Time to KIRB(Y) our lousy offense G.T 9/22/22

ice99
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Re: Time to KIRB(Y) our lousy offense G.T 9/22/22

Post by ice99 » Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:53 pm

I don't know about next year, but for this year, the lineup should be different.

There are lineup simulators that do random offensive production based upon the player's OBP and SLG. They run random 9 inning games with probabilities based upon the slugging and on-base percantages. Using the stats against RHP, the top 14 lineups for run production have JP at leadoff and JRod batting 2nd.

The top one has the lineup:
JP
JRod
Haniger
France
Geno
Sanatana
Frazier
Cal
Winker

I suspect SS would never bat Winker 9th but I could see Frazier batting 9th and Winker batting 7th.

Seattle or Bust
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Re: Time to KIRB(Y) our lousy offense G.T 9/22/22

Post by Seattle or Bust » Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:04 pm

D-train wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:31 am
bpj wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:03 am
Pharmabro wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:18 am


I agree but Ty is one of our top 4 hitters. And probaly #2.
Yeah, he's one of our better bats that shouldn't be run out of the lineup.

But they don't need to plant him at 1B like he's got roots. Today being a good example. Put him wherever you need to to get an extra bat in the lineup.

If you can't afford (or don't want to) a $300M middle infielder with an .840 OPS then move Ty to second (or utility) and sign another 1B for $18M that can add the .840 OPS bat to the lineup. Then add another one at DH and all of a sudden we have a great lineup to match the rotation.

Ty at 1B- when he can play around the diamond- is just keeping another bat from being added to the lineup (on a budget).

I don't care what they spend. I hope they take the payroll to $200M. But if they don't, it doesn't get any easier/cheaper than adding a 1B, and they shouldn't let Ty get in the way of that if it comes down to it.

They want versatility from everybody but Ty France apparently... Put him to use.
Ty to 2B would mean you could add BOTH Abreu and Bell for DH and 1B and keep Captain dreds happy at SS. Trade for Reynolds and you are done with the lineup and Old man Big Ugly Stanton can keep most of his shekels......

Julio
France
Reynolds
Geno
Bell
Abreu
Cal
JK
JP
He's now 17th out of 21 qualified SS's in WAR.

10x SS's have doubled JP's WAR total.

In 2023 he will be the 9th highest paid SS in baseball.

Elvis Andrus is a full 1 WAR better than Captain in his age 34 season.

Captain 97
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Re: Time to KIRB(Y) our lousy offense G.T 9/22/22

Post by Captain 97 » Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:06 pm

D-train wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:45 pm
ice99 wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:10 pm
Abreu will be 36 next season, I'll pass.
Santana is also 36 yo. Not really old for a DH. Edgar had a 164 OPS+ at age 29 and a 160 OPS+ at age 38.
I am on the fence with Abreau. His stats are really weird this year. His power is gone but he is hitting .308. It's like he turned into Ichiro. I really wouldn't want him manning a power position like DH or 1B if he can't hit 30+ bombs anymore. The bonus is he can be had without a long term contract I think 2 years 40 Million with a third year option would be about market value on him.

ice99
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Re: Time to KIRB(Y) our lousy offense G.T 9/22/22

Post by ice99 » Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:09 pm

D-train wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:45 pm
ice99 wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:10 pm
Abreu will be 36 next season, I'll pass.
Santana is also 36 yo. Not really old for a DH. Edgar had a 164 OPS+ at age 29 and a 160 OPS+ at age 38.
If he wants a one year contract at Santana's AAV, sure, but he's probably seeking more. I'll pass.

Seattle or Bust
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Re: Time to KIRB(Y) our lousy offense G.T 9/22/22

Post by Seattle or Bust » Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:22 pm

Captain 97 wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:06 pm
D-train wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:45 pm
ice99 wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:10 pm
Abreu will be 36 next season, I'll pass.
Santana is also 36 yo. Not really old for a DH. Edgar had a 164 OPS+ at age 29 and a 160 OPS+ at age 38.
I am on the fence with Abreau. His stats are really weird this year. His power is gone but he is hitting .308. It's like he turned into Ichiro. I really wouldn't want him manning a power position like DH or 1B if he can't hit 30+ bombs anymore. The bonus is he can be had without a long term contract I think 2 years 40 Million with a third year option would be about market value on him.
I don't think the M's should be saying no to anyone who consistently hits for around an .850 OPS.

I just don't think Abreu is a good fit. He's far more than likely to re-sign with the White Sox.

