Suzuki to be posted

[Case_Of_The_Runs]

I know this has been said before, but mlb.com just posted the following story:

https://www.mlb.com/news/seiya-suzuki-posted

I like the guy, but I don't think he would be an automatic fit for the M's. It's like the transition from middle school to high school - Japanese players take at least a season to really figure out American baseball. I don't think he would slot in an bring the same production he had last season. Besides, after 30 games, pitchers figure out how to pitch to him and his OBP goes way down (thinking of Dae-Ho here). We need a guy who can rake right out of the gates, AND who can provide leadership to a mostly young group of kids in the outfield.

[D-train]

Don't let all the Kikuchi excuses sway your thinking....that is the exception not the rule. Dude had a 1.075 OPS. Even if it were to fall by 300 points he would still be a solid contributor.

[desbcoach]

I know this has been said before, but mlb.com just posted the following story:

https://www.mlb.com/news/seiya-suzuki-posted

I like the guy, but I don't think he would be an automatic fit for the M's. It's like the transition from middle school to high school - Japanese players take at least a season to really figure out American baseball. I don't think he would slot in an bring the same production he had last season. Besides, after 30 games, pitchers figure out how to pitch to him and his OBP goes way down (thinking of Dae-Ho here). We need a guy who can rake right out of the gates, AND who can provide leadership to a mostly young group of kids in the outfield.

How long did Ichiro take?

[Case_Of_The_Runs]

Tru dat. I thought of that as I was posting this response. But Ichiro would a statistical blip. Seriously. Plot a graph of success in Japan (or Korea) on one axis and immediate success in the majors and do a regression analysis. Ichiro is somewhere stratospherically on another graph somewhere. Up there with Ohtani. Most struggle - at least initially. They haven't come through the American farm system

I think this is why so few Japanese players make the leap - whether they are pitchers or position players. It's different baseball. I think many could and do make the transition eventually, but are we willing to invest in a guy who may take a season or two to really start hitting while we are simultaneously waiting for Kelenic to figure it out, Lewis to get back in his groove and JRod to get the mid-season call up?

Ichiro was a freak.

[D-train]

I know this has been said before, but mlb.com just posted the following story:

https://www.mlb.com/news/seiya-suzuki-posted

I like the guy, but I don't think he would be an automatic fit for the M's. It's like the transition from middle school to high school - Japanese players take at least a season to really figure out American baseball. I don't think he would slot in an bring the same production he had last season. Besides, after 30 games, pitchers figure out how to pitch to him and his OBP goes way down (thinking of Dae-Ho here). We need a guy who can rake right out of the gates, AND who can provide leadership to a mostly young group of kids in the outfield.

How long did Ichiro take?

He went from .387 to .350. Aoki didn't miss a beat. About the same in Japan his last and here his first.

[Case_Of_The_Runs]

Aoki - maybe a little drop? .320 foreign v. .285 majors?

https://www.baseball-reference.com/regi ... ki--001nor

I dunno - this may be based on hunches rather than numbers. Happy to be proven wrong!

[D-train]

Tru dat. I thought of that as I was posting this response. But Ichiro would a statistical blip. Seriously. Plot a graph of success in Japan (or Korea) on one axis and immediate success in the majors and do a regression analysis. Ichiro is somewhere stratospherically on another graph somewhere. Up there with Ohtani. Most struggle - at least initially. They haven't come through the American farm system

I think this is why so few Japanese players make the leap - whether they are pitchers or position players. It's different baseball. I think many could and do make the transition eventually, but are we willing to invest in a guy who may take a season or two to really start hitting while we are simultaneously waiting for Kelenic to figure it out, Lewis to get back in his groove and JRod to get the mid-season call up?

Ichiro was a freak.

Matsui .334 to .287
Ichiro .387 to .350
Aoki .292 to .288
Ohtani .332 to .285
Johjima .309 to .291

[Case_Of_The_Runs]

Dang! You're good!

Not sure if it is a statistical drop or not, but there does seem to be one.

Noticeably, none of them got better moving to the majors. At least not initially.

[D-train]

The average decline in BA is 9% so Suzuki's .314 BA would go down to .286. I would take that. Call me crazy.

[D-train]

Dang! You're good!

Not sure if it is a statistical drop or not, but there does seem to be one.

Noticeably, none of them got better moving to the majors. At least not initially.

Of course there is a drop but when you are starting with a .314 BA and 1.075 OPS he will almost assuredly be a good mlb hitter especially with the epic 1:1 K/BB ratio.