Official win prediction thread.
Re: Official win prediction thread.
I did a quick calculation, projecting the number of wins in the remaining 19 games, using our record to date against each team as the probability that we win each remaining game against that team.
Angels 8-8 .500 (3 games)
As 8-5 .615 (6 games)
KC 3-0 1.000 (3 games)
Tex 12-4 .750 (3 games)
As 8-5 .615 (see above)
Tigers 3-0 1.000 (4 games)
The result is 14.44 wins. Starting from 80-63, the projection is 94.44 wins.
Angels 8-8 .500 (3 games)
As 8-5 .615 (6 games)
KC 3-0 1.000 (3 games)
Tex 12-4 .750 (3 games)
As 8-5 .615 (see above)
Tigers 3-0 1.000 (4 games)
The result is 14.44 wins. Starting from 80-63, the projection is 94.44 wins.
Re: Official win prediction thread.
Could recrunch the numbers until it gets down to 13.49 wins?gil wrote: ↑Sat Sep 17, 2022 6:57 pmI did a quick calculation, projecting the number of wins in the remaining 19 games, using our record to date against each team as the probability that we win each remaining game against that team.
Angels 8-8 .500 (3 games)
As 8-5 .615 (6 games)
KC 3-0 1.000 (3 games)
Tex 12-4 .750 (3 games)
As 8-5 .615 (see above)
Tigers 3-0 1.000 (4 games)
The result is 14.44 wins. Starting from 80-63, the projection is 94.44 wins.
dt
Re: Official win prediction thread.
I'll see what happens today.D-train wrote: ↑Sat Sep 17, 2022 7:01 pmCould recrunch the numbers until it gets down to 13.49 wins?gil wrote: ↑Sat Sep 17, 2022 6:57 pmI did a quick calculation, projecting the number of wins in the remaining 19 games, using our record to date against each team as the probability that we win each remaining game against that team.
Angels 8-8 .500 (3 games)
As 8-5 .615 (6 games)
KC 3-0 1.000 (3 games)
Tex 12-4 .750 (3 games)
As 8-5 .615 (see above)
Tigers 3-0 1.000 (4 games)
The result is 14.44 wins. Starting from 80-63, the projection is 94.44 wins.
Re: Official win prediction thread.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yn9s-erLyQMgil wrote: ↑Sat Sep 17, 2022 7:33 pmI'll see what happens today.D-train wrote: ↑Sat Sep 17, 2022 7:01 pmCould recrunch the numbers until it gets down to 13.49 wins?gil wrote: ↑Sat Sep 17, 2022 6:57 pmI did a quick calculation, projecting the number of wins in the remaining 19 games, using our record to date against each team as the probability that we win each remaining game against that team.
Angels 8-8 .500 (3 games)
As 8-5 .615 (6 games)
KC 3-0 1.000 (3 games)
Tex 12-4 .750 (3 games)
As 8-5 .615 (see above)
Tigers 3-0 1.000 (4 games)
The result is 14.44 wins. Starting from 80-63, the projection is 94.44 wins.
dt
Re: Official win prediction thread.
UPDATE
D-train wrote: ↑Thu Sep 15, 2022 4:48 pmI have color coded based on probability:
Blue: Snowball's chance in hell
Green: Slim to none
Orange: Saying there's a chance
Red: Sweet spot
82 SH 2-15
83 Gil 3-14
84 Bil522 4-13
85 MichaelK 5-12
86 XpertDBA 6-11
87 Ddraig 7-10
88 Sexy 8-9
89 ice 9-8
90 Juliooooo 10-7
91 desbcoach 11-6
92 daBronx 12-5
93 DT 13-4
94 CDA 14-3
95 Rocky 15-2
96 AT 16-1
97 captain 97 17-0
98 bpj OUT
99 TLO Idaho OUT
100 DavidGee OUT
101 mostonmike OUT
102 Pharmabro OUT
103 GLStorm OUT
104 Millikin OUT
Adios Monstonomiguel!
Last edited by ice99 on Mon Sep 19, 2022 9:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Official win prediction thread.
Man how things have changed. Nice work with the color coding though Bronx has prob fallen out of the Sweet spot as well given all the injuries...ice99 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 19, 2022 6:58 pmUPDATE
D-train wrote: ↑Thu Sep 15, 2022 4:48 pmI have color coded based on probability:
Blue: Snowball's chance in hell
Green: Slim to none
Orange: Saying there's a chance
Red: Sweet spot
82 SH 2-15
83 Gil 3-14
84 Bil522 4-13
85 MichaelK 5-12
86 XpertDBA 6-11
87 Ddraig 7-10
88 Sexy 8-9
89 ice 9-8
90 Juliooooo 10-7
91 desbcoach 11-6
92 daBronx 12-5
93 DT 13-4
94 CDA 14-3
95 Rocky 15-2
96 AT 16-1
97 captain 97 17-0
98 bpj OUT
99 TLO Idaho OUT
100 DavidGee OUT
101 mostonmike OUT
102 Pharmabro OUT
103 GLStorm OUT
104 Millikin OUT
Adios Monstonomiguel!
dt
Re: Official win prediction thread.