If not, I see him more as a fit for the Astros. Gurriel has posted a .646 OPS this season and they could use a cheapish upgrade at the position.

ice99
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Re: Time to KIRB(Y) our lousy offense G.T 9/22/22

Post by ice99 » Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:28 pm

Captain 97 wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:06 pm
D-train wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:45 pm
ice99 wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:10 pm
Abreu will be 36 next season, I'll pass.
Santana is also 36 yo. Not really old for a DH. Edgar had a 164 OPS+ at age 29 and a 160 OPS+ at age 38.
I am on the fence with Abreau. His stats are really weird this year. His power is gone but he is hitting .308. It's like he turned into Ichiro. I really wouldn't want him manning a power position like DH or 1B if he can't hit 30+ bombs anymore. The bonus is he can be had without a long term contract I think 2 years 40 Million with a third year option would be about market value on him.
Too much money to be tied up on 36 yo Abreu, imo.

ice99
Posts: 3148
Joined: Wed May 01, 2019 4:49 am

Re: Time to KIRB(Y) our lousy offense G.T 9/22/22

Post by ice99 » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:09 pm

ice99 wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:53 pm
I don't know about next year, but for this year, the lineup should be different.

There are lineup simulators that do random offensive production based upon the player's OBP and SLG. They run random 9 inning games with probabilities based upon the slugging and on-base percantages. Using the stats against RHP, the top 14 lineups for run production have JP at leadoff and JRod batting 2nd.

The top one has the lineup:
JP
JRod
Haniger
France
Geno
Sanatana
Frazier
Cal
Winker

I suspect SS would never bat Winker 9th but I could see Frazier batting 9th and Winker batting 7th.
The analytics people say that the 3rd place in the batting order needs a good hitter, but the 2nd and 4th hitter should be better. It's strange, but it does follow the results.

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bpj
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Re: Time to KIRB(Y) our lousy offense G.T 9/22/22

Post by bpj » Fri Sep 23, 2022 7:39 pm

ice99 wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:28 pm
Captain 97 wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:06 pm
D-train wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:45 pm


Santana is also 36 yo. Not really old for a DH. Edgar had a 164 OPS+ at age 29 and a 160 OPS+ at age 38.
I am on the fence with Abreau. His stats are really weird this year. His power is gone but he is hitting .308. It's like he turned into Ichiro. I really wouldn't want him manning a power position like DH or 1B if he can't hit 30+ bombs anymore. The bonus is he can be had without a long term contract I think 2 years 40 Million with a third year option would be about market value on him.
Too much money to be tied up on 36 yo Abreu, imo.
They could add Abreu for the dollars they save from getting rid of Marco and Flexen.

They've been penny pinching for years now.

On a one or two year contract, it shouldn't be a hindrance to any other signings.

They could fix this lineup pretty cheap even adding two mid-size contracts, doesn't need to be Abreu.

Adding Josh Bell, Bryan Reynolds, Carlos Rodon and Christian Walker would hardly raise our current payroll.

Walker and Bell are basically like adding another 2 Ty Frances to the lineup.

Reynolds LF
Julio CF
Suarez 3B
Bell 1B
France 2B
Walker DH
Raleigh/Murphy C
Kelenic/Lewis RF
Crawford SS

UTIL
Moore/Haggerty/Lewis

Castillo
Rodon
Gilbert
Ray
Kirby

That's a division contender, especially with our bullpen. There aren't many true impact bats available outside of Judge, but the above lineup is incredibly deep with plenty of everything.

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D-train
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Re: Time to KIRB(Y) our lousy offense G.T 9/22/22

Post by D-train » Fri Sep 23, 2022 7:51 pm

bpj wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 7:39 pm
ice99 wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:28 pm
Captain 97 wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:06 pm


I am on the fence with Abreau. His stats are really weird this year. His power is gone but he is hitting .308. It's like he turned into Ichiro. I really wouldn't want him manning a power position like DH or 1B if he can't hit 30+ bombs anymore. The bonus is he can be had without a long term contract I think 2 years 40 Million with a third year option would be about market value on him.
Too much money to be tied up on 36 yo Abreu, imo.
They could add Abreu for the dollars they save from getting rid of Marco and Flexen.

They've been penny pinching for years now.

On a one or two year contract, it shouldn't be a hindrance to any other signings.

They could fix this lineup pretty cheap even adding two mid-size contracts, doesn't need to be Abreu.

Adding Josh Bell, Bryan Reynolds, Carlos Rodon and Christian Walker would hardly raise our current payroll.

Walker and Bell are basically like adding another 2 Ty Frances to the lineup.

Reynolds LF
Julio CF
Suarez 3B
Bell 1B
France 2B
Walker DH
Raleigh/Murphy C
Kelenic/Lewis RF
Crawford SS

UTIL
Moore/Haggerty/Lewis

Castillo
Rodon
Gilbert
Ray
Kirby

That's a division contender, especially with our bullpen. There aren't many true impact bats available outside of Judge, but the above lineup is incredibly deep with plenty of everything.
All looks good but Lewis is hitting .246 in AAA. I have completely written him off.
dt

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Donn Beach
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Re: Time to KIRB(Y) our lousy offense G.T 9/22/22

Post by Donn Beach » Fri Sep 23, 2022 7:53 pm

Doubt you're getting Abreau on a one or two year contract. He has put up over four WAR this season. Not getting him away from the white Sox as easy as that

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