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Kyle Lewis Vs. an All Star Team
Posted: Fri Oct 09, 2020 5:36 pm
by bpj
Kyle Lewis was (allegedly) worth 1.7 WAR in 2020
That is equal to this group of (probably) All Stars
JD Martinez -1.0
Josh Reddick -.6
Victor Robles -.5
Yuri Guriell -.1
Jose Altuve .2
Vlad Guerrero Jr. .3
Pete Alonso .4
Ketel Marte .4
Nick Castellanos .5
Joey Votto .6
Christian Yelich .7
Charlie Blackmon .8
Nothing can do it for a playa than having a bat as a CF.
Re: Kyle Lewis Vs. an All Star Team
Posted: Fri Oct 09, 2020 6:19 pm
by D-train
bpj wrote: ↑Fri Oct 09, 2020 5:36 pm
Kyle Lewis was (allegedly) worth 1.7 WAR in 2020
That is equal to this group of (probably) All Stars
JD Martinez -1.0
Josh Reddick -.6
Victor Robles -.5
Yuri Guriell -.1
Jose Altuve .2
Vlad Guerrero Jr. .3
Pete Alonso .4
Ketel Marte .4
Nick Castellanos .5
Joey Votto .6
Christian Yelich .7
Charlie Blackmon .8
Nothing can do it for a playa than having a bat as a CF.
Or catcher or SS. Interesting CF = 2B = 3B I was thinking CF was higher.
Position Full Season Adjustment
C +12.5
1B -12.5
2B +2.5
SS +7.5
3B +2.5
LF -7.5
CF +2.5
RF -7.5
DH -17.5
Re: Kyle Lewis Vs. an All Star Team
Posted: Fri Oct 09, 2020 6:56 pm
by bpj
It may change based on how many good players there are at those positions recently. For awhile there were some very offensive 2B. Now you get guys like Bellinger in CF.
I'd love to see just historically, how does his performance stack up because comparing Gutierrez to Lewis is probably a skewed WAR because back in Guti's 6 WAR era there were fewer good center fielders. Just something to throw out, haven't researched that.
So, did fewer good comparable CF in his era then equte to a higher WAR than if he played, say, now? I lean Yes, because I never saw Gutierrez as a 6 WAR player in the same way that Nyjer Morgan was never actually worth his 5 that year.
Re: Kyle Lewis Vs. an All Star Team
Posted: Fri Oct 09, 2020 8:18 pm
by D-train
bpj wrote: ↑Fri Oct 09, 2020 6:56 pm
It may change based on how many good players there are at those positions recently. For awhile there were some very offensive 2B. Now you get guys like Bellinger in CF.
I'd love to see just historically, how does his performance stack up because comparing Gutierrez to Lewis is probably a skewed WAR because back in Guti's 6 WAR era there were fewer good center fielders. Just something to throw out, haven't researched that.
So, did fewer good comparable CF in his era then equte to a higher WAR than if he played, say, now? I lean Yes, because I never saw Gutierrez as a 6 WAR player in the same way that Nyjer Morgan was never actually worth his 5 that year.
Almost positive those adjustments are static and unrelated to the quality of players at each position. It is just measuring how difficult or easy the position is to play relative to other positions.
Re: Kyle Lewis Vs. an All Star Team
Posted: Fri Oct 09, 2020 8:20 pm
by D-train
Re: Kyle Lewis Vs. an All Star Team
Posted: Fri Oct 09, 2020 8:59 pm
by bpj
That accounts for the defensive side. But, what I'm talking about is how their offense is translated as a CF to account for offensive WAR.
There has to be something on the offensive side also as far as WAR goes to account for positional differences and how offensive WAR is tabulated for each.
What you're referencing seems to account for the "Def" column, what about the "Off" column?
Re: Kyle Lewis Vs. an All Star Team
Posted: Fri Oct 09, 2020 9:10 pm
by D-train
bpj wrote: ↑Fri Oct 09, 2020 8:59 pm
That accounts for the defensive side. But, what I'm talking about is how their offense is translated as a CF to account for offensive WAR.
There has to be something on the offensive side also as far as WAR goes to account for positional differences and how offensive WAR is tabulated for each.
What you're referencing seems to account for the "Def" column, what about the "Off" column?
I really don't think it is. Lets say you have a defensively average SS and an average 1B. I they both have identical offensives stats. 650 PAs 180 hits 120 singles 35 doubles 5 triples and 20 HRs and 80 walks. So pretty good hitters with OPS in the .850 range. Both would have identical oWAR but the SS would have a much higher dWAR because of the positional adjustment. So the 1B would have like 4 WAR and the SS would have like 6 WAR.
Re: Kyle Lewis Vs. an All Star Team
Posted: Fri Oct 09, 2020 9:14 pm
by bpj
Then how do they account for the baserunning?
Offensive/Defensive/Baserunning components to WAR no?
The baserunning and offense aren't tempered for expected outcomes from the position before being weighted? Seems like they have to be to me
Re: Kyle Lewis Vs. an All Star Team
Posted: Fri Oct 09, 2020 9:16 pm
by D-train
Yep. I am correct. Check out Conforto vs. Lowe. They both have nearly identical wOBA and OPS and PAs and thus nearly identical oWAR. But Conforto is a RF and Lowe is a 2B so Lowe has higher dWAR and thus higher WAR.
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx? ... &sort=20,d
Re: Kyle Lewis Vs. an All Star Team
Posted: Fri Oct 09, 2020 9:21 pm
by D-train
Just looked and both are about average defensively. WARs are 2.3 vs. 2.0 so the Pos. adj. is worth 0.3 in that case or about 0.8 over a normal full season.