Torrens out, Casali in

Captain 97
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Re: Torrens out, Casali in

Post by Captain 97 » Fri Aug 12, 2022 5:05 pm

bpj wrote:
Fri Aug 12, 2022 4:53 pm
Am I alone in not seeing anything special from Kelenic? He doesn't appear to be an exceptional physical athlete, average for MLB standards I'd say.

It was never his numbers that made him stand out, so what was it?

When I think of a top prospect it's a guy thats doing better than the others in the team/league. Kelenic had the edge in age I'm assuming, but the numbers weren't eye opening relative to what his teammates did.

Never saw an inkling of anything special with Kelenic. Although Kelenic seemed a little "special" at times if you know what I mean. Smashing bats and all, kid's a headcase.

Pencil him in as the 4th OF, I'm all for that. Just stop handing him playing time for him to squander expecting results.

2024 is the soonest Kelenic should sniff T-Mobile again.
He does hit the ball hard when he manages to square it up. He had 14 HR in a little over half a season last year which is pretty impressive for a 22 year old. Other than that he doesn't offer much that I can see.

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D-train
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Re: Torrens out, Casali in

Post by D-train » Fri Aug 12, 2022 6:17 pm

bpj wrote:
Fri Aug 12, 2022 4:53 pm
Am I alone in not seeing anything special from Kelenic? He doesn't appear to be an exceptional physical athlete, average for MLB standards I'd say.

It was never his numbers that made him stand out, so what was it?

When I think of a top prospect it's a guy thats doing better than the others in the team/league. Kelenic had the edge in age I'm assuming, but the numbers weren't eye opening relative to what his teammates did.

Never saw an inkling of anything special with Kelenic. Although Kelenic seemed a little "special" at times if you know what I mean. Smashing bats and all, kid's a headcase.

Pencil him in as the 4th OF, I'm all for that. Just stop handing him playing time for him to squander expecting results.

2024 is the soonest Kelenic should sniff T-Mobile again.
He has had 4 stints now in the big leagues.
1. May-June 2021 .096/.378 Good God :?
2. July-Sept. 2021 .209/.693 Hey improvement! lol :|
3. OD 2022- May .140/.510 Oops! :cry:
4. July 31st-Yesterday .074/.259 Yep his OPS is what his BA should be. :roll:
dt

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ddraig
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Re: Torrens out, Casali in

Post by ddraig » Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:05 pm

I tend to agree with you, bjp. If it comes down to keeping TT or JK on the team, I see nothing that I'd invest in JK. AAA player at best right now. And if I had the option of Haniger, Haggarty, J-Rod, Winker, and Trammell, that's what I'd go with. Since Haggarty can also play 2B, that gives him an edge over Trammell if one must go. JK has shown nothing special and I can't understand all the hype.

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Coeurd’Alene J
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Re: Torrens out, Casali in

Post by Coeurd’Alene J » Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:36 pm

bpj wrote:
Fri Aug 12, 2022 4:53 pm
Am I alone in not seeing anything special from Kelenic? He doesn't appear to be an exceptional physical athlete, average for MLB standards I'd say.

It was never his numbers that made him stand out, so what was it?

When I think of a top prospect it's a guy thats doing better than the others in the team/league. Kelenic had the edge in age I'm assuming, but the numbers weren't eye opening relative to what his teammates did.

Never saw an inkling of anything special with Kelenic. Although Kelenic seemed a little "special" at times if you know what I mean. Smashing bats and all, kid's a headcase.

Pencil him in as the 4th OF, I'm all for that. Just stop handing him playing time for him to squander expecting results.

2024 is the soonest Kelenic should sniff T-Mobile again.



I think it has something to do with hype…..He never tore the cover off the ball at any level at least not at a sustainable rate.Hard to believe that a modern day GM like Jerry who considers himself to be the second coming of moneyball only better…..and he can’t see through the smoke and mirrors even after a full season…….

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ddraig
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Re: Torrens out, Casali in

Post by ddraig » Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:52 pm

And he actually offered the kid a real contract! Bet JK wished he had signed it instead of thinking he could do better.

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D-train
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Re: Torrens out, Casali in

Post by D-train » Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:58 pm

I have a theory as to why two guys that hit about the same in AAA don't hit the same in the Majors.

Both players have a .900 OPS in AAA.

For simplicity, both players see 50% breaking balls and 50% fastballs. Another assumption is the the minor breaking balls are mediocre at best.

Player A 1.000 OPS vs. fastballs and .800 OPS vs. breaking balls
Player B .900 OPS vs. both fastballs and breaking balls.

They both get promoted.
Player A falls to .900 vs. MLB fastballs but all the way down to .500 OPS vs. MLB breaking balls.
Player B also falls 100 points on fastballs to .800 OPS but only 100 points as well on MLB breaking balls.

So now Player A has a .700 OPS and player B has a .800 OPS.

But then MLB pitchers realize player A can't hit breaking balls and throw him breaking balls 75% of the time instead of just 50%.

