What does the top 100 mean for the future?

[Captain 97]

I was curious just how useful the top prospect lists are. So just to get a sampling, I went back and looked at the top 100 list from 2017 to see what I could glean. Here is the list with each players career WAR 5 years later.

1. Andrew Benintendi, OF, BOS 14.5
2. Yoán Moncada, 2B, CWS 12.2
3. Gleyber Torres, SS, NYY 10.0
4. Dansby Swanson, SS, ATL 12.3
5. Amed Rosario, SS, NYM 7.8
6. Alex Reyes, RHP, STL 2.5
7. J.P. Crawford, SS, PHI 10.4
8. Victor Robles, OF, WAS 5.6
9. Tyler Glasnow, RHP, PIT 4.7
10. Austin Meadows, OF, PIT 6.7
11. Ozzie Albies, 2B/SS, ATL 15.1
12. Lucas Giolito, RHP, CWS 10.4
13. Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF, LAD 18.1
14. Eloy Jiménez, OF, CHC 3.3
15. Brendan Rodgers, COL, SS/2B 2.4
16. Michael Kopech, RHP, CWS 3.5
17. Rafael Devers, 3B, BOS 14.4
18. Lewis Brinson, OF, MIL -3.4
19. Mickey Moniak, OF, PHI -.8
20. Francis Martes, RHP, HOU -.9
21. Willy Adames, SS, TB 12.6
22. Bradley Zimmer, OF, CLE 2.8
23. Manuel Margot, OF, SD 11.4
24. Clint Frazier, OF, NYY 0.2
25. Anderson Espinoza, RHP, SD 0.0
26. Nick Senzel, 3B, CIN 1.3
27. Josh Bell, 1B/OF, PIT 9.3
28. Ian Happ, 2B/OF, CHC 9.2
29. Kyle Lewis, OF, SEA 2.7
30. Corey Ray, OF, MIL 0.0
31. Brent Honeywell, RHP, TB -.2
32. Kevin Maitan, SS, ATL No MLB
32. José De León, RHP, TB -1.7
34. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B, TOR 11.9
35. Kyle Tucker, OF, HOU 11.5
36. Tyler O'Neill, OF, SEA 8.7
37. Blake Rutherford, OF, NYY No MLB
38. Josh Hader, LHP, MIL 12.0
39. Carson Kelly, C, STL 2.2
40. Francisco Mejía, C, CLE 1.5
41. Jay Groome, LHP, BOS No MLB
42. Hunter Renfroe, OF, SD 9.5
43. Braxton Garrett, LHP, MIA 0.1
44. Jeff Hoffman, RHP, COL -.3
45. Reynaldo López, RHP, CWS 3.9
46. Aaron Judge, OF, NYY 29.9
47. Jorge Mateo, SS/2B, NYY 1.4
48. Mitch Keller, RHP, PIT -.7
49. Yadier Alvarez, RHP, LAD No MLB
50. Nick Gordon, SS, MIN 0.8
51. Riley Pint, RHP, COL No MLB
52. Franklin Barreto, SS/2B, OAK -1.0
53. Kolby Allard, LHP, ATL -1.0
54. David Paulino, RHP, HOU -.3
55. Leody Taveras, OF, TEX 1.2
56. Yohander Méndez, LHP, TEX -.2
57. Triston McKenzie, RHP, CLE 2.8
58. James Kaprielian, RHP, NYY 1.1
59. Kevin Newman, SS, PIT 2.0
60. Erick Fedde, RHP, WAS 1.4
61. Alex Verdugo, OF, LAD 7.4
62. Luis Ortiz, RHP, MIL -.4
63. Dominic Smith, 1B, NYM 0.6
64. Sean Reid-Foley, RHP, TOR -.5
65. Isan Diaz, SS/2B, MIL -2.6
66. Amir Garrett, LHP, CIN -.1
67. Jesse Winker, OF, CIN 5.2
68. Luke Weaver, RHP, STL 1.5
69. A.J. Puk, LHP, OAK 0.7
70. Anthony Alford, OF, TOR 0.0
71. Carson Fulmer, RHP, CWS -1.2
72. Jorge Alfaro, C, PHI 3.5
73. German Márquez, RHP, COL 15.7
74. Matt Manning, RHP, DET -.1
75. Jake Bauers, OF/1B, TB -.6
76. Albert Almora Jr., OF, CHC 2.7
77. Dylan Cease, RHP, CHC 4.9
78. Mike Soroka, RHP, ATL 6.1
79. Justus Sheffield, LHP, NYY -.6
80. Sean Newcomb, LHP, ATL 3.0
81. Zack Collins, C, CWS -.7
82. Willie Calhoun, 2B, LAD -1.6
83. Derek Fisher, OF, HOU 0.2
84. Forrest Whitley, RHP, HOU No MLB
85. Grant Holmes, RHP, OAK No MLB
86. Ian Anderson, RHP, ATL 3.9
87. Robert Stephenson, RHP, CIN -.4
88. Tyler Beede, RHP, SF 0.2
89. Christian Arroyo, INF, SF 1.3
90. Raimel Tapia, OF, COL -.3
91. Delvin Perez, SS, STL No MLB
92. Stephen Gonsalves, RHP, MIN -.6
93. Walker Buehler, RHP, LAD 13.2
94. Richard Ureña, SS, TOR 0.1
95. Bobby Bradley, 1B, CLE -.4
96. Jeimer Candelario, 3B/1B, CHC 6.2
97. Cal Quantrill, RHP, SD 5.7
98. Alex Kirilloff, OF, MIN 0.2
99. Chance Sisco, C, BAL -.1
100. Matt Chapman, 3B/SS, OAK 24.3

