Keith Law Scouting Notebook: Cactus League Brash and Kirby

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Keith Law Scouting Notebook: Cactus League Brash and Kirby

Post by Sexymarinersfan » Wed Mar 30, 2022 4:31 am

George Kirby was Seattle’s first-round pick in 2019 and became the team’s top pitching prospect last year when he started hitting 100-101 and showed advanced control as a starter. The Elon alum threw three scoreless innings against the A’s on Friday, piggybacking with fellow right-hander Matt Brash, and though it wasn’t Kirby’s best, his last inning in particular showed why he’s their highest-upside arm.

Kirby was 96-98 on Sunday and looked like he was just playing catch the whole time, moving the pitch around and locating well to his glove side. He threw all four pitches, getting more comfortable with the curveball as his outing went along, with better depth and command of the pitch in his last inning, using it to backdoor a lefty for a called third strike. He didn’t have great feel for his changeup, which was his best secondary pitch last year, telegraphing it throughout the outing with slower arm speed, although to his credit he buried one under a right-handed hitter’s hands. I like the confidence and the apparent ease with which he’s showing that velocity, especially for a fastball that doesn’t have great spin or movement on it. There’s a good mid-rotation floor here if he stays healthy, with more ceiling if the off-speed pitches progress further with more experience — he has just 90.2 pro innings due to the pandemic and a tired shoulder in 2021.

Brash went three hitless innings to start the game, carving up the same Oakland lineup with two breaking balls that blend together into a sort of power slurve, although the slider end of the range at 85-88 is a grade 70 offering. He was 95-99 and the ball gets in on right-handers so quickly that he gets some defensive swings against it, and when he goes to the curveball at 82-83 — or the slow slurve, whatever you want to call it — it’s an above-average weapon. His changeup was a 40 on Sunday, though, with reduced arm speed and not much action on the pitch, and the delivery is about as rough as you can see from a potential starter. He’s on the first-base side and cuts himself way off at release, with lots of effort and some head violence at release. It is premium, premium stuff, especially against right-handers, and if he’s the Mariners’ fifth starter this year, which is more likely because he’s already on the 40-man, he’s going to miss a lot of bats.

The one A’s hitter who had good at-bats against both pitchers was newly acquired infielder Kevin Smith, who took a number of close pitches for balls, working a walk off Kirby and reaching on an error when he grounded out off Brash’s slider.

Frankie Montas might be traded before I finish this sentence, but he wasn’t great in his start against the Mariners. He was 94-98 with a plus changeup, but the breaking ball is still below average and it’s average control with below-average command. I know many contenders looking for a starter are monitoring him, but he’s benefited a lot from Oakland’s spacious home park, and the lack of a viable breaking ball will be a bigger concern when he doesn’t have that extra margin of error.


DT was spot on when he said he feels that if Brash is our number five option going into the season, he's our best bet. And I agree. Kirby only has 90 innings of work in the system and could use some more refining, which isn't a bad thing. I don't think he's lost any of his luster. He'll most likely be here at some point this year. Flexen and now Gilbert have had shaky back to back outings. So Sheffield, Kirby, and Margevicius better be ready.

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