Alright, lets talk about actual baseball. Which young player are you more worried about regressing next year?

[Juliooooo]

Dylan Moore or Kyle Lewis?

Justus Sheffield or Justin Dunn?

Lewis and Sheffield are the guys that most people had the most hope for, and both probably exceeded expectations. Dunn and Moore are 2 young guys that we probably didn't expect as much out of, but far exceeded expectations. Which of the 2 for each group do you think was more likely a product of a small sample size in the weird season, and which do you think is going to continue their success from last season moving forward.

I'd have to say I'm still a bit worried about Lewis. His BABIP in the first 20 games was an anomoly, and he really struggled the last 20ish. The middle of the season was the most encouraging part of the season for me. I'm still a fan, and hopeful, but for some reason a big regression scares me. I think Moore will be solid. He may not put up the same numbers he did this last season, but I think he's a .250/.350/.425 guy, so maybe a little less power than he showed over the course of a 160 game season.

As for Pitchers, I gotta say I think that Sheffield is the guy. Dunn was good, but he wasn't near as dominant as Sheffield. I think Sheffield figured it out and he's going to be a solid #3 type pitcher for a while.

Anyway, just wanted to talk about actual baseball in the baseball forum for some reason.

[D-train]

Thanks for the refreshing new topic brother! I just wanted to say that first. I will think about it and respond soon. Thanks again.

[D-train]

Unbelievably Dunn had the worst WAR on the team for pitchers that threw 10+ innings. -0.3

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx? ... =&enddate=

[D-train]

Mike Zunino just hit a two run bomb of JA Happ. That is all. That's the post.

[Juliooooo]

Unbelievably Dunn had the worst WAR on the team for pitchers that threw 10+ innings. -0.3

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx? ... =&enddate=

Your guy Kikuchi was 3rd with 1.1 WAR, which would have been what, 2.5 over the course of a season?!?! I think Dunn will have a stint in the minors at some point next season, and I still haven't ruled out him as an eventual bullpen guy.

Next June, who do you think is more likely to be a starter, Dunn or Kikuchi. Assuming they add a starter in the offseason (which is probably not a safe assumption)

Marco
Sheffield
FA (T. Walker?!)
Gilbert (after 6 weeks)
Kikuchi/Dunn????

Who would you feel better about in that 5th spot.

[DavidGee24]

Kikuchi was 0.1, he might not even reach 1.1 over the course of his career.

I've got to go with Dunn on regressing too. The only way he can even be moderately successful is if he nibbles and that's really hard to sustain.

[Juliooooo]

Kikuchi was 0.1, he might not even reach 1.1 over the course of his career.

I've got to go with Dunn on regressing too. The only way he can even be moderately successful is if he nibbles and that's really hard to sustain.

I'm just going of the site that D-Train used. Dunn needs to improve his BB rate. He's young, I think he can. That will help him a lot if he does. Sheffield was worse last season than Dunn was this year with BB. Dunn should be given a chance to start the first 2 months, and if not, go to the minors to work on things. They can always move him to the pen in 2022.

[D-train]

Massive Divergence between fWAR and bWar for those two guys. BR favors ERA and fWAR favors FIP.

Kikuchi: bWAR 0.1 fWAR 1.1

Dunn: bWAR 0.3 fWAR -0.3

[bpj]

I think Moore and Sheffield have earned 2B and SP4. Lewis could drop off even worse and survive just fine in CF, he's an easy Yes on getting another season.

Dunn still seems like he might be a fine 7th inning guy, but didn't earn a spot when we should be contending, imo

[Petert]

Thanks for starting the new thread, Juliooo.

I thought about this, and I have to look at it carefully, as I was ready to mistake 'regressing' with 'not improving', and it's easy for me to mistake the latter for the former.

At the present time, I'd probably say Sheffield.

Kikuchi, I think is a lost cause as a starter (unless someone in the front office eats crow and moves him to the 4 or 5 slot in the rotation, before being assigned to the bullpen) so I can't count him as 'regressing', since he never met (my) expectations as a starter in the first place. (Again), He now should be targeted as an overpriced bullpen option where, maybe, his morse-code flashes of dominance can be better matched to situational matchups, rather than attempting to slog through 100 pitches of entertaining the gods of baseball into a 'thumbs up' or 'thumbs down' decision. Dunn holds his own, I believe, much better than Kikuchi does, and shows poise, intelligence and talent.

Any regression on his part would hurt, but not as much, IMO, if Sheffield lapsed into his 2019 form.