STEAMER Projections

[Sexymarinersfan]

Evan White Steamer Projection: 130 games, 526 PAs, .253/.310/.424, 19 home runs, 95 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR

There is quite a bit to unpack in this projection. First and foremost, the slash line seems totally reasonable. I could see every number within 20 points or so is a realistic possibility. The home run power is a bit tougher to peg though.

There are a lot of variables we need to consider there. For example, what type of baseball will they be using? If it is last year’s juiced baseballs, I think we can advise you to bet the over on 19 home runs. If they return to the 2018 ball, you very easily could bet the under.

A lot of this has to do with how you grade White’s power to be. There is a lot of disagreement surrounding White’s in-game power grade. Some are convinced it will be fringe-average, hovering somewhere in the 50-grade range.

Others are convinced the swing change he made in the summer of 2018 has unlocked an extra tier of power and could rise as high as 60-grade. They point to his 19 home runs in under 100 games, most of them at a notorious pitchers park where right-handed power bats go to die.

The home run power will ultimately decide if White is a perennial All-Star or just a solid starter. Very few doubt his hit tool, as evident by a solid slash line for a player who has only appeared in 4 games above AA.

But what might be more interesting in these projections is the lack of value Steamer has placed on White’s glove and base-running, two skills that don’t slump and are major checkmarks in White’s favor.

White is the best defensive first baseman on the planet (some scouts give him a true 80-grade) and his a 60-grade runner with the athleticism to play centerfield on a regular basis. Yet Steamer projects just a 0.4 BsR and a -10.8 Def score.

For comparison, Daniel Vogelbachreceived a -11.2 Def score. So clearly Steamer is flat out wrong in that metric. To be fair, he has no major league sample size and even Matt Olson scored a -3.0. The value of first base defense is still harder to quantify than most other positions and as such, White’s defensive value may never be properly quantified.

As for the base-running score, that mark would slide just behind Kyle Seager and Mitch Haniger in 2019. It’s not like Steamer’s projection is wrong here, but it doesn’t seem like the grade matches the scouting report.

The lack of value attributed to his defense and base-running, along with overall pedestrian numbers by an MLB first baseman’s standards, contribute to White’s low projected 0.5 fWAR. But I would strongly bet the over on this mark for White.

Still, projecting a rookie with less than a handful of games above AA is tough to do. And even if Steamer is close to accurate here, I think Mariners fans should consider it a solid rookie season.

Personally, I think White hits closer to .260/.320/.450, hits 20 HRs, wins a Gold Glove, and shows off the raw tools necessary for him to earn his new contract.

https://sodomojo.com/2020/01/29/steamer ... van-white/

[Sexymarinersfan]

Tom Murphy Steamer Projection: .217/.270/.406, 19 HRs, 116 games played,78 WRC+, 1.6 fWAR

Well, that would be quite a downturn from his 2019 season, right? Last year, Murphy was one of the most pleasant surprises in baseball and by the second half of last season, appeared to have won the starting catcher job over Omar Narvaez.

Murphy’s power and defensive ability, as well as his leadership and willingness to work with the young arms, led Seattle to choose Muprhy over Narvaez going forward. But while Steamer believes Murphy is due for major regression, it isn’t that hard to see why.

In 2019, Murphy hit .274 with a .329 OBP despite striking out 31% of the time. The reason he could for such a high average despite the strikeout issues could be attributed to his whopping .340 BABIP, about 40 points above league average.

But while Steamer doesn’t see him as a major threat with the bat, it is worth noting that they value him as one of the better defensive catchers in the game. Because of this, he earns a respectable 1.6 fWAR projection, making him a solid, everyday option. And because we know his upside potential, he could easily beat this projection.

I don’t think a .240/.310/.420 projection is outside the realm of possibility and with his defense and communication skills, it should be more than enough to keep him in the lineup every day.

Austin Nola Steamer Projections: .242/.310/.368, 10 HRs, 115 games, 84 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR

Another major surprise from the 2019 season came in the form of Austin Nola, a career minor league shortstop who had just converted to catcher the year prior to coming to Seattle. In his debut season, the 29-year-old rookie hit .269/.342/.454 with 10 homers, a 114 wRC+, and a 1.5 fWAR in just 79 games.

He also showed unique versatility in his debut season, spending time at catcher, first, second, third, left, and right field performing well defensively. Nola appeared to force himself into the plans of the Mariners, at least for another season, and if he can repeat that success, he may just force himself into their long-term plans.

Unfortunately, Steamer is not as optimistic as the Mariners may be. Like Murphy, they are projecting a major step down for Nola. The concern around Nola stems from his relatively pedestrian batted ball profile. Nola hit nearly as many groundballs as flyballs in 2019.

But Steamer clearly projects Nola to move around the diamond as he did in 2019 and actually have projected him to play more often than most backup catchers even can. A 0.5 fWAR in 479 PAs would be a disappointing step back for Nola but also would represent a solid backup role for the now 30-year-old player.

With Evan White now set to handle first base on a nearly daily basis, it will be interesting to see how the Mariners deploy Nola and to see just how desperate they are to get his bat in the lineup.

https://sodomojo.com/2020/01/28/steamer ... hers-2020/

[D-train]

Those should post those on the clubhouse walls to instill the proverbial chip on the shoulder for these guys.

[bpj]

Evan White Steamer Projection: 130 games, 526 PAs, .253/.310/.424, 19 home runs, 95 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR

There is quite a bit to unpack in this projection. First and foremost, the slash line seems totally reasonable. I could see every number within 20 points or so is a realistic possibility. The home run power is a bit tougher to peg though.

There are a lot of variables we need to consider there. For example, what type of baseball will they be using? If it is last year’s juiced baseballs, I think we can advise you to bet the over on 19 home runs. If they return to the 2018 ball, you very easily could bet the under.

