D-trains WAR and win projections

[D-train]

I will just use Divish's roster which seems reasonable:

Marco Gonzales, LHP 4.5
Yusei Kikuchi, LHP 2.5
Chris Flexen, RHP 0.7
Justus Sheffield, LHP 3.7
Justin Dunn, RHP 0.5
Nick Margevicius, LHP 1.2
Logan Gilbert RHP 2.3
Total: 15.4

Rafael Montero, RHP (closer) 0.7
Keynan Middleton, RHP 0.3
Kendall Graveman, RHP 1.2
Brandon Brennan, RHP .08
Casey Sadler, RHP -0.3
Erik Swanson, RHP 0.5
Yohan Ramirez, RHP 0.7
Anthony Misiewicz, LHP 1.1
5.0

Outfielders (4)

Kyle Lewis, CF 2.7
Mitch Haniger, RF 3.1
Jake Fraley, LF 0.3
Sam Haggerty, Utility 0.5
JK 1.7
8.3

Infielders (6)

Kyle Seager, 3B 3.2
J.P. Crawford, SS 2.3
Dylan Moore, 2B 2.7
Evan White, 1B 1.3
Ty France, IF 3.5
Shed Long Jr., IF -0.1
12.9

Catchers (2)

Tom Murphy 1.8
Luis Torrens 1.2
3.0

Replacement team Baseline: 47.6
Team WAR: 44.6
Team Wins: 92.2

Wow! I thought I would be at like 77 wins. Where am I being too optimistic? Maybe France? Other than him I don't think any of my individual WARs are crazy. Let me know if so.

[DavidGee24]

Remember, "replacement player" doesn't mean "average player", it's more like "corpse with some remaining motor ability". I'm not sure how that projection would work, but you're probably much closer to 77 wins than 92.

[D-train]

Here are my predictions vs. the most relevant comparison. For some it is their full 2019 season. For those that were rookies, it is their 2020 season. For Haniger it is 2018, his last full season.

Marco Gonzales, LHP 4.5 (2.0 WAR in 60 games)
Yusei Kikuchi, LHP 2.5 (1.1 WAR in 60 games)
Chris Flexen, RHP 0.7 (NA)
Justus Sheffield, LHP 3.7 (1.6 WAR in 60 games)
Justin Dunn, RHP 0.5 (-0.3 WAR in 60 games)
Nick Margevicius, LHP 1.2 (.6 WAR in 7 starts)
Logan Gilbert RHP 2.3 (NA)
Total: 15.4

Rafael Montero, RHP (closer) 0.7 (0.2 WAR in 60 games)
Keynan Middleton, RHP 0.3 (0.0 WAR in 12 games)
Kendall Graveman, RHP 1.2 (0.3 WAR in 11 games)
Brandon Brennan, RHP .08 (0.2 WAR in 2019)
Casey Sadler, RHP -0.3 (0.0 WAR in every season)
Erik Swanson, RHP 0.5 (-0.3 WAR in both 2019 and 2020)
Yohan Ramirez, RHP 0.7 (-0.2 WAR)
Anthony Misiewicz, LHP 1.1 (0.5 WAR in 21 games in 2020)
5.0

Outfielders (4)

Kyle Lewis, CF 2.7 (1.6 WAR in only 58 games)
Mitch Haniger, RF 3.1 (4.5 WAR in 2018)
Jake Fraley, LF 0.3 (He has only put up negative WAR to date)
Sam Haggerty, Utility 0.5 (0.4 WAR in only 13 games)
JK 1.7 NA
8.3

Infielders (6)

Kyle Seager, 3B 3.2 (2.9 WAR in only 106 games)
J.P. Crawford, SS 2.3 (1.3 WAR in only 93 games)
Dylan Moore, 2B 2.7 (1.4 WAR in only 38 games)
Evan White, 1B 1.3 (-0.2 WAR)
Ty France, IF 3.5 (0.9 WAR in only 43 games)
Shed Long Jr., IF -0.1 (0.7 WAR in only 42 games in 2019)
12.9

Catchers (2)

Tom Murphy 1.8 (3.2 WAR in only 78 games)
Luis Torrens 1.2 (-0.2 WAR in 25 games)
3.0

[D-train]

Remember, "replacement player" doesn't mean "average player", it's more like "corpse with some remaining motor ability". I'm not sure how that projection would work, but you're probably much closer to 77 wins than 92.

