SafeCo splits home/away from 2000-2021: A Story of Road Woes?
Posted: Tue Nov 09, 2021 7:47 am
Hitting OPS:
Home/Away:
2000: .762/.842*
2001: .791/.819*
2002: .743/.793*
2003: .740/.768*
2004: .706/.747
2005: .713/.704
2006: .737/.761
2007: .755/.769*
2008: .720/.695
2009: .712/.719*
2010: .623/.651
2011: .623/.658
2012: .622/.703
AVG: .711/.740
*moved fences in*
2013: .694/.696
2014: .664/.687*
2015: .715/.729
2016: .761/.752*
2017: .761/.738
2018: .693/.749*
2019: .721/.757
2020: .655/.693
2021: .663/.710*
AVG: .703/.723
Opponent OPS at SafeCo:
2000: .679
2001: .703
2002: .676
2003: .676
2004: .749
2005: .721
2006: .741
2007: .762
2008: .754
2009: .685
2010: .663
2011: .667
2012: .626
AVG: .700
*moved fences in*
2013: .715
2014: .616
2015: .689
2016: .729
2017: .712
2018: .704
2019: .766
2020: .685
2021: .684
AVG: .700
Mariners Staff Away OPS:
2000: .807*
2001: .731*
2002: .746*
2003: .722*
2004: .810
2005: .789
2006: .798
2007: .800*
2008: .815
2009: .737
2010: .768*
2011: .728
2012: .777
2013: .758
2014: .687*
2015: .779
2016: .750*
2017: .797
2018: .749*
2019: .825
2020: .807
2021: .777*
AVG: .771
Conclusion: It's not SafeCo that's holding us back. The M's do not suffer as big a disparity as I thought hitting at home versus hitting on the road. Moving the fences in seems to have helped a little bit. We see a 9 point swing for only a 20 point total disparity from 2013-2021 after the fences were moved in. 20 points isn't negligible, but it's also not back breaking. The positive thing about SafeCo is that Mariner hitters have enjoyed a slight advantage when compared to their opponents at the ballpark - an 11 point advantage with the big fences and a 3 point advantage with them moved in.
To my surprise, I found out why the Mariners have mostly been really, really bad. Their pitching staff cannot pitch on the road. We see a 71 point disparity in road OPS compared to pitching at home from 2000-2021. That's also a 38 point disparity for what opposing offenses do at their home ballparks compared to what we do in theirs.
In seasons where the Mariners made the playoffs or finished over .500 they've hit for a .761 road OPS on average. The M's staff OPS on the road in those seasons was .745 on average for a +16 point disparity in favor of the M's. In seasons where the Mariners have finished with a losing record their staffs have allowed a road OPS of .785. The M's offenses hit for an average of just .711 in such years for a disparity of -74
.
So instead of hitting better at home, the M's need to focus on hitting and pitching far better on the road than they have been. It may be that the M's need to focus on creating a stellar pitching staff and a little bit less on a dominant offense. As sad or crazy as that sounds.
Home/Away:
2000: .762/.842*
2001: .791/.819*
2002: .743/.793*
2003: .740/.768*
2004: .706/.747
2005: .713/.704
2006: .737/.761
2007: .755/.769*
2008: .720/.695
2009: .712/.719*
2010: .623/.651
2011: .623/.658
2012: .622/.703
AVG: .711/.740
*moved fences in*
2013: .694/.696
2014: .664/.687*
2015: .715/.729
2016: .761/.752*
2017: .761/.738
2018: .693/.749*
2019: .721/.757
2020: .655/.693
2021: .663/.710*
AVG: .703/.723
Opponent OPS at SafeCo:
2000: .679
2001: .703
2002: .676
2003: .676
2004: .749
2005: .721
2006: .741
2007: .762
2008: .754
2009: .685
2010: .663
2011: .667
2012: .626
AVG: .700
*moved fences in*
2013: .715
2014: .616
2015: .689
2016: .729
2017: .712
2018: .704
2019: .766
2020: .685
2021: .684
AVG: .700
Mariners Staff Away OPS:
2000: .807*
2001: .731*
2002: .746*
2003: .722*
2004: .810
2005: .789
2006: .798
2007: .800*
2008: .815
2009: .737
2010: .768*
2011: .728
2012: .777
2013: .758
2014: .687*
2015: .779
2016: .750*
2017: .797
2018: .749*
2019: .825
2020: .807
2021: .777*
AVG: .771
Conclusion: It's not SafeCo that's holding us back. The M's do not suffer as big a disparity as I thought hitting at home versus hitting on the road. Moving the fences in seems to have helped a little bit. We see a 9 point swing for only a 20 point total disparity from 2013-2021 after the fences were moved in. 20 points isn't negligible, but it's also not back breaking. The positive thing about SafeCo is that Mariner hitters have enjoyed a slight advantage when compared to their opponents at the ballpark - an 11 point advantage with the big fences and a 3 point advantage with them moved in.
To my surprise, I found out why the Mariners have mostly been really, really bad. Their pitching staff cannot pitch on the road. We see a 71 point disparity in road OPS compared to pitching at home from 2000-2021. That's also a 38 point disparity for what opposing offenses do at their home ballparks compared to what we do in theirs.
In seasons where the Mariners made the playoffs or finished over .500 they've hit for a .761 road OPS on average. The M's staff OPS on the road in those seasons was .745 on average for a +16 point disparity in favor of the M's. In seasons where the Mariners have finished with a losing record their staffs have allowed a road OPS of .785. The M's offenses hit for an average of just .711 in such years for a disparity of -74
. So instead of hitting better at home, the M's need to focus on hitting and pitching far better on the road than they have been. It may be that the M's need to focus on creating a stellar pitching staff and a little bit less on a dominant offense. As sad or crazy as that sounds.