some issues in Arizona

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Donn Beach
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some issues in Arizona

Post by Donn Beach » Tue Aug 19, 2025 4:53 am

"I know there's an elephant in the room and I'll just say what I want to say about it," D-backs manager Torey Lovullo said. "I know that Ketel talked to you guys and I'm proud of him for doing that. That's not easy for him to do. I know he showed some vulnerability and I'm really proud of him for digging in the way that he did.

"What I'll say about Ketel are the things that I know -- he's a great teammate, he's a great young man, he plays hard every single day for the Arizona Diamondbacks. He just wants to win baseball games. That's it."

Marte has dealt with a torrent of criticism after a report in the Arizona Republic last week said that some teammates were frustrated with the second baseman's behavior over the past month and that his absence after the All-Star break might have partially caused the team's collapse before the trade deadline.

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Donn Beach
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Re: some issues in Arizona

Post by Donn Beach » Sat Aug 23, 2025 5:18 pm

no interest?


[Nightengale] The worst-kept secret in the Arizona Diamondbacks organization is out: They will listen to offers on All-Star second baseman Ketel Marte this winter, knowing that while Marte is extremely talented, he can be a diva in the clubhouse, agitating his teammates and coaching staff.

GL_Storm
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Re: some issues in Arizona

Post by GL_Storm » Sat Aug 23, 2025 5:35 pm

Donn Beach wrote:
Sat Aug 23, 2025 5:18 pm
no interest?


[Nightengale] The worst-kept secret in the Arizona Diamondbacks organization is out: They will listen to offers on All-Star second baseman Ketel Marte this winter, knowing that while Marte is extremely talented, he can be a diva in the clubhouse, agitating his teammates and coaching staff.
We'll see what happens. I think if they want to move him, there'll be a bunch of teams interested, but probably not the Mariners.

Seattle or Bust
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Re: some issues in Arizona

Post by Seattle or Bust » Sat Aug 23, 2025 5:38 pm

I think the M's would have been players for Marte if he was available a couple of years ago... but acquiring him at age 32 where he's owed $22ish million a year until he's 36 doesn't see very Mariners.

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Donn Beach
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Re: some issues in Arizona

Post by Donn Beach » Sat Aug 23, 2025 6:00 pm

Seattle or Bust wrote:
Sat Aug 23, 2025 5:38 pm
I think the M's would have been players for Marte if he was available a couple of years ago... but acquiring him at age 32 where he's owed $22ish million a year until he's 36 doesn't see very Mariners.
yeah, not saying the mariners would be, and it be surprising if he was actually available, but if and when a premier talent is made available which he is, a team should be willing to listen. That is the nature of the sport, real talent is dear.

Pharmabro
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Re: some issues in Arizona

Post by Pharmabro » Sat Aug 23, 2025 7:07 pm

Seattle or Bust wrote:
Sat Aug 23, 2025 5:38 pm
I think the M's would have been players for Marte if he was available a couple of years ago... but acquiring him at age 32 where he's owed $22ish million a year until he's 36 doesn't see very Mariners.
That is not true at all.
2026 AGE 32 $15,000,000 + $5.5M based on 2025 PA and MVP -$600k pro-rated signing bonus)

2027 33 $12,000,000 + $5.5M based on 2026 PA and MVP voting $600k paid by Arizona

2028 34 Arizona Diamondbacks $20,000,000 + $5.5M (2027 PA and MVP voting)

2029 35 Arizona Diamondbacks $22,000,000 + ($5.5M 2028 PA and MVP voting)

2030 36 Arizona Diamondbacks $22,000,000 +( $5.5M 2029 PA and MVP voting)

2031 37 Arizona Diamondbacks *$11,500,000 $11.5M Player Option

1st year he is at 14.4 M base, #2 11.4M base, the last year.

I ran into a problem here making this argument. I remember an Uber athletic fast SS that came up in the M's org. But he is 26th percentile in sprint speed 26.6 FPS (about what JP is 26.7 FPS)
BUT:
Ketel still has an 84-percentile range I presume as a 2B vs JPs 2nd percentile range as a SS. I know JP is graded more on a higher scale
AND:
Ketel's arm is at 84 MPH 49th percentile vs JP's 78.9 which is 18th percentile.

I am at least a little interested. Do I think there is 96 million in spare value with his contract, physical limitations, and positional value? No., or um maybe but it would have to be a preferred package from our side.

GL_Storm
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Re: some issues in Arizona

Post by GL_Storm » Sat Aug 23, 2025 7:35 pm

I think what's more interesting is that this is a premier player that we now have an idea will be moved in the offseason. It isn't definite, but it's more likely than it was before. As I've said before, I think we're going to see a lot of players move this offseason. A major reason for that is the expiration of the CBA and the possibility of a lost season in 2027. More owners than ever before would like to see a salary cap, and I think Manfred would really like for that to be the crowning achievement of his tenure as commissioner. So I think that possibility of no baseball at all in 2027 could trigger a number of teams to get aggressive in remaking their rosters.

Seattle or Bust
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Re: some issues in Arizona

Post by Seattle or Bust » Sat Aug 23, 2025 7:38 pm

Pharmabro wrote:
Sat Aug 23, 2025 7:07 pm
Seattle or Bust wrote:
Sat Aug 23, 2025 5:38 pm
I think the M's would have been players for Marte if he was available a couple of years ago... but acquiring him at age 32 where he's owed $22ish million a year until he's 36 doesn't see very Mariners.
That is not true at all.
2026 AGE 32 $15,000,000 + $5.5M based on 2025 PA and MVP -$600k pro-rated signing bonus)

2027 33 $12,000,000 + $5.5M based on 2026 PA and MVP voting $600k paid by Arizona

2028 34 Arizona Diamondbacks $20,000,000 + $5.5M (2027 PA and MVP voting)

2029 35 Arizona Diamondbacks $22,000,000 + ($5.5M 2028 PA and MVP voting)

2030 36 Arizona Diamondbacks $22,000,000 +( $5.5M 2029 PA and MVP voting)

2031 37 Arizona Diamondbacks *$11,500,000 $11.5M Player Option

1st year he is at 14.4 M base, #2 11.4M base, the last year.

