Offseason Plan Cause...Why Not?

[Big_Maple]

General Musings on the 2026 Offseason:

Pitching: the starting pitching staff seems rock solid. For all of the talk this year about them being over-hyped, I think we had one of the better rotations in baseball, and we are keeping all of the starters from last year. Like many of you, I would not be opposed to dealing Castillo – particularly if he brought a big bat in return. He is expensive and getting older, and there are signs of decline (velocity loss, harder contact, slight drop in dominance). They could plug Hancock into the rotation and/or go out and sign one of the many free agent pitchers to a 1-year deal. Worse case scenario: Castillo stays and eats innings and has flashes of dominance.

Bullpen: We definitely need help here. Brash, Munoz, Speier and Bazardo are stalwarts, but pretty much everyone else is potentially expendable. Seattle never locks in non-elite, non-Muñoz relievers. They churn. That said, if they were willing to spend big – really big – Edwin Diaz opted out of his deal with the Mets. It would take a metric shit ton of money that the M’s will likely never spend on a reliever, but imagine a back ended, late inning bullpen with Brash, Bazardo, Munoz and Diaz and the closer. Damn.

More realistically – names like Jimmy Herget (a low-velo, ultra-funky, side-arm righty whose weird angle/shape produces deception and soft contact way more than strikeouts) or Kenley Jansen (big, late-inning closer who throws mostly cutters that hitters know are coming but still can’t barrel – still dominant despite his age).

Position players: let’s be clear – Seattle is not going to aggressively pursue Kyle Tucker or Bellinger or Bregman. Would these guys help the team? Yep. But the M’s aren’t going big on any top, top tier FA.

With Mitch Garver gone, almost certainly Ford will be the backup catcher and DH. The M’s They also ought to negotiate a deal with Polanco before the week is through.

Holes: 1B, 3B, 2B, a corner bat that is a 125–140 wRC+ anchor.

Ideally: they loved Naylor. Fans loved Naylor. Naylor seemed to love Seattle. He’s too good of a fit not to go out make him THE big splash in the offseason. Failing that, they should have a backup plan like Ryan O’Hearn.

2B – re-sign Polanco. He’s a known entity. He had a great year with the M’s in 2025, and he was clutch in the post season. Get him on a 2 year deal (or 1 year with a mutual option)

Munetaka Murakami (3B). There’s risk, obviously, but he’s a Japanese triple crown winner (the youngest ever). He had shoulder surgery and missed part of last year, but still hit 22 dingers. He strikes out a lot which doesn’t fit the profile of players the M’s want to target, and he might be too expensive (predictions are for 7 years and $140MM). Lots of teams are going to go in on this guy. High risk with potential high reward.

They likely can’t get a trifecta, and they may wind up plugging one of these holes with a trade if they can’t lock all three of these guys in.

Corner OF – Robles definitely had more downs than ups, but perhaps sign a veteran to a 1 year platoon deal – guys like Mike Yastrzemski or Max Kepler? I dunno what do about this, to be honest. I do expect that the M’s will continue to have a rotating DH.


Imagined Offseason Plan (what I think the M’s will actually do)

Sign Ryan O’Hearn 3 years, $52MM (not likely going to get Naylor. O’Hearn was a beast this year earning All Star honors. He’s older and more affordable than Naylor)

Sign Jorge Polanco 2 years, $22MM (why not?)

Sign Rob Refsnyder 1 year, $2.5MM (hold down the fort till Farmelo and/or Montes make it. He had a great year in Boston – doesn’t want to retire yet. With gas in the tank he is likely just looking for a 1 year deal)

Trade Victor Robles (OF) for Zach McKinstry (3B) (McKinstry is a bit redundant at 3B for the Tigers with the arrival of Colt Keith. He has 2 more years of arbitration and can hold down the fort till prospects arrive. He is cheap. He is a decent leadoff hitter. He had a monster first half of the season in 2025, but cooled off after the All Star break).

Starting rotation stands pat. Dipoto does some unpredictable shit with relievers and turns a fart into a Michelin tasting menu.

