Big Maple's Big Plan
Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2026 11:07 pm
I know I put together a plan before, but I think this one is actually achievable. A bunch of small moves and one big one. Interested what you all think:
Mariners 2026-27: a five-move plan to fix the glove, the bullpen and third base (about $189M payroll, my estimate)
Last year's Mariners had the worst defense in baseball, blew 28 saves, and went into the winter with no answer at third base. This plan goes after those three problems in that order: first the glove, then the bullpen, then one big swing, a power bat that locks down third base for years. Four of the five moves cost cash or low-level prospects, not the young core. Payroll lands around $189M against about $168M in 2026 (both my estimates), and the whole thing stays well under the luxury-tax line. For each move below: how we get it done, why the other side says yes, and what the player brings.
1. DEFENSE: Get OF Jake Meyers (Astros)
* How: Houston designated him on 2 Nov. Offer a low-level prospect or cash for a trade during the 7-day window, claim him, or sign him if he clears.
* Why Seattle: left field goes from the weakest glove in the outfield to a strong one. He rated +9 outs above average in center in 2025, costs about $3.6M, and is controlled for two years.
* Why Houston: he is already designated, and the Astros have younger outfielders to play.
* What he brings: elite range at a corner. The bat is weak (.727 OPS), so the glove is the point. He starts in 2027, then slides to a cheap bench glove when a left-field prospect is ready.
2. DEFENSE: Sign SS Edmundo Sosa (free agent)
* How: one year, about $4-5M.
* Why Seattle: he has good defensive marks at second, short and third, so shortstop is covered while Arroyo (SS/2B, elbow surgery) returns around April and Colt Emerson (8 years, $95M extension, wrist surgery) returns around midseason.
* Why he signs: a starting job and a one-year deal that sets him up for the next market.
* What he brings: a steady glove who then becomes the best utility infielder on the bench, so nobody young is blocked.
3. BULLPEN: Sign LHP Steven Okert (free agent)
* How: two years, about $13M.
* Why Seattle: the bullpen has only two lefties and blew 28 saves. Okert posted a 2.13 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in 2026, and his slider held hitters to a .183 average.
* Why he signs: a high-leverage role and a second guaranteed year at 35.
* What he brings: a left-handed setup arm with elite walk control.
4. BULLPEN: Trade for RHP Trevor Megill (Brewers)
* How: about $8M, final year of control in 2027. Offer Troy Taylor, Luis Suisbel (23, switch-hitting 1B/3B, 23 HR in 2025) and pitching depth.
* Why Milwaukee: the Brewers just won the World Series and have Aaron Ashby ready to close. ESPN's Jeff Passan reports they "will at least listen," and they are getting prospects for a closer in his last year.
* Why Seattle: a proven closer-level arm to pair with Munoz, with no multi-year commitment.
* What he brings: a right-handed ninth-inning option, so Munoz and Megill can cover each other.
5. POWER BAT: Sign 3B Teruaki Sato (posted by Hanshin)
* How: five years, $165M ($33M a year), opt-out after year 3, no deferrals, bid in the first week because a 1 Dec lockout would shorten his 45-day window. A release fee of about $25M (guessestimate) goes to Hanshin on top.
* Why he signs: it is the biggest offer on the table, Washington has no state income tax, and the opt-out lets him re-enter the market at 31. Rivals: Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies.
* Why Seattle: he won the 2026 Triple Crown (.306/.383/.609, 39 HR) and gets on base at a .383 clip, and he costs money, not prospects.
* What he brings: the left-handed power bat the lineup lacks, locking down third base for years. Naylor is signed at first through 2030, so Sato stays at third, with DH as a later option. Risks: about 27% strikeouts and questions about his glove.