A team of replacement players is assumed to win the 47.6 games so by definition you just add the collective team WAR (Wins above replacement) to the 47.6 like I did to get wins.

47.6+44.6 = 92.2

A “WAR win” can be defined as a team’s total WAR + 47.628. We use WAR wins, as opposed to just pure WAR, because a team with 0 WAR does not win zero games. A replacement-level team, rather, is projected to post a .294 winning percentage. Over the course of a 162-game season, this team would win 47.628 games. Thus, for every single WAR above this, a team should be worth WAR + 47.628.

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/ ... order-wins

[D-train]

Here are my predictions vs. the most relevant comparison. For some it is their full 2019 season. For those that were rookies, it is their 2020 season. For Haniger it is 2018, his last full season.

Marco Gonzales, LHP 4.5 (2.0 WAR in 60 games)
Yusei Kikuchi, LHP 2.5 (1.1 WAR in 60 games)
Chris Flexen, RHP 0.7 (NA)
Justus Sheffield, LHP 3.7 (1.6 WAR in 60 games)
Justin Dunn, RHP 0.5 (-0.3 WAR in 60 games)
Nick Margevicius, LHP 1.2 (.6 WAR in 7 starts)
Logan Gilbert RHP 2.3 (NA)
Total: 15.4

Rafael Montero, RHP (closer) 0.7 (0.2 WAR in 60 games)
Keynan Middleton, RHP 0.3 (0.0 WAR in 12 games)
Kendall Graveman, RHP 1.2 (0.3 WAR in 11 games)
Brandon Brennan, RHP .08 (0.2 WAR in 2019)
Casey Sadler, RHP -0.3 (0.0 WAR in every season)
Erik Swanson, RHP 0.5 (-0.3 WAR in both 2019 and 2020)
Yohan Ramirez, RHP 0.7 (-0.2 WAR)
Anthony Misiewicz, LHP 1.1 (0.5 WAR in 21 games in 2020)
5.0

Outfielders (4)

Kyle Lewis, CF 2.7 (1.6 WAR in only 58 games)
Mitch Haniger, RF 3.1 (4.5 WAR in 2018)
Jake Fraley, LF 0.3 (He has only put up negative WAR to date)
Sam Haggerty, Utility 0.5 (0.4 WAR in only 13 games)
JK 1.7 NA
8.3

Infielders (6)

Kyle Seager, 3B 3.2 (2.9 WAR in only 106 games)
J.P. Crawford, SS 2.3 (1.3 WAR in only 93 games)
Dylan Moore, 2B 2.7 (1.4 WAR in only 38 games)
Evan White, 1B 1.3 (-0.2 WAR)
Ty France, IF 3.5 (0.9 WAR in only 43 games)
Shed Long Jr., IF -0.1 (0.7 WAR in only 42 games in 2019)
12.9

Catchers (2)

Tom Murphy 1.8 (3.2 WAR in only 78 games)
Luis Torrens 1.2 (-0.2 WAR in 25 games)
3.0

I would say the projections in red might be optimistic but still not seeing anywhere that I went crazy.

[DavidGee24]

A team of replacement players is assumed to win the 47.6 games so by definition you just add the collective team WAR (Wins above replacement) to the 47.6 like I did to get wins.

47.6+44.6 = 92.2

A “WAR win” can be defined as a team’s total WAR + 47.628. We use WAR wins, as opposed to just pure WAR, because a team with 0 WAR does not win zero games. A replacement-level team, rather, is projected to post a .294 winning percentage. Over the course of a 162-game season, this team would win 47.628 games. Thus, for every single WAR above this, a team should be worth WAR + 47.628.

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/ ... order-wins

Ah, I see. I think your projections are actually pretty reasonable. 92 games sounds miraculous but you can actually see that happening and that very well could win the division this year.

[D-train]

I think the total of 15.4 for the rotation is probably too high. If it was a 5-man rotation that would be five for your number 1. 4 for your number 2. 3 for your number 3. 2 for your number 4 and 1 for your number 5 which is pretty damn good and probably unrealistic. So I think in hindsight I would knock that down a couple.

[ddraig]

I think a 92 - 70 record for this team is wildly optimistic! Assuming we play 162 games.

[BaseHitDerby]

I'm going with 70 - 92 wins.

[BaseHitDerby]

I think a 92 - 70 record for this team is wildly optimistic! Assuming we play 162 games.

Shoot for the moon!