Javier Baez- Buy Low Candidate

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bpj
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Javier Baez- Buy Low Candidate

Post by bpj » Thu Aug 11, 2022 9:04 pm

Home:
PA: 185
OBP: .227
OPS: .474
1B: 22
2B: 6
3B: 0
HR: 2
wRC+: 33


Away:
PA: 212
OBP: .292
OPS: .765
1B: 25
2B: 16
3B: 2
HR: 8
wRC+: 115

So he has extra base hits are 26 on the road, 8 at home. Preposterous.


Eugenio Suarez is at 21 xBH in Away games, and 18 xBH in Home games, for reference.

Julio is at 17 xBH in Away games, and 22 xBH in Home games.

Not to say that Baez wouldn't get eaten alive by T-Mobile in a similar manner, but depending how much cash they're willing to eat, Baez could become an option imo.

Pharmabro
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Re: Javier Baez- Buy Low Candidate

Post by Pharmabro » Thu Aug 11, 2022 9:07 pm

no

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D-train
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Re: Javier Baez- Buy Low Candidate

Post by D-train » Thu Aug 11, 2022 9:07 pm

bpj wrote:
Thu Aug 11, 2022 9:04 pm
Home:
PA: 185
OBP: .227
OPS: .474
1B: 22
2B: 6
3B: 0
HR: 2
wRC+: 33


Away:
PA: 212
OBP: .292
OPS: .765
1B: 25
2B: 16
3B: 2
HR: 8
wRC+: 115

So he has extra base hits are 26 on the road, 8 at home. Preposterous.


Eugenio Suarez is at 21 xBH in Away games, and 18 xBH in Home games, for reference.

Julio is at 17 xBH in Away games, and 22 xBH in Home games.

Not to say that Baez wouldn't get eaten alive by T-Mobile in a similar manner, but depending how much cash they're willing to eat, Baez could become an option imo.
I would take the Ghost of Julio Cruz over Frazier at this point so I'm in.
dt

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bpj
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Re: Javier Baez- Buy Low Candidate

Post by bpj » Thu Aug 11, 2022 9:18 pm

D-train wrote:
Thu Aug 11, 2022 9:07 pm
bpj wrote:
Thu Aug 11, 2022 9:04 pm
Home:
PA: 185
OBP: .227
OPS: .474
1B: 22
2B: 6
3B: 0
HR: 2
wRC+: 33


Away:
PA: 212
OBP: .292
OPS: .765
1B: 25
2B: 16
3B: 2
HR: 8
wRC+: 115

So he has extra base hits are 26 on the road, 8 at home. Preposterous.


Eugenio Suarez is at 21 xBH in Away games, and 18 xBH in Home games, for reference.

Julio is at 17 xBH in Away games, and 22 xBH in Home games.

Not to say that Baez wouldn't get eaten alive by T-Mobile in a similar manner, but depending how much cash they're willing to eat, Baez could become an option imo.
I would take the Ghost of Julio Cruz over Frazier at this point so I'm in.
It wouldn't be my first choice either, but if they eat enough where he's coming at an Adam Frazier salary it would be something to think about.

There's Trea Turner then a few in the next tier, Baez is probably in that discussion given that he's still more-than-holding his own outside of Detroit.

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seattlefan-daBronx
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Re: Javier Baez- Buy Low Candidate

Post by seattlefan-daBronx » Fri Aug 12, 2022 12:41 am

Just think Xander Bogearts dudes playing 2nd base for our Seattle Mariners.

I think we get into the playoffs and the team will be ready to spend some mullah next year.

He's my first choice on the wishlist anyway.
Pronouns: Kiss/My/Ass

ice99
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Re: Javier Baez- Buy Low Candidate

Post by ice99 » Fri Aug 12, 2022 1:13 am

Baez's OBP (.240) and OPS (.556) against RHP is too low. I'm not sure what's going on with him.

M's hitters vs. RHP.
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OBPvRHP.PNG
OBPvRHP.PNG (30.75 KiB) Viewed 371 times
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Last edited by ice99 on Fri Aug 12, 2022 1:21 am, edited 3 times in total.

GL_Storm
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Re: Javier Baez- Buy Low Candidate

Post by GL_Storm » Fri Aug 12, 2022 1:16 am

Isn't Comerica supposed to be a more hitter friendly park? Why would we think Baez would do better here? Or do we not think that?

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bpj
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Re: Javier Baez- Buy Low Candidate

Post by bpj » Fri Aug 12, 2022 1:38 am

GL_Storm wrote:
Fri Aug 12, 2022 1:16 am
Isn't Comerica supposed to be a more hitter friendly park? Why would we think Baez would do better here? Or do we not think that?
I think there are only maybe 1 or 2 shortstops/second basemen in MLB that wouldn't be detrimentally impacted by being in T-Mobile.

Every single one of them is likely to have better road than home numbers.

Maybe a couple have the power that could negate the effects of T-Mobile. Maybe Machado, maybe Correa. Everyone else is going to have an OPS fifty points higher on the road.

So where do we draw the line, who would be good enough, if any?

That's above my pay grade. But at $8-$10M per year if the Tigers eat some of the contract, I may take the chance that Baez could be better than JP, or better than the other available second basemen at least, assuming Bogaerts and Turner sign elsewhere.

harmony
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Location: Portland OR

Re: Javier Baez- Buy Low Candidate

Post by harmony » Fri Aug 12, 2022 2:19 am

Javier Baez and Adam Frazier share the same career wRC+ of 100 although this year Baez is at 77 and Frazier at 81:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/javie ... tion=2B/SS

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/adam- ... tion=2B/OF

Baez has a career on-base percentage of .302 and a career strikeout rate of 28.8 percent while Frazier has a career OBP of .338 and a career strikeout rate of 12.8 percent. This year Baez has an OBP of .262 with a .266 BABIP while Frazier has an OBP of .304 with a .269 BABIP.

Baez, who is one year younger than Frazier, has a career fWAR of 22.5 in 959 games while Frazier has a career fWAR of 11.4 in 776 games. This year Frazier has an fWAR of 0.8 in 97 games while Frazier has an fWAR of 0.9 in 111 games.

Baez has 16 defensive runs saved and a UZR/150 of 0.6 in 2,141 career innings at second base while Frazier has 13 DRS and a UZR/150 of -0,4 in 4,174 career innings at second base.

Frazier, who is likely gone after this season, may be unpopular on this forum but Baez is unlikely to maintain fans with his low OBP and high strikeout rate.

The Mariners will need a second baseman next year but the market may lack obvious targets.

GL_Storm
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Re: Javier Baez- Buy Low Candidate

Post by GL_Storm » Fri Aug 12, 2022 4:19 am

bpj wrote:
Fri Aug 12, 2022 1:38 am
GL_Storm wrote:
Fri Aug 12, 2022 1:16 am
Isn't Comerica supposed to be a more hitter friendly park? Why would we think Baez would do better here? Or do we not think that?
I think there are only maybe 1 or 2 shortstops/second basemen in MLB that wouldn't be detrimentally impacted by being in T-Mobile.

Every single one of them is likely to have better road than home numbers.

Maybe a couple have the power that could negate the effects of T-Mobile. Maybe Machado, maybe Correa. Everyone else is going to have an OPS fifty points higher on the road.

So where do we draw the line, who would be good enough, if any?

That's above my pay grade. But at $8-$10M per year if the Tigers eat some of the contract, I may take the chance that Baez could be better than JP, or better than the other available second basemen at least, assuming Bogaerts and Turner sign elsewhere.
Right, but why is he particularly bad at Comerica, which is supposed to be more hitter friendly? It doesn't make sense.

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