Roster:
1. Zach McKinstry 3B (.259/.333/.422/.771, 21.7% K rate)
2. Cal Raleigh C - (.247/.359/.589/.948, 26.7% K rate)
3. Julio Rodriguez CF - (.267/.324/.474/.798, 21.4 K rate)
4. Ryan O’Hearn 1B – (.281/.366/.437, 14.0% K rate)
5. Harry Ford/Luke Raley DH (----------)
6. Jorge Polanco 2B - (.265/.326/.495/.821, 15.6% K rate)
7. Randy Arozarena LF - (.238/.334/.426/.760, 26.9% K rate)
8. Dom Canzone/Rob Refsnyder RF - (.307/.381/.433/.814, 18% K rate in '24/ .269/.354/.484, 21.9% K rate)
9. JP Crawford SS - (.265/.352/.370/.722, 18.7% K rate)

Bench: Cole Young IF, Luke Raley IF

Starters:
1. Bryan Woo
2. George Kirby
3. Logan Gilbert
4. Luis Castillo
5. Bryce Miller

Pen:
CL: Andres Munoz
HL: Matt Brash, Pete Fairbanks, Gabe Spier, Eduard Bazardo
ML/LL: Carlos Vargas, Danny Coloumbe, Gregory Santos

[Captain 97]

I am kind of rethinking Naylor a bit. He's going to be pricey I think Trading for Diaz might be a better use of funds.

[desbcoach]

I am kind of rethinking Naylor a bit. He's going to be pricey I think Trading for Diaz might be a better use of funds.

I prefer signing FA over trading young talent

[desbcoach]

I am kind of rethinking Naylor a bit. He's going to be pricey I think Trading for Diaz might be a better use of funds.

I prefer signing FA over trading young talent

[Bil522]

I am kind of rethinking Naylor a bit. He's going to be pricey I think Trading for Diaz might be a better use of funds.

Naylor has a much better glove, which we need more of, and his bat is not that much better.

[tehmc]

I am kind of rethinking Naylor a bit. He's going to be pricey I think Trading for Diaz might be a better use of funds.

Diaz and Naylor had pretty close numbers but Naylor had 27 more SB's and the plus side is we've already seen him in Seattle, he's already been in the locker room and we know he can hit in Seattle.

Naylor was 0.8 WAR in Arizona and 2.2 WAR in only 54 games in Seattle

I'd rather go for the 1B we know than the 1B we think we know.

[bpj]

General Musings on the 2026 Offseason:

Pitching: the starting pitching staff seems rock solid. For all of the talk this year about them being over-hyped, I think we had one of the better rotations in baseball, and we are keeping all of the starters from last year. Like many of you, I would not be opposed to dealing Castillo – particularly if he brought a big bat in return. He is expensive and getting older, and there are signs of decline (velocity loss, harder contact, slight drop in dominance). They could plug Hancock into the rotation and/or go out and sign one of the many free agent pitchers to a 1-year deal. Worse case scenario: Castillo stays and eats innings and has flashes of dominance.

Bullpen: We definitely need help here. Brash, Munoz, Speier and Bazardo are stalwarts, but pretty much everyone else is potentially expendable. Seattle never locks in non-elite, non-Muñoz relievers. They churn. That said, if they were willing to spend big – really big – Edwin Diaz opted out of his deal with the Mets. It would take a metric shit ton of money that the M’s will likely never spend on a reliever, but imagine a back ended, late inning bullpen with Brash, Bazardo, Munoz and Diaz and the closer. Damn.

More realistically – names like Jimmy Herget (a low-velo, ultra-funky, side-arm righty whose weird angle/shape produces deception and soft contact way more than strikeouts) or Kenley Jansen (big, late-inning closer who throws mostly cutters that hitters know are coming but still can’t barrel – still dominant despite his age).

Position players: let’s be clear – Seattle is not going to aggressively pursue Kyle Tucker or Bellinger or Bregman. Would these guys help the team? Yep. But the M’s aren’t going big on any top, top tier FA.

With Mitch Garver gone, almost certainly Ford will be the backup catcher and DH. The M’s They also ought to negotiate a deal with Polanco before the week is through.

Holes: 1B, 3B, 2B, a corner bat that is a 125–140 wRC+ anchor.