A lot of this has to do with how you grade White’s power to be. There is a lot of disagreement surrounding White’s in-game power grade. Some are convinced it will be fringe-average, hovering somewhere in the 50-grade range.

Others are convinced the swing change he made in the summer of 2018 has unlocked an extra tier of power and could rise as high as 60-grade. They point to his 19 home runs in under 100 games, most of them at a notorious pitchers park where right-handed power bats go to die.

The home run power will ultimately decide if White is a perennial All-Star or just a solid starter. Very few doubt his hit tool, as evident by a solid slash line for a player who has only appeared in 4 games above AA.

But what might be more interesting in these projections is the lack of value Steamer has placed on White’s glove and base-running, two skills that don’t slump and are major checkmarks in White’s favor.

White is the best defensive first baseman on the planet (some scouts give him a true 80-grade) and his a 60-grade runner with the athleticism to play centerfield on a regular basis. Yet Steamer projects just a 0.4 BsR and a -10.8 Def score.

For comparison, Daniel Vogelbachreceived a -11.2 Def score. So clearly Steamer is flat out wrong in that metric. To be fair, he has no major league sample size and even Matt Olson scored a -3.0. The value of first base defense is still harder to quantify than most other positions and as such, White’s defensive value may never be properly quantified.

As for the base-running score, that mark would slide just behind Kyle Seager and Mitch Haniger in 2019. It’s not like Steamer’s projection is wrong here, but it doesn’t seem like the grade matches the scouting report.

The lack of value attributed to his defense and base-running, along with overall pedestrian numbers by an MLB first baseman’s standards, contribute to White’s low projected 0.5 fWAR. But I would strongly bet the over on this mark for White.

Still, projecting a rookie with less than a handful of games above AA is tough to do. And even if Steamer is close to accurate here, I think Mariners fans should consider it a solid rookie season.

Personally, I think White hits closer to .260/.320/.450, hits 20 HRs, wins a Gold Glove, and shows off the raw tools necessary for him to earn his new contract.

https://sodomojo.com/2020/01/29/steamer ... van-white/

Like reading an article about a young Casey Kotchman.

1B defense is so much less valuable than a 1B bat that its ridiculous.

If the kid doesnt bring some lumber, he's Kotchman with a little speed that won't do much good from a .310 OBP.

Time will tell. He has to have at least an average MLB first baseman's bat or the defense won't mean squat. It has to add surplus value, not be the players foundation.

[D-train]

.310 OBP would be discouraging but not a disaster in a meaningless rookie season. He will need that OPS to be at or above .800 soon to be a part of a legit playoff team.

[Sexymarinersfan]

Agreed bpj. White however, did change his swing plane, like a bunch of current Mariners have done since coming over to the organization and took off. Ala Tom Murphy, Austin NOLA, etc. He's got to do it in the Show though.

I'm stoked about Evan White. Projections are exactly what they are, just projections.

[Hanjag]

Agreed bpj. White however, did change his swing plane, like a bunch of current Mariners have done since coming over to the organization and took off. Ala Tom Murphy, Austin NOLA, etc. He's got to do it in the Show though.

I'm stoked about Evan White. Projections are exactly what they are, just projections.

I am a bit up on him because of the high launch speed and bad home park stuff.

[Bil522]

He hits any kind of solid .275/.330/.440 with that glove he will be ROY.....barring a phenom season from someone.

[Mesully11]

Staying healthy is the first goal I hope for Him. Then I hope/expect him to meet or beat the steamer projections.
I expect him to be every bit as good defensively as any first baseman in the game!
That would be a very good beginning for His career in my opinion.

[Sexymarinersfan]

Shed Long Steamer Projection: 131 Games, 550 PAs, .247/.311/.404, 16 HRs, 10 SB, 92 wRC+, 1.4 fWAR

Very few Mariners have become fan favorites as quickly as Shed Long Jr. did. It happened almost immediately in Spring Training and after an adjustment period at the big league level and working his way through an injury, Long may just cement himself as the next second baseman on a winning Mariners team with a solid 2020. And if you take Steamers projections at face value… it appears they’ll need to see more of him in 2021 before deciding that.

The Steamer projections are bad. For the first full season in MLB, those are respectable numbers, especially for a 24-year-old. But it may be a bit of a disappointment for fans who are expecting a repeat of his .263/.333/.454 season in his first 168 career plate appearances.

The home run projection seems a tad low, especially if MLB continues to use the juiced ball. Long has well above-average raw power and we are starting to see it show up in games. Surprisingly, Steamer thinks more highly of Long’s defense than most scouts. It is projecting a -0.2 Def score, just below replacement level.

The defense will be the big issue going into Long’s evaluation as an everyday second baseman, but there is enough to like in his bat, raw power, versatility, and athleticism to give him that chance. While the projected stat line wouldn’t blow anybody away, it would be a solid rookie season for Long.

Dee Gordon Steamer Projections: 75 games, 314 PAs, .273/.306/.359,       3 home runs, 14 steals, 0.4 fWAR

I mean, that feels about right. Gordon has been a bad acquisition and his days in a Mariners uniform are limited. His 2019 season was itself frustrating because every time it looked as though Gordon was back on track, he would get hurt. First, it was getting hit in the wrist by a JA Happ fastball, then a lower leg injury.

Gordon appears untradable right now and Seattle seems unwilling to just DFA him, so he may very well be on the Opening Day roster in 2 months. GM Jerry Dipoto says Gordon will move around the diamond this year and in an effort to recoup some shred of trade value, it may be an okay move.

But after 2 years in Seattle with largely the same results as these projections, it is hard to be more optimistic about this fan favorite.