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Kyle Seager, Eugenio Suarez comp

Posted: Sat Jun 04, 2022 4:12 am
by harmony
Kyle Seager was a 6-foot, 216-pound lefthand-hitting third baseman while Eugenio Suarez is a 5-foot-11, 213-pound righthand-hitting third baseman.

Seager was 27 years old with three years and 85 days of MLB service in December 2014 when the Seattle Mariners signed Seager to a seven-year, $100 million extension, buying out his three arbitration seasons. The contract included a 2022 club option for $15 million plus escalators.

Suarez was 26 years and eight months old with three years and 61 days of MLB service in March 2018 when the Cincinnati Reds signed Suarez to a seven-year, $66 million extension, buying out his three arbitration seasons (after Suarez lost a contested arbitration hearing). The contract includes a 2025 club option for $15 million.

When he signed the extension, Seager had posted 13.8 fWAR, valued at $99.3 million, in 527 games. Over the course of the seven-year contract Seager posted 21.4 fWAR, valued at $171 million, in 953 games.

When he signed the extension, Suarez had posted 7.6 fWAR, valued at $60 million, in 497 games. Four-plus seasons into his seven-year contract Suarez had posted 10.7 fWAR, valued at $86.4 million, in 554 games heading into Friday's contest.

Seager won a Gold Glove and made his only All Star appearance the season before signing his extension while Suarez made his only All Star appearance the season after he signed his extension.

Just shy of Seager's 34th birthday, the Mariners declined the 2022 club option for $15 million plus escalators. If the Mariners keep Suarez around, about four months after his 33rd birthday in 2024 the M's must decide the 2025 club option for $15 million.

Much can happen between now and the 2025 option decision but Suarez is on pace to post 3+ WAR this season. The Suarez contract may no longer appear underwater but would Suarez be worth $15 million if the option were for 2023?

Re: Kyle Seager, Eugenio Suarez comp

Posted: Sat Jun 04, 2022 6:43 am
by ice99
I'll say this, Geno is looking worthy of his contract. The M's don't have a compelling replacement at third at this time. I suppose France could put up more than 3 WAR at third base, but it's not necessary. From France's interview that DT posted, France expected to be the Padre's starting third baseman at one time.

Going forward, Noelvi Marte could be a replacement. Marte needs to be added to the 40 man at the end of the year, as he will be rule 5 eligible. But he'll probably won't be in the show until 2024, or late 2023. For me, the question will be whether Suarez will have established himself again as an expected 3 WAR performer, or if not, whether a 3+ WAR option will be available for 2023.

Re: Kyle Seager, Eugenio Suarez comp

Posted: Sat Jun 04, 2022 1:35 pm
by Sibelius Hindemith
harmony wrote:
Sat Jun 04, 2022 4:12 am
Over the course of the seven-year contract Seager posted 21.4 fWAR, valued at $171 million, in 953 games.
So an 81-81 team should have a payroll of $256 mil?

Re: Kyle Seager, Eugenio Suarez comp

Posted: Sat Jun 04, 2022 1:42 pm
by D-train
Sibelius Hindemith wrote:
Sat Jun 04, 2022 1:35 pm
harmony wrote:
Sat Jun 04, 2022 4:12 am
Over the course of the seven-year contract Seager posted 21.4 fWAR, valued at $171 million, in 953 games.
So an 81-81 team should have a payroll of $256 mil?
WAR $s refers to the the amount required to purchase WAR in the FA market. It is way too simplistic though. Should be diminishing returns like:

1 WAR = $8M
2 WAR = $14M
3 WAR = $19M
4 WAR = $23M
5 WAR = $26M
6 WAR = $28M
7 WAR = $30M

Re: Kyle Seager, Eugenio Suarez comp

Posted: Sat Jun 04, 2022 1:45 pm
by harmony
Sibelius Hindemith wrote:
Sat Jun 04, 2022 1:35 pm
harmony wrote:
Sat Jun 04, 2022 4:12 am
Over the course of the seven-year contract Seager posted 21.4 fWAR, valued at $171 million, in 953 games.
So an 81-81 team should have a payroll of $256 mil?
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/win-values- ... -part-six/

Re: Kyle Seager, Eugenio Suarez comp

Posted: Sat Jun 04, 2022 2:03 pm
by Sibelius Hindemith
Okay i git it now. :geek:

Re: Kyle Seager, Eugenio Suarez comp

Posted: Sat Jun 04, 2022 2:05 pm
by Sibelius Hindemith
Of course if every player was a free agent those numbers for the value of WAR wouldn't hold up.

Re: Kyle Seager, Eugenio Suarez comp

Posted: Sat Jun 04, 2022 2:37 pm
by Donn Beach
Yeah, the economics are based on a combination of undervalued pre-FA players and actual FAs. Commented before it be interesting to use Findley's position of all players being FAs every year. MLB was agast at the concept but it would have been the most efficient system to run contracts

Re: Kyle Seager, Eugenio Suarez comp

Posted: Sat Jun 04, 2022 2:59 pm
by Sibelius Hindemith
Donn Beach wrote:
Sat Jun 04, 2022 2:37 pm
Yeah, the economics are based on a combination of undervalued pre-FA players and actual FAs. Commented before it be interesting to use Findley's position of all players being FAs every year. MLB was agast at the concept but it would have been the most efficient system to run contracts
If they combined that with a salary cap it would be great. I'm sure the players union would never go for that since they don't seem to care about younger players getting paid.

Re: Kyle Seager, Eugenio Suarez comp

Posted: Sat Jun 04, 2022 3:06 pm
by Donn Beach
It's not the players union as much as it's the owners. MLB is different from the other leagues, it goes back to them being organized at the turn of the 20th century. It's a collection of individual businesses. They are resistant to being told how to spend their money