Ideally: they loved Naylor. Fans loved Naylor. Naylor seemed to love Seattle. He’s too good of a fit not to go out make him THE big splash in the offseason. Failing that, they should have a backup plan like Ryan O’Hearn.

2B – re-sign Polanco. He’s a known entity. He had a great year with the M’s in 2025, and he was clutch in the post season. Get him on a 2 year deal (or 1 year with a mutual option)

Munetaka Murakami (3B). There’s risk, obviously, but he’s a Japanese triple crown winner (the youngest ever). He had shoulder surgery and missed part of last year, but still hit 22 dingers. He strikes out a lot which doesn’t fit the profile of players the M’s want to target, and he might be too expensive (predictions are for 7 years and $140MM). Lots of teams are going to go in on this guy. High risk with potential high reward.

They likely can’t get a trifecta, and they may wind up plugging one of these holes with a trade if they can’t lock all three of these guys in.

Corner OF – Robles definitely had more downs than ups, but perhaps sign a veteran to a 1 year platoon deal – guys like Mike Yastrzemski or Max Kepler? I dunno what do about this, to be honest. I do expect that the M’s will continue to have a rotating DH.


Imagined Offseason Plan (what I think the M’s will actually do)

Sign Ryan O’Hearn 3 years, $52MM (not likely going to get Naylor. O’Hearn was a beast this year earning All Star honors. He’s older and more affordable than Naylor)

Sign Jorge Polanco 2 years, $22MM (why not?)

Sign Rob Refsnyder 1 year, $2.5MM (hold down the fort till Farmelo and/or Montes make it. He had a great year in Boston – doesn’t want to retire yet. With gas in the tank he is likely just looking for a 1 year deal)

Trade Victor Robles (OF) for Zach McKinstry (3B) (McKinstry is a bit redundant at 3B for the Tigers with the arrival of Colt Keith. He has 2 more years of arbitration and can hold down the fort till prospects arrive. He is cheap. He is a decent leadoff hitter. He had a monster first half of the season in 2025, but cooled off after the All Star break).

Starting rotation stands pat. Dipoto does some unpredictable shit with relievers and turns a fart into a Michelin tasting menu.

Roster:
1. Zach McKinstry 3B (.259/.333/.422/.771, 21.7% K rate)
2. Cal Raleigh C - (.247/.359/.589/.948, 26.7% K rate)
3. Julio Rodriguez CF - (.267/.324/.474/.798, 21.4 K rate)
4. Ryan O’Hearn 1B – (.281/.366/.437, 14.0% K rate)
5. Harry Ford/Luke Raley DH (----------)
6. Jorge Polanco 2B - (.265/.326/.495/.821, 15.6% K rate)
7. Randy Arozarena LF - (.238/.334/.426/.760, 26.9% K rate)
8. Dom Canzone/Rob Refsnyder RF - (.307/.381/.433/.814, 18% K rate in '24/ .269/.354/.484, 21.9% K rate)
9. JP Crawford SS - (.265/.352/.370/.722, 18.7% K rate)

Bench: Cole Young IF, Luke Raley IF

Starters:
1. Bryan Woo
2. George Kirby
3. Logan Gilbert
4. Luis Castillo
5. Bryce Miller

Pen:
CL: Andres Munoz
HL: Matt Brash, Pete Fairbanks, Gabe Spier, Eduard Bazardo
ML/LL: Carlos Vargas, Danny Coloumbe, Gregory Santos

Sounds like a good plan big maple. I haven't heard anything about this McKinsey, will have to look him up. Good stuff

[TLO Idaho]

Replace Raley for a bucket of used balls.

[Big_Maple]

I am kind of rethinking Naylor a bit. He's going to be pricey I think Trading for Diaz might be a better use of funds.

I agree. I loved Naylor - don’t get me wrong. But someone else will overpay to get him.

And btw, Naylor has no right stealing bases. How did he get 30? Why didn’t pitchers and catchers figure him out?

[D-train]

The rotation was solid but only 13th ERA and 14th in WAR. Mid pack. Hopefully it bounces back as guys are healthy all season. Who are you trading Castillo for???