ROSTER (projected, 2027)
C: Raleigh (back from shoulder surgery by spring), Knizner, Pereda
1B: Naylor (wrist surgery, return date unknown), Donovan as cover
2B: Cole Young
SS: Sosa, then Arroyo (April) and Emerson (midseason)
3B: Sato
LF: Meyers
CF: Julio Rodriguez
RF: Canzone
DH: Montes
Bench: Donovan, Rodden, Rivas, Arroyo
Rotation: Woo, Kirby, Gilbert, Miller, Anderson (Hancock on the IL since 29 Aug)
Bullpen: Munoz, Megill, Okert, Speier, Ferrer
Money. About $189M in salary, roughly $207M for luxury-tax purposes, against a $244M line (2026 figure; 2027 not set). All prices are estimates, and nothing has been sent to any team or player.
WHERE THIS PUTS US (my rough estimates)
Baseline, 2026 MLB ranks (Yahoo, "The Mariners' 2026, by the numbers"): offense 102 wRC+ (10th), rotation 105 ERA- (19th) and 98 FIP- (13th), bullpen 115 ERA- (27th), defense -57 outs above average (30th).
* Defense: 30th to roughly 12th-18th. This is the biggest gain. Sosa replaces a minus-defense shortstop year, Meyers upgrades left, and Cole Young is already a Gold Glove second baseman. Getting from -57 to league average is worth roughly 4 wins by my rough conversion. The unknowns are Sato's glove at third and Canzone in right.
* Bullpen: 27th to roughly 12th-18th. Okert and Megill join Munoz at the back, but depth behind them is still thin.
* Rotation: 19th by ERA to roughly 10th-15th. It is the same five arms (Woo, Kirby, Gilbert, Miller, Anderson), but better defense should pull the ERA toward the 13th-ranked FIP.
* Offense: about where it was, roughly 8th-14th. Sato adds power and on-base skills, but Meyers and Sosa are glove-first, and Raleigh and Naylor are coming back from surgery. If Julio can find his swing (by pulling his head out of his ass), and Raleigh and Naylor get back to peak form, this becomes a formidable offense.
Bottom line: this is a run-prevention fix. The defense and bullpen jump from the bottom third to roughly the middle, the rotation improves behind them, and the offense depends on Sato. That points to a clear step up in the standings, not a finished roster.
Mariners 2026-27: a five-move plan to fix the glove, the bullpen and third base (about $189M payroll, my estimate)
Last year's Mariners had the worst defense in baseball, blew 28 saves, and went into the winter with no answer at third base. This plan goes after those three problems in that order: first the glove, then the bullpen, then one big swing, a power bat that locks down third base for years. Four of the five moves cost cash or low-level prospects, not the young core. Payroll lands around $189M against about $168M in 2026 (both my estimates), and the whole thing stays well under the luxury-tax line. For each move below: how we get it done, why the other side says yes, and what the player brings.
1. DEFENSE: Get OF Jake Meyers (Astros)
* How: Houston designated him on 2 Nov. Offer a low-level prospect or cash for a trade during the 7-day window, claim him, or sign him if he clears.
* Why Seattle: left field goes from the weakest glove in the outfield to a strong one. He rated +9 outs above average in center in 2025, costs about $3.6M, and is controlled for two years.
* Why Houston: he is already designated, and the Astros have younger outfielders to play.
* What he brings: elite range at a corner. The bat is weak (.727 OPS), so the glove is the point. He starts in 2027, then slides to a cheap bench glove when a left-field prospect is ready.
2. DEFENSE: Sign SS Edmundo Sosa (free agent)
* How: one year, about $4-5M.
* Why Seattle: he has good defensive marks at second, short and third, so shortstop is covered while Arroyo (SS/2B, elbow surgery) returns around April and Colt Emerson (8 years, $95M extension, wrist surgery) returns around midseason.
* Why he signs: a starting job and a one-year deal that sets him up for the next market.
* What he brings: a steady glove who then becomes the best utility infielder on the bench, so nobody young is blocked.
3. BULLPEN: Sign LHP Steven Okert (free agent)
* How: two years, about $13M.
* Why Seattle: the bullpen has only two lefties and blew 28 saves. Okert posted a 2.13 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in 2026, and his slider held hitters to a .183 average.
