Kyle Seagers Production

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bpj
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Kyle Seagers Production

Post by bpj » Sun Sep 05, 2021 6:35 am

Posted this in the game thread, but it's probably worth talking about a little more.

The proof is in the pudding as far as his production goes. Not exactly how we'd like it, but he's putting runs on the board.

Seager is responsible for a pretty significant portion of our runs scored. He does that by making sure he's not stuck at first base when he does get on. Before today's game Seager had 106 hits, 53 singles and 53 extra base hits. He's helped make up for a lack of hits by also walking 52 times.

Jeff at SSI used to tout three offensive stats, which in my opinion, along with OPS, tell the story of a players production.

Those were ISO, Total Bases, and the third was R/9 or R27, basically how many runs was that player responsible for per 27 outs.
  • When you look at Total Bases, Seager ranks 36th in MLB (that's 2 spots behind M. Machado and 1 spot ahead of C. Correa)
  • When you look at ISO, Seager ranks 35th in MLB (JD Martinez, G. Stanton, J. Donaldson, M. Haniger all just behind him)
  • R27 I can no longer find anywhere, but he would likely be among the best there as well.
  • His OPS is a conundrum, overall he's ranked 106th (before today), but in Away games his OPS is .843, which is ranked 40th in MLB.
If you look at his average, Seager has been terrible. If you look at the underlying production, and how he's gotten it done, he's been an impressive player, and a good part of the reason we've overperformed, imo.

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ddraig
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Re: Kyle Seagers Production

Post by ddraig » Sun Sep 05, 2021 6:59 am

One stat Seager can't run away from is that he is three SO's away from tying his all time worst season for strikeouts. He will likely surpass that total of 138 posted in 2018.

I hate the fact that he shows up every year after the All Star break. But I would re-sign him for next season despite his average and high SO's. He provides good to great defense at 3B throughout the year. I'd like a more consistent hitter with a higher average, but you can't knock what he's doing on the field right now. And his LH bat helps to balance the overly RH hitting team. Retaining Seager at 3B fills one potential hole that might otherwise be difficult to fill.

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bpj
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Re: Kyle Seagers Production

Post by bpj » Sun Sep 05, 2021 7:23 am

ddraig wrote:
Sun Sep 05, 2021 6:59 am
One stat Seager can't run away from is that he is three SO's away from tying his all time worst season for strikeouts. He will likely surpass that total of 138 posted in 2018.

I hate the fact that he shows up every year after the All Star break. But I would re-sign him for next season despite his average and high SO's. He provides good to great defense at 3B throughout the year. I'd like a more consistent hitter with a higher average, but you can't knock what he's doing on the field right now. And his LH bat helps to balance the overly RH hitting team. Retaining Seager at 3B fills one potential hole that might otherwise be difficult to fill.
Fair points ddraig.

On the flip side, yes he has K'd more, but as a result he has only grounded into 6 double plays which is better than 190 other players.

Ranked 17th worst in K's, ranked 191st in grounding into double plays.

Juan Soto has K'd 79 times and grounded into 22 double plays = responsible for 123 outs
C. Correa 99/14 = 127
Vlad 94/17 = 128
P. Goldschmidt 115/10=135
M. Semien 126/8 = 142
Kyle Seager 135/6 = 147
Y. Alvarez 120/15 = 150
B. Lowe 149/2 = 153
Aaron Judge 131/11 = 153
G. Stanton 125/18 = 161
JD Martinez 130/16 = 162
J. Abreu 123/22 = 167
Ohtani 163/7 = 177
J. Gallo 179/6 = 191

Just saying, even by number of outs created, Seager stacks up well against a lot of productive players.

OPS is OPS is OPS.

It doesn't matter if they're striking out or dancing the macarena, an .850 OPS hitter is putting runs on the board (which only applies to Seager on the road for whatever reason :lol: )

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bpj
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Re: Kyle Seagers Production

Post by bpj » Sun Sep 05, 2021 7:53 am

If you normalize the numbers to determine, "how many outs are they responsible for per 600 plate appearances it would probably yield some interesting info.

Ohtani for example:

163 K's
7 GIDP's
528 PA's

=

163+14 = 177

(177/528)*600 = 201 outs per 600 plate appearances

Others-
Seager: (147/559)*600 = 157 outs per 600 PA
Correa: (127/533)*600 = 143 outs per 600 PA
Semien: (142/591)*600 = 144 outs per 600 PA
Goldschmidt: (135/565)*600 = 143 outs per 600 PA
Guerrero: (128/570)*600 = 135 outs per 600 PA
N. Cruz: (126/484)*600 = 156 outs per 600 PA
JT Realmuto: (103/434)*600 = 142 outs per 600 PA
T. France: (106/531)*600 = 120 outs per 600 PA :shock:
J. Donaldson: (125/426)*600 = 176 outs per 600 PA
N. Arenado: (118/548)*600 = 129 outs per 600 PA
J. Kelenic: (82/267)*600 = 184 outs per 600 PA

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D-train
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Re: Kyle Seagers Production

Post by D-train » Sun Sep 05, 2021 12:49 pm

Sorry but this isn't the 1980s so the obsession with Kyle's Ks is pretty silly. 82 of his 135 Ks have come with the bases empty so completely irrelevant.

