Official win prediction thread.

[gil]

I did a quick calculation, projecting the number of wins in the remaining 19 games, using our record to date against each team as the probability that we win each remaining game against that team.

Angels 8-8 .500 (3 games)
As 8-5 .615 (6 games)
KC 3-0 1.000 (3 games)
Tex 12-4 .750 (3 games)
As 8-5 .615 (see above)
Tigers 3-0 1.000 (4 games)

The result is 14.44 wins. Starting from 80-63, the projection is 94.44 wins.

[D-train]

I did a quick calculation, projecting the number of wins in the remaining 19 games, using our record to date against each team as the probability that we win each remaining game against that team.

Angels 8-8 .500 (3 games)
As 8-5 .615 (6 games)
KC 3-0 1.000 (3 games)
Tex 12-4 .750 (3 games)
As 8-5 .615 (see above)
Tigers 3-0 1.000 (4 games)

The result is 14.44 wins. Starting from 80-63, the projection is 94.44 wins.

Could recrunch the numbers until it gets down to 13.49 wins?

[gil]

I did a quick calculation, projecting the number of wins in the remaining 19 games, using our record to date against each team as the probability that we win each remaining game against that team.

Angels 8-8 .500 (3 games)
As 8-5 .615 (6 games)
KC 3-0 1.000 (3 games)
Tex 12-4 .750 (3 games)
As 8-5 .615 (see above)
Tigers 3-0 1.000 (4 games)

The result is 14.44 wins. Starting from 80-63, the projection is 94.44 wins.

Could recrunch the numbers until it gets down to 13.49 wins?

I'll see what happens today.

[D-train]

I did a quick calculation, projecting the number of wins in the remaining 19 games, using our record to date against each team as the probability that we win each remaining game against that team.

Angels 8-8 .500 (3 games)
As 8-5 .615 (6 games)
KC 3-0 1.000 (3 games)
Tex 12-4 .750 (3 games)
As 8-5 .615 (see above)
Tigers 3-0 1.000 (4 games)

The result is 14.44 wins. Starting from 80-63, the projection is 94.44 wins.

Could recrunch the numbers until it gets down to 13.49 wins?

I'll see what happens today.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yn9s-erLyQM

[ice99]

UPDATE

I have color coded based on probability:

Blue: Snowball's chance in hell
Green: Slim to none
Orange: Saying there's a chance
Red: Sweet spot

82 SH 2-15
83 Gil 3-14
84 Bil522 4-13
85 MichaelK 5-12
86 XpertDBA 6-11
87 Ddraig 7-10
88 Sexy 8-9
89 ice 9-8
90 Juliooooo 10-7
91 desbcoach 11-6
92 daBronx 12-5
93 DT 13-4
94 CDA 14-3
95 Rocky 15-2
96 AT 16-1
97 captain 97 17-0
98 bpj OUT
99 TLO Idaho OUT
100 DavidGee OUT
101 mostonmike OUT
102 Pharmabro OUT
103 GLStorm OUT
104 Millikin OUT

Adios Monstonomiguel!

[D-train]

UPDATE

I have color coded based on probability:

Blue: Snowball's chance in hell
Green: Slim to none
Orange: Saying there's a chance
Red: Sweet spot

82 SH 2-15
83 Gil 3-14
84 Bil522 4-13
85 MichaelK 5-12
86 XpertDBA 6-11
87 Ddraig 7-10
88 Sexy 8-9
89 ice 9-8
90 Juliooooo 10-7
91 desbcoach 11-6
92 daBronx 12-5
93 DT 13-4
94 CDA 14-3
95 Rocky 15-2
96 AT 16-1
97 captain 97 17-0
98 bpj OUT
99 TLO Idaho OUT
100 DavidGee OUT
101 mostonmike OUT
102 Pharmabro OUT
103 GLStorm OUT
104 Millikin OUT

Adios Monstonomiguel!

Man how things have changed. Nice work with the color coding though Bronx has prob fallen out of the Sweet spot as well given all the injuries...

[ice99]

[
Man how things have changed. Nice work with the color coding though Bronx has prob fallen out of the Sweet spot as well given all the injuries...

Done.

[D-train]

Blue: Snowball's chance in hell
Green: Slim to none
Orange: Saying there's a chance
Red: Sweet spot

82 SH 1-15
83 Gil 2-14
84 Bil522 3-13
85 MichaelK 4-12
86 XpertDBA 5-11
87 Ddraig 6-10
88 Sexy 7-9
89 ice 8-8
90 Juliooooo 9-7
91 desbcoach 10-6
92 daBronx 11-5
93 DT 12-4
94 CDA 13-3
95 Rocky 14-2
96 AT 15-1
97 captain 97 16-0
98 bpj OUT
99 TLO Idaho OUT
100 DavidGee OUT
101 mostonmike OUT
102 Pharmabro OUT
103 GLStorm OUT
104 Millikin OUT

[ice99]

Blue: Snowball's chance in hell
Green: Slim to none
Orange: Saying there's a chance
Red: Sweet spot

82 SH 1-14
83 Gil 2-13
84 Bil522 3-12
85 MichaelK 4-11
86 XpertDBA 5-10
87 Ddraig 6-9
88 Sexy 7-8
89 ice 8-7
90 Juliooooo 9-6
91 desbcoach 10-5
92 daBronx 11-4
93 DT 12-3
94 CDA 13-2
95 Rocky 14-1
96 AT 15-0
97 captain 97 OUT
98 bpj OUT
99 TLO Idaho OUT
100 DavidGee OUT
101 mostonmike OUT
102 Pharmabro OUT
103 GLStorm OUT
104 Millikin OUT

[ice99]

Blue: Snowball's chance in hell
Green: Slim to none
Orange: Saying there's a chance
Red: Sweet spot

82 SH 0-13
83 Gil 1-12
84 Bil522 2-11
85 MichaelK 3-10
86 XpertDBA 4-9
87 Ddraig 5-8
88 Sexy 6-7
89 ice 7-6
90 Juliooooo 8-5
91 desbcoach 9-4
92 daBronx 10-3
93 DT 11-2
94 CDA 12-1
95 Rocky 13-0
96 AT OUT
97 captain 97 OUT
98 bpj OUT
99 TLO Idaho OUT
100 DavidGee OUT
101 mostonmike OUT
102 Pharmabro OUT
103 GLStorm OUT
104 Millikin OUT