Decision to hold Raleigh on Arozarena's double (w/ image)

[Vogelbomb]

Screenshot 2025-04-07 at 13-56-43 Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) _ X.png (206.83 KiB) Viewed 208 times

Was able to rip this off the video Seattle Mariners X account posted of Randy's double down the line.

If you look closely you can see both the ball (about 20 ft from Adames) and at the bottom you can see Cal already at 3b slamming the brakes. Also, note Adames' positioning. He's well into LF. I would estimate he's looking at a 185 ft throw to home.

It's hard to be exact with this estimate because I don't know how hard the LF's throw was to Adames, but given Cal has already reached 3b here, I would estimate him able to get 30 feet down the line before the ball is in Adames' glove. Then it's pop time and the need for 185-foot laser to hit Bailey before Cal covers 60 feet and touches home.

Also the situation is tie game, 2 outs, top nine. I don't like this stop sign one bit. I think Cal has a 70 percent chance to score here (just my own prognostication), it might even be better, as long as he doesn't trip over himself going down the line, and I think you have to force the issue on the road.

It would have led to a 5-4 lead even if Mastro walks again and Garver pops out again. That brings on Munoz and not Santos (both were warming)

[Vogelbomb]

It's amazing how one decision impacts others. The butterfly effect. Say Negron sends Cal and he scores. Even if we assume the same outcomes with Mastro and Garver, the M's head into btm 9 with 5-4 lead and bring on Munoz.

Does Munoz walk first hitter? Does Robles go flying into the RF net and injure himself on a play? Do M's pull out the win?

We don't know but I like their odds

[Sibelius Hindemith]

The Ms just need to be more aggressive in general. They could have had whoever was up to bat with 2 outs in the 11th inning vs SF "lose his grip" on the bat on the follow through sending it into the umpire's facemask or groin area at about 70mph. What's he gonna do about it?

[mostonmike]

Negrón has just switched in the off season from 1st base coach to 3rd. Is that common? (ask Jeeves and AI isn’t my friend in answering). Did that contribute to his bad call? Do first base coaches become conditioned to be cautious because aggression just costs free outs to the oppo? Questions outside my experience so apologies if they are dumb or naive.

I am tempted to say we have a bad third base coach if he’s not sending Cal there. We probably win the game if we took a lead into the bottom of 9th. That’s after Muñoz would’ve walked the first runner like Santos did anyway.

[gil]

Just wondering if it would have been easier for the 3B coach to send a faster baserunner. If we had one on the bench and if (I assume) Cal is not the speediest guy. (It seems it's good to have a speedster available for late inning situations.)

[D-train]

Screenshot 2025-04-07 at 13-56-43 Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) _ X.png
Was able to rip this off the video Seattle Mariners X account posted of Randy's double down the line.

If you look closely you can see both the ball (about 20 ft from Adames) and at the bottom you can see Cal already at 3b slamming the brakes. Also, note Adames' positioning. He's well into LF. I would estimate he's looking at a 185 ft throw to home.

It's hard to be exact with this estimate because I don't know how hard the LF's throw was to Adames, but given Cal has already reached 3b here, I would estimate him able to get 30 feet down the line before the ball is in Adames' glove. Then it's pop time and the need for 185-foot laser to hit Bailey before Cal covers 60 feet and touches home.

Also the situation is tie game, 2 outs, top nine. I don't like this stop sign one bit. I think Cal has a 70 percent chance to score here (just my own prognostication), it might even be better, as long as he doesn't trip over himself going down the line, and I think you have to force the issue on the road.

It would have led to a 5-4 lead even if Mastro walks again and Garver pops out again. That brings on Munoz and not Santos (both were warming)

You are saying that Cal can run 30 ft in the same amount of time that a thrown ball travels 20 feet??? Or are you saying IF Cal didn't get the stop sign he would already be around third and head home at that point?

[D-train]

MM: Everyone hated Acta and now everyone hates Negron. Third base coaches are like O linemen. They are only noticed when they F up. I have been following the M's for almost 50 years and have NEVER heard anyone compliment a 3B coach.

[Seattle or Bust]

Cal had a 0% chance to score on that play.

You know what a better idea would be?

Not hitting .110 w. RISP for the season and sending up the world's shittiest hitter in Mitch Garver try to drive the runs in.

And before you say, "Garver is a good hitter."



NO. HE'S NOT.

And here is your evidence that the M's offense was also dogshit before the year started. 6x players with the top 25 WORST batting averages among hitters with at least 400 AB's.

[DavidGee24]

Screenshot 2025-04-07 at 13-56-43 Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) _ X.png
Was able to rip this off the video Seattle Mariners X account posted of Randy's double down the line.

If you look closely you can see both the ball (about 20 ft from Adames) and at the bottom you can see Cal already at 3b slamming the brakes. Also, note Adames' positioning. He's well into LF. I would estimate he's looking at a 185 ft throw to home.

It's hard to be exact with this estimate because I don't know how hard the LF's throw was to Adames, but given Cal has already reached 3b here, I would estimate him able to get 30 feet down the line before the ball is in Adames' glove. Then it's pop time and the need for 185-foot laser to hit Bailey before Cal covers 60 feet and touches home.

Also the situation is tie game, 2 outs, top nine. I don't like this stop sign one bit. I think Cal has a 70 percent chance to score here (just my own prognostication), it might even be better, as long as he doesn't trip over himself going down the line, and I think you have to force the issue on the road.

It would have led to a 5-4 lead even if Mastro walks again and Garver pops out again. That brings on Munoz and not Santos (both were warming)

You know, there's a reason why you're likely the only person on the entire planet who thinks this. This is just laughable, bro. And this is coming from someone who believes that with two outs you should be highly aggressive in sending runners home. Cal would have out by a country mile and everyone except you knows it.

Now why don't you start a thread about how good of a hitter Garver is.

[Vogelbomb]

You are saying that Cal can run 30 ft in the same amount of time that a thrown ball travels 20 feet??? Or are you saying IF Cal didn't get the stop sign he would already be around third and head home at that point?

Obviously you factor in his carried momentum. He wouldn't have stopped so you're talking about somewhere around 4-6 strides past the base before the ball is received by Adames.