[Captain 97]

Here are a few takeaways.
92% of the guys on the list have made it to the Show. The other 8% are all still playing in the minor leagues so being on the top 100 means you are likely going to have some longevity in the game.

The most successful guys on the list were not at the top. Aaron Judge at 46 and Matt Chapman at 100 have the highest career WAR’s. Bellinger who won an MVP is just outside the top 10 at 13 and Vlad Jr. was at 34.

26% of the guys on the list have been below replacement level for their careers.
35% have been run of the mill players with a career WAR between 0 and 5.
12 % have been decent players with career WARs between 5 and 10
18% have been above average with Career WARs over 10

[D-train]

Here are a few takeaways.
92% of the guys on the list have made it to the Show. The other 8% are all still playing in the minor leagues so being on the top 100 means you are likely going to have some longevity in the game.

The most successful guys on the list were not at the top. Aaron Judge at 46 and Matt Chapman at 100 have the highest career WAR’s. Bellinger who won an MVP is just outside the top 10 at 11 and Vlad Jr. was at 34.

26% of the guys on the list have been below replacement level for their careers.
35% have been run of the mill players with a career WAR between 0 and 5.
12 % have been decent players with career WARs between 5 and 10
18% have been above average with Career WARs over 10

Thanks for this. If you have it in excel it would be cool to do a scatter chart to see how correlated WAR is to ranking.

[Vogelbomb]

Man, I didn't know Benintendi was ranked 1 overall at one point. And Amed Rosario, a top 5 prospect? Get outta here

[Captain 97]

Here are a few takeaways.
92% of the guys on the list have made it to the Show. The other 8% are all still playing in the minor leagues so being on the top 100 means you are likely going to have some longevity in the game.

The most successful guys on the list were not at the top. Aaron Judge at 46 and Matt Chapman at 100 have the highest career WAR’s. Bellinger who won an MVP is just outside the top 10 at 11 and Vlad Jr. was at 34.

26% of the guys on the list have been below replacement level for their careers.
35% have been run of the mill players with a career WAR between 0 and 5.
12 % have been decent players with career WARs between 5 and 10
18% have been above average with Career WARs over 10

Thanks for this. If you have it in excel it would be cool to do a scatter chart to see how correlated WAR is to ranking.

I have it in excel but I am not super proficient with excel and wouldn't know where to start to make a scatter chart. if you want to give it a shot you can message me your e-mail address and I'' send it to you.

[D-train]

I just sent it. I have created 1000s of graphs in my day and will be able to do it in less than two minutes.

[Juliooooo]

Rankings are certainly not perfect, but they are far from meaningless. Kind of like cfb recruiting rankings

[D-train]

Ok the first one is if there was a perfect correlation between ranking and WAR. The higher the ranking the higher the WAR. I had to reverse the ranking so it would make sense. #1 one prospect is 100 and #100 prospect is now 1. The second one is the actual data which shows some correlation but not a lot.

g1.JPG (30.01 KiB) Viewed 442 times

g2.JPG (30.3 KiB) Viewed 442 times

[D-train]

One takeaway is that you are not in the top 50 you are far less likely to be a good player with 10+ WAR. Only a handful of the 51-100s did it vs. quite a few of the top 50s. Also the vast majority of about zero WAR guys are in the bottom 50.

[harmony]

The issue has been studied:

https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... _Selection

https://tht.fangraphs.com/tht-live/anal ... using-war/

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/20 ... ks_and.php

https://www.mlb.com/news/draft-all-stars-correlation