I ran into a problem here making this argument. I remember an Uber athletic fast SS that came up in the M's org. But he is 26th percentile in sprint speed 26.6 FPS (about what JP is 26.7 FPS)
BUT:
Ketel still has an 84-percentile range I presume as a 2B vs JPs 2nd percentile range as a SS. I know JP is graded more on a higher scale
AND:
Ketel's arm is at 84 MPH 49th percentile vs JP's 78.9 which is 18th percentile.

I am at least a little interested. Do I think there is 96 million in spare value with his contract, physical limitations, and positional value? No., or um maybe but it would have to be a preferred package from our side.
Ya, so about $22M a year until he's 36 lol.

I'm sorry I didn't break down the entire contract.

They aren't trading to pay a guy who is making that money into his late 30's when they have nothing but young middle infield talent in the minors.

Pharmabro
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Re: some issues in Arizona

Post by Pharmabro » Sat Aug 23, 2025 8:37 pm

Over the last 5 years JP has averaged over 3.5 WAR per year and a 107 ERA+ and is owed 12M. The last time MLTC did a JP trade, and he was at 28.9M With just 1 year remaining? 15 to 20M

AZ is doing a little mini rebuild or re-imagine JD style. JP has no risk and is a rental who has the upside of gathering more prospects and JP hitting in a high-altitude bandbox in a contract year?

Why and why not. JP could play SS and Ketel 3B or the other way around. at least for year 1. Then, whoever comes up as the SS out of (Young, Colt, Felnin, and to a wider extent Rivas, Bliss, Pete, Arroyo,) I know some of those guys are further out than 2027, pegged as 2B, etc, etc.

Ketel at his age does not have 100M in surplus value. He can play 2B or LF now. He could convert to a slightly above average range - armed 3B.

Az gets Felnin 19.7M, Cijintje 16.7M, Logan Evans 10.1 M, Luke Stevenson C 19M no MLBTC value yet but he is ranked 1 spot below Felnin. On Luke he was the 3rd ranked catcher picked the draft drafted 1 behind the 2nd who was ranked 1 spot in front of him so basically the #2A and 2B both were 50 point overall prospects. Behind #1 11th overall ranked 55-point C Ike Irish. That is 64.5M and 4 top 100 types.

I just don't see going any higher than that. He could play 2B next year and move Young to SS, JP to 3rd. You could ship off JP as part of the package which would increase the outgoing to 80-85M and count on Ketel/ Young on 2 out of 2B, SS, 3B. The 3rd position you play Bliss, Rivas, or maybe Arroyo.

I just think after a couple of years Ketel is a below average defender at 2B, SS, 3B, LF, or is a DH.

I don't know if at age 32 given his contract, clubhouse, and everything else do you value him like that.

What do you guys think?

Pharmabro
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Re: some issues in Arizona

Post by Pharmabro » Sat Aug 23, 2025 8:40 pm

Seattle or Bust wrote:
Sat Aug 23, 2025 7:38 pm
Pharmabro wrote:
Sat Aug 23, 2025 7:07 pm
Seattle or Bust wrote:
Sat Aug 23, 2025 5:38 pm
I think the M's would have been players for Marte if he was available a couple of years ago... but acquiring him at age 32 where he's owed $22ish million a year until he's 36 doesn't see very Mariners.
That is not true at all.
2026 AGE 32 $15,000,000 + $5.5M based on 2025 PA and MVP -$600k pro-rated signing bonus)

2027 33 $12,000,000 + $5.5M based on 2026 PA and MVP voting $600k paid by Arizona

2028 34 Arizona Diamondbacks $20,000,000 + $5.5M (2027 PA and MVP voting)

2029 35 Arizona Diamondbacks $22,000,000 + ($5.5M 2028 PA and MVP voting)

2030 36 Arizona Diamondbacks $22,000,000 +( $5.5M 2029 PA and MVP voting)

2031 37 Arizona Diamondbacks *$11,500,000 $11.5M Player Option

1st year he is at 14.4 M base, #2 11.4M base, the last year.

I ran into a problem here making this argument. I remember an Uber athletic fast SS that came up in the M's org. But he is 26th percentile in sprint speed 26.6 FPS (about what JP is 26.7 FPS)
BUT:
Ketel still has an 84-percentile range I presume as a 2B vs JPs 2nd percentile range as a SS. I know JP is graded more on a higher scale
AND:
Ketel's arm is at 84 MPH 49th percentile vs JP's 78.9 which is 18th percentile.

I am at least a little interested. Do I think there is 96 million in spare value with his contract, physical limitations, and positional value? No., or um maybe but it would have to be a preferred package from our side.
Ya, so about $22M a year until he's 36 lol.

I'm sorry I didn't break down the entire contract.

They aren't trading to pay a guy who is making that money into his late 30's when they have nothing but young middle infield talent in the minors.
You are counting on that 5.5 M dollar bonus. That bonus counts on health PA's and excellence top # MVP votes. If he does get health and top 5 MVP votes the next 5 years, are you regretting the dollars?

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