Kirby to kick the Rangers to the curb G.T. 8/12/22

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D-train
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Re: Kirby to kick the Rangers to the curb G.T. 8/12/22

Post by D-train » Sat Aug 13, 2022 7:37 pm

Haggerty in the lineup but having the hitter with the highest OPS on the team hitting 9th is something.
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harmony
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Re: Kirby to kick the Rangers to the curb G.T. 8/12/22

Post by harmony » Sat Aug 13, 2022 7:42 pm

D-train wrote:
Sat Aug 13, 2022 7:37 pm
Haggerty in the lineup but having the hitter with the highest OPS on the team hitting 9th is something.
ZiPS, Steamer and FanGraphs project Sam Haggerty with rest-of-season wRC+ of 92, 98 and 95:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/sam-h ... osition=OF

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Re: Kirby to kick the Rangers to the curb G.T. 8/12/22

Post by D-train » Sat Aug 13, 2022 7:50 pm

That reminds me of your post on Sam from July 8th. Since July 8th, Sam has hit .344 with a .975 OPS and a 176 wRC. I am thankful SS and JD decided to continue to play him and don't make decisions based on ZiPS, Steamer and FanGraphs projections.
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harmony
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Re: Kirby to kick the Rangers to the curb G.T. 8/12/22

Post by harmony » Sat Aug 13, 2022 8:47 pm

D-train wrote:
Sat Aug 13, 2022 7:50 pm
That reminds me of your post on Sam from July 8th. Since July 8th, Sam has hit .344 with a .975 OPS and a 176 wRC. I am thankful SS and JD decided to continue to play him and don't make decisions based on ZiPS, Steamer and FanGraphs projections.

Sam h.JPG
That reminds me of winning on the slot machines.

ice99
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Re: Kirby to kick the Rangers to the curb G.T. 8/12/22

Post by ice99 » Sat Aug 13, 2022 9:28 pm

D-train wrote:
Sat Aug 13, 2022 7:50 pm
That reminds me of your post on Sam from July 8th. Since July 8th, Sam has hit .344 with a .975 OPS and a 176 wRC. I am thankful SS and JD decided to continue to play him and don't make decisions based on ZiPS, Steamer and FanGraphs projections.

Sam h.JPG
It's the right call against RHP.
.
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D-train
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Re: Kirby to kick the Rangers to the curb G.T. 8/12/22

Post by D-train » Sat Aug 13, 2022 9:30 pm

Wow, so .484/1.465 hitting Right handed. Fair to say he should play LF for Winker vs. Left starters.
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Re: Kirby to kick the Rangers to the curb G.T. 8/12/22

Post by harmony » Sat Aug 13, 2022 10:36 pm

D-train wrote:
Sat Aug 13, 2022 9:30 pm
Wow, so .484/1.465 hitting Right handed. Fair to say he should play LF for Winker vs. Left starters.
In 19 plate appearances this year hitting righthanded but a .224/.274/.310/.585 line in 63 plate appearances hitting righthanded last year.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play ... r=2021&t=b

Sam Haggerty deserves to be a fan favorite but temper your expectations.

As a point of reference, last year against lefthanders Jesse Winker posted a .177/.288/.284/.572 line in 118 plate appearances before posting a .255/.360/.459/.819 line in 114 plate appearances against lefthanders this year.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play ... r=2022&t=b

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Re: Kirby to kick the Rangers to the curb G.T. 8/12/22

Post by D-train » Sat Aug 13, 2022 11:00 pm

harmony wrote:
Sat Aug 13, 2022 10:36 pm
D-train wrote:
Sat Aug 13, 2022 9:30 pm
Wow, so .484/1.465 hitting Right handed. Fair to say he should play LF for Winker vs. Left starters.
In 19 plate appearances this year hitting righthanded but a .224/.274/.310/.585 line in 63 plate appearances hitting righthanded last year.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play ... r=2021&t=b

Sam Haggerty deserves to be a fan favorite but temper your expectations.

As a point of reference, last year against lefthanders Jesse Winker posted a .177/.288/.284/.572 line in 118 plate appearances before posting a .255/.360/.459/.819 line in 114 plate appearances against lefthanders this year.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play ... r=2022&t=b
I don't need to temper anything. I am a Seattle Sports fan. I am immune to disappointment. :)
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Re: Kirby to kick the Rangers to the curb G.T. 8/12/22

Post by bpj » Sun Aug 14, 2022 2:33 am

Wonder how accurate "the projections" have been so far.. at quick glance they got close on most of the obvious good players and pinned the tail on the donkey picking the rest of their numbers.

Projections are absolute rubbish. They rely on enough of their single player projections being wrong on the up or down side that their team projections average out as close to the actual record as possible then the closest group of dorks can claim victory even though it's all bogus.

For example:

If I project a total of 4.9 wins for three players (Steamer) France, Kelenic and Moore and my projections break down like the following:

3.0 WAR for France
1.6 for Kelenic
0.3 for Moore

and they finish with:

3.0 WAR France
-0.5 for Kelenic
2.0 for Moore

Well, my overall projection was pretty close when in reality I was a giant dickhead throwing darts at a board to get there.

That's how projections work. It's hogwash.
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harmony
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Re: Kirby to kick the Rangers to the curb G.T. 8/12/22

Post by harmony » Sun Aug 14, 2022 3:00 pm

The science denier lacks a rudimentary understanding of statistics.

If done well baseball projections are wrong 40 percent of the time.

It's the 60 percent right that provides the advantage.

Note the noisy ding-ding-ding in the slot machine area of a casino. That casino is paying out ... in essence losing at that specific moment on those precise machines.

But is the casino losing money on slot machines? Of course not.

Don't be confused by ding-ding-ding of Sam Haggerty's hot streak. Haggerty has been fun to watch augmenting a Seattle outfield depleted by injuries to Mitch Haniger, Julio Rodriguez, Jesse Winker and Kyle Lewis. The 28-year-old Haggerty -- who entered this season with a career OPS+ of 64 in 59 games -- deserves our accolades. Love the (positive) outlier.

At the end of the season (if not before) the publicly available projections systems will compare each other's accuracy. In an MLB front office, non-player personnel decisions may hinge on the accuracy of that team's internal projections. These are not your grandfather's baseball operations.

Analytics run industries and baseball was a relative latecomer to the game.

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