53 have come with men on base which have occurred in 250 PAs. That's a very acceptable 21% K rate for a power hitter. Even if he dropped that to an excellent 15% K rate that is only 15 less Ks in almost 140 games. Who cares. And as bpj mentioned a K is FAR better than a DP with runners on.
dt

Lincoln2207
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Re: Kyle Seagers Production

Post by Lincoln2207 » Sun Sep 05, 2021 1:54 pm

Ok, you guys have convinced me, I guess I was wrong about Seager. It's just his lack of first half production that really gets to me, but I can see from what you've written here that there are other more important things to consider. Pretty interesting perspective.

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seattlefan-daBronx
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Re: Kyle Seagers Production

Post by seattlefan-daBronx » Sun Sep 05, 2021 3:36 pm

Seager's 30 plus home runs alone imho will get him extended for another year at 15 million dollars!

My question is....will he try to get out of it?
He was pretty vocal about the team not going for it at the trade deadline this year.
Also, I don't you if you guys saw it last night...I was watching the "Arizona broadcast"...
they showed Kyle high-fiving everyone in the dugout after his second home run of the night.
SS patted him on the shoulder and it was clear as day that Kyle "grimmaced" gave a "whatever" look.
Body language sometimes says alot. Money of course at the end of the day says alot also.
Pronouns: Kiss/My/Ass

AT Funchal-Madeira
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Re: Kyle Seagers Production

Post by AT Funchal-Madeira » Sun Sep 05, 2021 3:56 pm

Lincoln2207 wrote:
Sun Sep 05, 2021 1:54 pm
Ok, you guys have convinced me, I guess I was wrong about Seager. It's just his lack of first half production that really gets to me, but I can see from what you've written here that there are other more important things to consider. Pretty interesting perspective.
I know people care more about power than strikeouts.... and I'm glad Kyle has hit his 33 homeruns, but I don't like his average or his strikeouts, nor really his slowness on the basepaths... The Mariners currently rank as the 6th highest in the majors in strikeouts. The Houston Astros have the least strikeouts of any team in baseball. I believe the fact they are so hard to strike out contributes to them having the best offense in baseball.

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Sibelius Hindemith
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Re: Kyle Seagers Production

Post by Sibelius Hindemith » Sun Sep 05, 2021 3:56 pm

bpj wrote:
Sun Sep 05, 2021 7:53 am
If you normalize the numbers to determine, "how many outs are they responsible for per 600 plate appearances it would probably yield some interesting info.

Ohtani for example:

163 K's
7 GIDP's
528 PA's

=

163+14 = 177

(177/528)*600 = 201 outs per 600 plate appearances

Others-
Seager: (147/559)*600 = 157 outs per 600 PA
Correa: (127/533)*600 = 143 outs per 600 PA
Semien: (142/591)*600 = 144 outs per 600 PA
Goldschmidt: (135/565)*600 = 143 outs per 600 PA
Guerrero: (128/570)*600 = 135 outs per 600 PA
N. Cruz: (126/484)*600 = 156 outs per 600 PA
JT Realmuto: (103/434)*600 = 142 outs per 600 PA
T. France: (106/531)*600 = 120 outs per 600 PA :shock:
J. Donaldson: (125/426)*600 = 176 outs per 600 PA
N. Arenado: (118/548)*600 = 129 outs per 600 PA
J. Kelenic: (82/267)*600 = 184 outs per 600 PA
It would be interesting to see the correlation of strikeouts to BABiP, if there is any. I might look it up for those players you listed. The ones with more hard-hit balls per 600 (like Ohtani) probably have higher SO% and BABiP.

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D-train
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Re: Kyle Seagers Production

Post by D-train » Sun Sep 05, 2021 4:13 pm

seattlefan-daBronx wrote:
Sun Sep 05, 2021 3:36 pm
Seager's 30 plus home runs alone imho will get him extended for another year at 15 million dollars!

My question is....will he try to get out of it?
He was pretty vocal about the team not going for it at the trade deadline this year.
Also, I don't you if you guys saw it last night...I was watching the "Arizona broadcast"...
they showed Kyle high-fiving everyone in the dugout after his second home run of the night.
SS patted him on the shoulder and it was clear as day that Kyle "grimmaced" gave a "whatever" look.
Body language sometimes says alot. Money of course at the end of the day says alot also.
He can't get out of it.
dt

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