Blue: Snowball's chance in hell
Green: Slim to none
Orange: Saying there's a chance
Red: Sweet spot
82 SH 1-15
83 Gil 2-14
84 Bil522 3-13
85 MichaelK 4-12
86 XpertDBA 5-11
87 Ddraig 6-10
88 Sexy 7-9
89 ice 8-8
90 Juliooooo 9-7
91 desbcoach 10-6
92 daBronx 11-5
93 DT 12-4
94 CDA 13-3
95 Rocky 14-2
96 AT 15-1
97 captain 97 16-0
98 bpj OUT
99 TLO Idaho OUT
100 DavidGee OUT
101 mostonmike OUT
102 Pharmabro OUT
103 GLStorm OUT
104 Millikin OUT
Green: Slim to none
Orange: Saying there's a chance
Red: Sweet spot
82 SH 1-15
83 Gil 2-14
84 Bil522 3-13
85 MichaelK 4-12
86 XpertDBA 5-11
87 Ddraig 6-10
88 Sexy 7-9
89 ice 8-8
90 Juliooooo 9-7
91 desbcoach 10-6
92 daBronx 11-5
93 DT 12-4
94 CDA 13-3
95 Rocky 14-2
96 AT 15-1
97 captain 97 16-0
98 bpj OUT
99 TLO Idaho OUT
100 DavidGee OUT
101 mostonmike OUT
102 Pharmabro OUT
103 GLStorm OUT
104 Millikin OUT
dt
Re: Official win prediction thread.
Blue: Snowball's chance in hell
Green: Slim to none
Orange: Saying there's a chance
Red: Sweet spot
82 SH 1-14
83 Gil 2-13
84 Bil522 3-12
85 MichaelK 4-11
86 XpertDBA 5-10
87 Ddraig 6-9
88 Sexy 7-8
89 ice 8-7
90 Juliooooo 9-6
91 desbcoach 10-5
92 daBronx 11-4
93 DT 12-3
94 CDA 13-2
95 Rocky 14-1
96 AT 15-0
97 captain 97 OUT
98 bpj OUT
99 TLO Idaho OUT
100 DavidGee OUT
101 mostonmike OUT
102 Pharmabro OUT
103 GLStorm OUT
104 Millikin OUT
Green: Slim to none
Orange: Saying there's a chance
Red: Sweet spot
82 SH 1-14
83 Gil 2-13
84 Bil522 3-12
85 MichaelK 4-11
86 XpertDBA 5-10
87 Ddraig 6-9
88 Sexy 7-8
89 ice 8-7
90 Juliooooo 9-6
91 desbcoach 10-5
92 daBronx 11-4
93 DT 12-3
94 CDA 13-2
95 Rocky 14-1
96 AT 15-0
97 captain 97 OUT
98 bpj OUT
99 TLO Idaho OUT
100 DavidGee OUT
101 mostonmike OUT
102 Pharmabro OUT
103 GLStorm OUT
104 Millikin OUT
Re: Official win prediction thread.
Blue: Snowball's chance in hell
Green: Slim to none
Orange: Saying there's a chance
Red: Sweet spot
82 SH 0-13
83 Gil 1-12
84 Bil522 2-11
85 MichaelK 3-10
86 XpertDBA 4-9
87 Ddraig 5-8
88 Sexy 6-7
89 ice 7-6
90 Juliooooo 8-5
91 desbcoach 9-4
92 daBronx 10-3
93 DT 11-2
94 CDA 12-1
95 Rocky 13-0
96 AT OUT
97 captain 97 OUT
98 bpj OUT
99 TLO Idaho OUT
100 DavidGee OUT
101 mostonmike OUT
102 Pharmabro OUT
103 GLStorm OUT
104 Millikin OUT
Green: Slim to none
Orange: Saying there's a chance
Red: Sweet spot
82 SH 0-13
83 Gil 1-12
84 Bil522 2-11
85 MichaelK 3-10
86 XpertDBA 4-9
87 Ddraig 5-8
88 Sexy 6-7
89 ice 7-6
90 Juliooooo 8-5
91 desbcoach 9-4
92 daBronx 10-3
93 DT 11-2
94 CDA 12-1
95 Rocky 13-0
96 AT OUT
97 captain 97 OUT
98 bpj OUT
99 TLO Idaho OUT
100 DavidGee OUT
101 mostonmike OUT
102 Pharmabro OUT
103 GLStorm OUT
104 Millikin OUT