* Why he signs: a high-leverage role and a second guaranteed year at 35.
* What he brings: a left-handed setup arm with elite walk control.
4. BULLPEN: Trade for RHP Trevor Megill (Brewers)
* How: about $8M, final year of control in 2027. Offer Troy Taylor, Luis Suisbel (23, switch-hitting 1B/3B, 23 HR in 2025) and pitching depth.
* Why Milwaukee: the Brewers just won the World Series and have Aaron Ashby ready to close. ESPN's Jeff Passan reports they "will at least listen," and they are getting prospects for a closer in his last year.
* Why Seattle: a proven closer-level arm to pair with Munoz, with no multi-year commitment.
* What he brings: a right-handed ninth-inning option, so Munoz and Megill can cover each other.
5. POWER BAT: Sign 3B Teruaki Sato (posted by Hanshin)
* How: five years, $165M ($33M a year), opt-out after year 3, no deferrals, bid in the first week because a 1 Dec lockout would shorten his 45-day window. A release fee of about $25M (guessestimate) goes to Hanshin on top.
* Why he signs: it is the biggest offer on the table, Washington has no state income tax, and the opt-out lets him re-enter the market at 31. Rivals: Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies.
* Why Seattle: he won the 2026 Triple Crown (.306/.383/.609, 39 HR) and gets on base at a .383 clip, and he costs money, not prospects.
* What he brings: the left-handed power bat the lineup lacks, locking down third base for years. Naylor is signed at first through 2030, so Sato stays at third, with DH as a later option. Risks: about 27% strikeouts and questions about his glove.
ROSTER (projected, 2027)
C: Raleigh (back from shoulder surgery by spring), Knizner, Pereda
1B: Naylor (wrist surgery, return date unknown), Donovan as cover
2B: Cole Young
SS: Sosa, then Arroyo (April) and Emerson (midseason)
3B: Sato
LF: Meyers
CF: Julio Rodriguez
RF: Canzone
DH: Montes
Bench: Donovan, Rodden, Rivas, Arroyo
Rotation: Woo, Kirby, Gilbert, Miller, Anderson (Hancock on the IL since 29 Aug)
Bullpen: Munoz, Megill, Okert, Speier, Ferrer
Money. About $189M in salary, roughly $207M for luxury-tax purposes, against a $244M line (2026 figure; 2027 not set). All prices are estimates, and nothing has been sent to any team or player.
WHERE THIS PUTS US (my rough estimates)
Baseline, 2026 MLB ranks (Yahoo, "The Mariners' 2026, by the numbers"): offense 102 wRC+ (10th), rotation 105 ERA- (19th) and 98 FIP- (13th), bullpen 115 ERA- (27th), defense -57 outs above average (30th).
* Defense: 30th to roughly 12th-18th. This is the biggest gain. Sosa replaces a minus-defense shortstop year, Meyers upgrades left, and Cole Young is already a Gold Glove second baseman. Getting from -57 to league average is worth roughly 4 wins by my rough conversion. The unknowns are Sato's glove at third and Canzone in right.
* Bullpen: 27th to roughly 12th-18th. Okert and Megill join Munoz at the back, but depth behind them is still thin.
* Rotation: 19th by ERA to roughly 10th-15th. It is the same five arms (Woo, Kirby, Gilbert, Miller, Anderson), but better defense should pull the ERA toward the 13th-ranked FIP.
* Offense: about where it was, roughly 8th-14th. Sato adds power and on-base skills, but Meyers and Sosa are glove-first, and Raleigh and Naylor are coming back from surgery. If Julio can find his swing (by pulling his head out of his ass), and Raleigh and Naylor get back to peak form, this becomes a formidable offense.
Bottom line: this is a run-prevention fix. The defense and bullpen jump from the bottom third to roughly the middle, the rotation improves behind them, and the offense depends on Sato. That points to a clear step up in the standings, not a finished roster.
If the Brewers made this trade their GM would literally be murdered in broad daylight.