Mariner Talk Chat Forum

M's and Evan White just agreed to a long-term deal.
I like it.

By Steve Adams | November 22, 2019 at 9:38am CDT

The Mariners and first base prospect Evan White are in agreement on a six-year, $24MM contract that contains three club options, Jim Callis of MLB.com reports (via Twitter). The contract, which can max out at $55.5MM if the options are exercised (via Robert Murray), locks up a key piece of the Mariners’ future before he even sets foot in the Majors. White is represented by True Gravity Baseball.

White, the No. 17 overall pick in the 2017 draft, spent the 2019 campaign with Double-A Arkansas, where he hit .293/.350/.488 with 18 home runs in 400 plate appearances. Those numbers were particularly impressive in a pitcher-friendly setting, evidenced by White’s robust 132 wRC+ (indicating that he was 32 percent better at the plate than the average hitter in the Texas League). He’s also regarded as a superlative defensive first baseman, with scouting reports at FanGraphs and MLB.com pegging him as a 70-grade defender. White currently ranks in the game’s top 100 overall prospects at MLB.com (No. 58), Baseball America (No. 73) and FanGraphs (No. 77).

The extension in many ways mirrors the long-term deal signed by Scott Kingery just prior to the 2018 season.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/ ... spect.html

Curious move to say the least. The guy hasn't even made it past AA and you are going to give him a 6 year guaranteed deal for 24 Million?

Lets look at some hypotheticals.
1. White never makes it as an everyday player = you just blew 24 Million
2. If White comes up and and is an average run of the mill player and if you hadn't done this he would play 3 years at 500k then maybe make 2M,3M, 4M in arbitration In which case you just blew about 13 Million
3. If white becomes an above average player and you hadn't done this you would pay him 3 years at $500k and he gets 5M 7M 9M in arbitration. In which case you are about even but you have 3 years of favorable options
4. He becomes an phenom and makes super 2. If you hadn't done this you pay him 500k for 2 years and then pay him 5M 9M 13M 17M in arbitration. You make out like a bandit in this but you probably end up with an extremely disgruntled player that you have to renegotiate with anyway.

It seems to me like the risks outweigh the rewards especially for a player who has a Minor League OPS below .850

On top of this you are basically starting his service clock now by giving him this deal. If he is not ready you are going to be paying him 4 Million a year to be toiling away in the minors and you will have less control time when he gets to the bigs.

He hit better than Kyle Lewis in AA
He hit better than Kyle Lewis in AA
He hit better than Kyle Lewis in AA

Repeating that, trying to convince myself he's better than Casey Kotchman

1st Rd pick. I think the M's have had this guy pegged as their future 1B ever since he was drafted. And last season's performance was enough to convince the front office to lock him up until he's 29 years old. A very smart beginning to the roster construction and future salary budget for the next 6 years.

Sexymarinersfan wrote: ↑

Fri Nov 22, 2019 5:24 pm

1st Rd pick. I think the M's have had this guy pegged as their future 1B ever since he was drafted. And last season's performance was enough to convince the front office to lock him up until he's 29 years old. A very smart beginning to the roster construction and future salary budget for the next 6 years.

You already had him under control for the next 6 years anyway though....

1st base men who put up an .838 OPS in AA are a dime a dozen.

Captain 97 wrote: ↑

Fri Nov 22, 2019 6:59 pm

Sexymarinersfan wrote: ↑

Fri Nov 22, 2019 5:24 pm

1st Rd pick. I think the M's have had this guy pegged as their future 1B ever since he was drafted. And last season's performance was enough to convince the front office to lock him up until he's 29 years old. A very smart beginning to the roster construction and future salary budget for the next 6 years.

You already had him under control for the next 6 years anyway though....

1st base men who put up an .838 OPS in AA are a dime a dozen.

And this is the same thing they thought of DJ Peterson. This just doesn't make much sense and hopefully they're not going to start doing this with everyone they like at the AA level.

Typical M's FO fuckup.

Keon Broxton was a superlative Center field defender...but we did not give him $24mill

Bil522 wrote: ↑

Fri Nov 22, 2019 10:29 pm

Keon Broxton was a superlative Center field defender...but we did not give him $24mill

The downside is it's not all that hard to find a bat for 1B, and they're guaranteeing a position to a glove. At 1B.

Let's just hope he's not the Casey Kotchman he looks like.

DavidGee24 wrote: ↑

Fri Nov 22, 2019 8:46 pm

Captain 97 wrote: ↑

Fri Nov 22, 2019 6:59 pm

Sexymarinersfan wrote: ↑

Fri Nov 22, 2019 5:24 pm

1st Rd pick. I think the M's have had this guy pegged as their future 1B ever since he was drafted. And last season's performance was enough to convince the front office to lock him up until he's 29 years old. A very smart beginning to the roster construction and future salary budget for the next 6 years.

You already had him under control for the next 6 years anyway though....

1st base men who put up an .838 OPS in AA are a dime a dozen.

And this is the same thing they thought of DJ Peterson. This just doesn't make much sense and hopefully they're not going to start doing this with everyone they like at the AA level.

It's a gamble for sure. But one that won't burn the M's if Evan doesn't turn out to be the player they think he's going to be. So while I do see y'alls perspectives, what happens he breaks out and becomes Peter Alfonso lite? The deal could be a bargain for 2 extra potential years of his service.

The same could be said of Kikuchi's contract. But good points all around.