Mariner Talk Chat Forum

This is to put your actual prediction. Not a contest, so it doesn't matter how many pick the same number. I want to see where the bell curve lies on this board and we can see how Mariners do in relation to that.

Place your actual prediction in this thread if you'd like (only 10 answers allowed per poll)

I'm going to go with 90.

I went with 93 but that's what I thought we were going to get another top-of-the-rotation starter. Right now probably be at 89. But like I said I just did what I think is a pretty reasonable War projection and came up with 100.5. I wish I could figure out how to copy and paste it but I probably get it done tonight

Last year my War projection was about 93 so I feel like we have added 7 wins.

93 is my prediction as well.

If they are healthy, The rotation is going to be a lot better than last year. Ray replacing Yusei is probably 3 wins in and of itself. Marco should be a bounce back candidate and improve at least a little bit. Gilbert showed great growth towards the end of last year and should keep progressing as he gets his feet under him. I think the world of Brash and think he could take the rotation to the next level. Sheffield started 15 games and posted a negetive WAR so that is addition by subtraction. The only one I am a little bit concerned about is Flexen. he is probably due for a little bit of a regression.

Offensively they should easily be able to score another 50-100 runs. You can probably count on Suarez to be about an equal replacement for the stats that Kyle Seager produced last season. Last year our second baseman combined to hit .223 with a .653 OPS. That is being replaced by Frazier who hit .305 with a .779 OPS. Even if he regresses back to his career numbers that is still going to be a massive improvement. Last year the center field and Left field positions both produced batting averages under .200 and OPS's of .662 and .617 respectively. That is being replaced by Winker and Julio two more major upgrades.

Defensively they will probably take a bit of a step back. Suarez/Toro are not going to fill Seagers shoes at 3B. Winker is not great in the outfield and we don't really have a true center fielder in the lineup. Frazier is excellent at 2b though so that will mitigate some of that.

Bullpen, who knows they are always so fickle. but it should be good on paper.

I don't get the regression fears with flexin. He's only 28 years old. Of course it's possible but it's also possible he can be a little bit better with one more year of experience

D-train wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 06, 2022 4:12 pm

I don't get the regression fears with flexin. He's only 28 years old. Of course it's possible but it's also possible he can be a little bit better with one more year of experience

I'm mostly worried about the bullpen, and less good luck. Suarez could match Seagers numbers, but may not be as clutch. Mariners could go 70% in 1 run games this year and that's a net loss of 3-4 games over last year.

I think the run differential will be positive this year though

86. The D will be worse with Seager gone and Kelenic/Winker in the outfield and the SP depth is nonexistent.

D-train wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 06, 2022 4:12 pm

I don't get the regression fears with flexin. He's only 28 years old. Of course it's possible but it's also possible he can be a little bit better with one more year of experience

So you aren't the slightest bit concerned that he gave up 13 runs in 16 innings this spring?

Captain 97 wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 06, 2022 5:13 pm

D-train wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 06, 2022 4:12 pm

I don't get the regression fears with flexin. He's only 28 years old. Of course it's possible but it's also possible he can be a little bit better with one more year of experience

So you aren't the slightest bit concerned that he gave up 13 runs in 16 innings this spring?

spring training is meaningless for Veterans for the most part.