.1 WAR."

I certainly won't ever go say, "well ZiPS projects this" as if it has any influence on how he's actually going to perform.

I may say that's probably an accurate statement for a Tom Murphy for instance, but not a kid who has the tools to be a superstar and has only played 90 games. We have NO idea how he's gonna do.

The projections of the major services take into account not only Jarred Kelenic's 2021 MLB stats but his age, progression and minor league stats.

Kelenic carries understandable risks but I'm buying into his upside in hopes the projections are conservative.

Doh!!

[D-train]

The projections of the major services take into account not only Jarred Kelenic's 2021 MLB stats but his age, progression and minor league stats.

Kelenic carries understandable risks but I'm buying into his upside in hopes the projections are conservative.

I'm hoping that conservative is a massive understatement. If it's not, the M's now have a little hole in the offense that they can't really afford.

Like I said, I'm hoping for upper .700's OPS at worst. I'm expecting lower .800's. He's supposed to be an anomaly.

Happy to wager with an over under on .770 OPS. You take the high road and I'll take the low road.

Whoa! History repeats!! lol At least you have adjusted down to .700 after he put up a .534 OPS.

[D-train]

Not saying he will or won't, but how do u think he'll fair with the shift being banned?

I think teams will still shift by moving their LF'er to short RF in extreme pull cases.

Not sure Kelenic falls into that category, but we'd find out pretty quickly what the other teams are doing.

He definitely pulls quite a few to 1B and 2B, but his spray chart doesn't look like an overwhelming amount that aren't fielded by the 1B or 2B, but there would surely be some more sneak in.

The problem is he doesn't need a 20 or 30 point increase to be acceptable, he'd need to gain like 100 batting average points just to be at .240.

Kelenic only had 23 hits all season out of 163 at bats (for a .141 batting average).

To get up to a semi-acceptable .239 batting average, he would have needed an extra 16 hits.

There's a decent case that could be made for him getting 5 or so extra hits. His staunchest supporters will no doubt see more, but nearly every LH hitter has a similar chart. And right handed hitters the opposite obviously.

I dont think banning the shift will come anywhere close to making the difference he would need, especially if teams just move their LF'er when the situation calls for it.

I did a thorough analysis and estimated the shift ban would have got him from .141 BA to about .170. So if he improves and with the shift I could see him about in line with the BR projection:

jkp.JPG (24.08 KiB) Viewed 295 times

[bpj]

Not saying he will or won't, but how do u think he'll fair with the shift being banned?

I think teams will still shift by moving their LF'er to short RF in extreme pull cases.

Not sure Kelenic falls into that category, but we'd find out pretty quickly what the other teams are doing.

He definitely pulls quite a few to 1B and 2B, but his spray chart doesn't look like an overwhelming amount that aren't fielded by the 1B or 2B, but there would surely be some more sneak in.

The problem is he doesn't need a 20 or 30 point increase to be acceptable, he'd need to gain like 100 batting average points just to be at .240.

Kelenic only had 23 hits all season out of 163 at bats (for a .141 batting average).

To get up to a semi-acceptable .239 batting average, he would have needed an extra 16 hits.

There's a decent case that could be made for him getting 5 or so extra hits. His staunchest supporters will no doubt see more, but nearly every LH hitter has a similar chart. And right handed hitters the opposite obviously.

I dont think banning the shift will come anywhere close to making the difference he would need, especially if teams just move their LF'er when the situation calls for it.

I did a thorough analysis and estimated the shift ban would have got him from .141 BA to about .170. So if he improves and with the shift I could see him about in line with the BR projection:

jkp.JPG

That makes sense, that would have added 5 hits to his total.

23/163=.141
28/163=.171

[D-train]

I think teams will still shift by moving their LF'er to short RF in extreme pull cases.

Not sure Kelenic falls into that category, but we'd find out pretty quickly what the other teams are doing.

He definitely pulls quite a few to 1B and 2B, but his spray chart doesn't look like an overwhelming amount that aren't fielded by the 1B or 2B, but there would surely be some more sneak in.

The problem is he doesn't need a 20 or 30 point increase to be acceptable, he'd need to gain like 100 batting average points just to be at .240.

Kelenic only had 23 hits all season out of 163 at bats (for a .141 batting average).

To get up to a semi-acceptable .239 batting average, he would have needed an extra 16 hits.

There's a decent case that could be made for him getting 5 or so extra hits. His staunchest supporters will no doubt see more, but nearly every LH hitter has a similar chart. And right handed hitters the opposite obviously.

I dont think banning the shift will come anywhere close to making the difference he would need, especially if teams just move their LF'er when the situation calls for it.

I did a thorough analysis and estimated the shift ban would have got him from .141 BA to about .170. So if he improves and with the shift I could see him about in line with the BR projection:

jkp.JPG

That makes sense, that would have added 5 hits to his total.

23/163=.141
28/163=.171

Yep and 7 of those hits were HRs so that would increase is non HR hits from 16 to 21. Pretty significant increase when you consider he probably go at least a couple hits because of the shift.

[Seattle or Bust]

Turns out I was a year late on the Kelenic turn around.

But at least I was close

Oh ya and... FUCK ZIPS.