So now his OPS falls to .75 x .500 + .25 x .900 = .600 vs. .800 for player B.

Player A is JK
Minor league OPS: .906
Major league OPS: .575

Player B is France:
Minor league OPS: .859
Major league OPS: .803
dt

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bpj
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Re: Torrens out, Casali in

Post by bpj » Fri Aug 12, 2022 8:44 pm

ddraig wrote:
Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:05 pm
I tend to agree with you, bjp. If it comes down to keeping TT or JK on the team, I see nothing that I'd invest in JK. AAA player at best right now. And if I had the option of Haniger, Haggarty, J-Rod, Winker, and Trammell, that's what I'd go with. Since Haggarty can also play 2B, that gives him an edge over Trammell if one must go. JK has shown nothing special and I can't understand all the hype.
I like it, I'd be trading off Winker, Marco and Flexen and replacing them with Aaron Judge and Carlos Rodon and a QO to Haniger and still having only a payroll the size of what we had a few years ago at $160M.

Trammell/Julio/Judge/Haggerty/Moore

The Mariners need a power hitter with power that translates to any park. Judge has that and then some.

It's a no-brainer, they should be on Judge like Joe Biden on a schoolgirl.

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D-train
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Re: Torrens out, Casali in

Post by D-train » Fri Aug 12, 2022 10:11 pm

bpj wrote:
Fri Aug 12, 2022 8:44 pm
ddraig wrote:
Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:05 pm
I tend to agree with you, bjp. If it comes down to keeping TT or JK on the team, I see nothing that I'd invest in JK. AAA player at best right now. And if I had the option of Haniger, Haggarty, J-Rod, Winker, and Trammell, that's what I'd go with. Since Haggarty can also play 2B, that gives him an edge over Trammell if one must go. JK has shown nothing special and I can't understand all the hype.
I like it, I'd be trading off Winker, Marco and Flexen and replacing them with Aaron Judge and Carlos Rodon and a QO to Haniger and still having only a payroll the size of what we had a few years ago at $160M.

Trammell/Julio/Judge/Haggerty/Moore

The Mariners need a power hitter with power that translates to any park. Judge has that and then some.

It's a no-brainer, they should be on Judge like Joe Biden on a schoolgirl.
Guessing if Jerry sniffed Judge like that it would be his last act on this planet. lol
dt

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D-train
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Re: Torrens out, Casali in

Post by D-train » Fri Aug 12, 2022 11:25 pm

D-train wrote:
Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:58 pm
I have a theory as to why two guys that hit about the same in AAA don't hit the same in the Majors.

Both players have a .900 OPS in AAA.

For simplicity, both players see 50% breaking balls and 50% fastballs. Another assumption is the the minor breaking balls are mediocre at best.

Player A 1.000 OPS vs. fastballs and .800 OPS vs. breaking balls
Player B .900 OPS vs. both fastballs and breaking balls.

They both get promoted.
Player A falls to .900 vs. MLB fastballs but all the way down to .500 OPS vs. MLB breaking balls.
Player B also falls 100 points on fastballs to .800 OPS but only 100 points as well on MLB breaking balls.

So now Player A has a .700 OPS and player B has a .800 OPS.

But then MLB pitchers realize player A can't hit breaking balls and throw him breaking balls 75% of the time instead of just 50%.

So now his OPS falls to .75 x .500 + .25 x .900 = .600 vs. .800 for player B.

Player A is JK
Minor league OPS: .906
Major league OPS: .575

Player B is France:
Minor league OPS: .859
Major league OPS: .803
Well ya Don't say.....
dt

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bpj
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Re: Torrens out, Casali in

Post by bpj » Sat Aug 13, 2022 8:28 am

D-train wrote:
Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:58 pm
I have a theory as to why two guys that hit about the same in AAA don't hit the same in the Majors.

Both players have a .900 OPS in AAA.

For simplicity, both players see 50% breaking balls and 50% fastballs. Another assumption is the the minor breaking balls are mediocre at best.

Player A 1.000 OPS vs. fastballs and .800 OPS vs. breaking balls
Player B .900 OPS vs. both fastballs and breaking balls.

They both get promoted.
Player A falls to .900 vs. MLB fastballs but all the way down to .500 OPS vs. MLB breaking balls.
Player B also falls 100 points on fastballs to .800 OPS but only 100 points as well on MLB breaking balls.

So now Player A has a .700 OPS and player B has a .800 OPS.

But then MLB pitchers realize player A can't hit breaking balls and throw him breaking balls 75% of the time instead of just 50%.

So now his OPS falls to .75 x .500 + .25 x .900 = .600 vs. .800 for player B.

Player A is JK
Minor league OPS: .906
Major league OPS: .575

Player B is France:
Minor league OPS: .859
Major league OPS: .803
Seems like a solid theory to me. Wonder how it correlates as you add more players to the study.

Perfectly reasonable that it's a good indicator of high batting average players at least.

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