So it begins, The official Hot Stove League Thread 2024-25 Offseason

[bpj]

Would be a good time for one of the Mariners writers to go over "Trader Jerry's" history with trades.

Off the top of my head, here are the useful players he traded away.


Screenshot_20250111_001555_DuckDuckGo.jpg
Screenshot_20250111_001242_DuckDuckGo.jpg


Anybody have a list of all the useful players he's brought in by trade?

Mitch Haniger, Tom Murphy, Ty France, Andres Munoz, Jarred Kelenic... who am I missing?

Screenshot_20250111_002236_DuckDuckGo.jpg
Screenshot_20250111_002505_DuckDuckGo.jpg

Randy, Raley, Anderson, Swanson, Brash, Boyd, Saurez, Narváez, Edwin E., Segura, Span, Leake, Pazos, Colome,,,,

Good list.

Once you start adding up the value they sent away in the trades, and add the salary the players earned, not looking like much excess value in that group either.

On top of that, guys like Span who were brought in instead of going after an actual corner outfielder that's actually good, hurt the team in their own way.

Could even add Suarez to the other side of it also. Sent him away for salary relief when we needed a bat and a 3B...

[Pharmabro]

Would be a good time for one of the Mariners writers to go over "Trader Jerry's" history with trades.

Off the top of my head, here are the useful players he traded away.


Screenshot_20250111_001555_DuckDuckGo.jpg
Screenshot_20250111_001242_DuckDuckGo.jpg


Anybody have a list of all the useful players he's brought in by trade?

Mitch Haniger, Tom Murphy, Ty France, Andres Munoz, Jarred Kelenic... who am I missing?

Screenshot_20250111_002236_DuckDuckGo.jpg
Screenshot_20250111_002505_DuckDuckGo.jpg

Randy, Raley, Anderson, Swanson, Brash, Boyd, Saurez, Narváez, Edwin E., Segura, Span, Leake, Pazos, Colome,,,,

Good list.

Once you start adding up the value they sent away in the trades, and add the salary the players earned, not looking like much excess value in that group either.

On top of that, guys like Span who were brought in instead of going after an actual corner outfielder that's actually good, hurt the team in their own way.

Could even add Suarez to the other side of it also. Sent him away for salary relief when we needed a bat and a 3B...

I mean it is economics, right? In a trade you are partnering with another executive that is trying to beat you. There are tankathon trades like when the Nat's decided their window closed and some of their players are used to try to regenerate a young core. But in the long story of Dipoet's trade history you have salary dumps where you attached Cano to Diaz to get prospects like JK and Dunn back but also took a shorter term bad contract back in Bruce plus cash to NYM. In other words, in a large sample volume the net +/- is going to trend towards 0. Net in and out, you kinda get goofy with terms like WAR, $, control, budget, team goals, etc. but at the end of the day the economics should roughly =ZERO.

[Pharmabro]

Another day, another day of nothing!

41 Days until game 1 of Spring Training!

[Lamda]

I know its like ok u waited out the market - now you could get Alonso for like 5/150 at this point if you wanted which is way less than he wanted. 5 years on a 30 year old is just fine and you're only looking at a possible down year on his last most likely. Then you solved your offensive problems while keeping their prized rotation intact.

[bpj]

Randy, Raley, Anderson, Swanson, Brash, Boyd, Saurez, Narváez, Edwin E., Segura, Span, Leake, Pazos, Colome,,,,

Good list.

Once you start adding up the value they sent away in the trades, and add the salary the players earned, not looking like much excess value in that group either.

On top of that, guys like Span who were brought in instead of going after an actual corner outfielder that's actually good, hurt the team in their own way.

Could even add Suarez to the other side of it also. Sent him away for salary relief when we needed a bat and a 3B...

I mean it is economics, right? In a trade you are partnering with another executive that is trying to beat you. There are tankathon trades like when the Nat's decided their window closed and some of their players are used to try to regenerate a young core. But in the long story of Dipoet's trade history you have salary dumps where you attached Cano to Diaz to get prospects like JK and Dunn back but also took a shorter term bad contract back in Bruce plus cash to NYM. In other words, in a large sample volume the net +/- is going to trend towards 0. Net in and out, you kinda get goofy with terms like WAR, $, control, budget, team goals, etc. but at the end of the day the economics should roughly =ZERO.

I think that's probably accurate, trades should work out about even in general.

And then teams can put themselves over the top by adding free agents. A critical step the Mariners can't complete.

Unfortunately, Dipoto hasn't come close to even. He's given up much more than he's taken in.

We sure could have used Ketel Marte, Chris Taylor, Pablo Lopez, and Freddy Peralta. Probably would've been better off keeping Cano and Diaz instead of wasting years waiting for Kelenic to earn his spot, and then fail, also.

They certainly didn't reinvest those dollars like we expected when they took their "step back". So basically all the step back was, was budget cuts and settling for six years+ of subsequent mediocrity.

[GL_Storm]

There's a very good chance this will be DiPoto's most successful offseason.

[D-train]

I know its like ok u waited out the market - now you could get Alonso for like 5/150 at this point if you wanted which is way less than he wanted. 5 years on a 30 year old is just fine and you're only looking at a possible down year on his last most likely. Then you solved your offensive problems while keeping their prized rotation intact.

I am not sure why people always do a year by year analysis as whether a contract is worth it in the last year or two. It is completely unsound financial analysis. Maybe I am at an advantage because of my 7 years of banking experience and 77% of a Masters in Finance but it is completely IRRELEVANT how long a contract is. The Value proposition is total WAR during the life of the contract minues the net present value of the salary. Longer contracts are better for the Org because it defers money.

It is better for the to have a 20 year contract paying a guy $10M a year than a 3 year contract paying a guy $50M a year even thought the last 15 years of the former contract the guy is getting drunk on the beach.

Also, it doesn't matter if during a 5 year $20M contract a guy puts up five seasons of 3 WAR or 3 seasons of 5 WAR and 2 seasons of zero WAR. Completely Irrelevant. Both are equally good contacts and yield a value of $120M of WAR ($8M x 5 x 3 WAR) vs. $100M in salary = $20M surplus.

[D-train]

There's a very good chance this will be DiPoto's most successful offseason.

Yep maybe he has learned from his mistakes.

[GL_Storm]

There's a very good chance this will be DiPoto's most successful offseason.

Yep maybe he has learned from his mistakes.

Mistakes = most of what he does in the offseason. Doing nothing should therefore result in fewer mistakes and probably a better start to the season.

[Donn Beach]

Yeah, took that as sarcasm, the key to a successful off season for him would be to do nothing... Don't just do something, stand there!