My Off Season Plan
Posted: Sun Oct 16, 2022 10:14 pm
Trade #1: Mariners send JP Crawford, Jarred Kelenic, Diego Castillo, and Cash to the White Sox for SS Tim Anderson and P Jake Diekman.
Why M's? Crawford was among the worst SS's in baseball for 5/6th's of 2022 season. He had a Ruthian type April for the M's but followed his usual trend where he goes on a tear for exactly one month and is mediocre to horrible for the other months. Crawford's D also regressed in '22, making him a liability at a position where most quality teams aren't lacking. Kelenic's name came up in many calls at the trade deadline and it's becoming clearer that he's just never going to develop as a Mariner. Yes, he's young... but he just went through ANOTHER 1 for 30 run and the M's are out of time. Castillo has never really found form as a Mariner, but he's a good reliever and again, a change of scenery might help. Anderson only has 1 year left of control but he would sure provide some impact at the position for the 1 year. Who knows, he might just sign an extension on arrival.
Why CWS? If they haven't paid Anderson now, it appears they're not going to. He's the face of their franchise and they've been hesitant to open up the checkbook for him... so? trade him. While Crawford struggled in '22, he's just 28 years old and joining a new organization w. new eyes on his swing could help him. He's a 3 WAR player when he's right and while he's not likely to ever become a star, he at least provides cheap stability at the position. The White Sox have one of the worst farm systems in baseball and are consistently thin in the OF... enter Kelenic who again, has to be intriguing as he's just 23 years old and the AAA numbers continue to be off the charts. It's a buy low on him that could work out in their favor. Castillo simply adds more depth to their bullpen. Diekman has been horrible with the White Sox, but he throws 96-98 from the left side and maybe the M's can work some magic.
Trade #2: Mariners send Taylor Dollard, Chris Flexen, Abraham Toro and Erik Swanson to the Twins for 2B Luis Arraez.
Why M's? The M's have Emerson Hancock closer to the bigs than Dollard and he projects as a higher ceiling starter. Flexen lost favor for some reason w. the M's front office and is due $8 million on a player option that was doubled by meeting inning requirements, they'll likely try to move on from him. Swanson is a great reliever, but you have to give up talent to get talent and the M's have a couple arms on the horizon that can slot into his role as more of a 5th-7th inning reliever. They just need to move on from Toro. Arraez put up 4 WAR this season for the Twins. He is one of the better contact and OBP guys in baseball sporting a career .314/.374/.410/.784 OPS. He would answer a serious question at the lead off position. If the M's are gonna trade some relievers, they have to get some back.
Why MN? Twins pitching finished 19th in ERA and were extremely top heavy. They had 3x starters who sported ERA's above 4.50. They also had multiple back end relievers who logged at least 30 innings of work with ERA's above 4.50. They have some of the worst farm system depth when it comes to pitching baseball. Dollard gives them a guy who could slot in their rotation by the middle of 2023. Flexen has an ERA around 3.80 in his last 2 seasons with the Mariners and he would slot in as a back end rotation guy that beats their current options. Swanson adds depth to a bullpen that really needs it. One might think that with Correa leaving that the Twins would be reluctant to trade another middle infielder. However, their top 2 prospects are shortstops and both are either MLB ready or right there. Not to mention Nick Gordon, a former top prospect and infielder, that they slotted in the outfield for now. Trading Arraez would hurt a bit, but it also would open up spaces for their young talent to work.
Free Agent Acquisition #1: Aaron Judge OF, 8 years, $280 million
Why? I'm not sure what I really need to explain here. The M's are missing a power bat in the middle of their lineup in the absolute worst of ways. He is the best power bat in baseball and he's the only player in baseball capable of hanging homer numbers from the steroid era. Not only that, but he has a career .284 batting average and career .394 OBP... elite, elite, elite. Want more? He's also happens to be a stellar defender. 2022 stats: .311/.425/.686/1.111. Oh... and 62 homers.
People are worried that he'll regress as he ages... who cares if the M's have won a couple World Series by the time he's 36/37? I don't. I also think those worries are premature... he's a stellar athlete who doesn't look like he's gonna have fat man regression in him (Pujols, Cabrera...). Go get him.
Free Agent Acquisition #2: Joc Pederson DH, 2 years, $30 million.
Why? The M's need a DH. They need a lefty power bat. Pederson quietly put up one of the better seasons from a lefty hitter last season. He slashed .274/.353/.521/.874 with 23 dingers. Some notes: Pederson slashed for a 1.127 OPS in April, 1.036 OPS in August, and .967 September. If it weren't for .421 OPS July, he would have slashed somewhere around a .950 OPS for the year... again, elite, elite, elite
. He's one of the quieter, quality hitters in baseball and it seems the Dodgers made a premature move getting rid of him after a bad 2020 Covid year.
Free Agent Acquisition #3: Some Reliever... Michael Fulmer, Matt Moore, Rafael Montero, Craig Kimbrel?
Why? Trade away some bullpen talent to get Anderson and Arraez... have to make it up.
The Lineup:
1. Luis Arraez 2B
2. Tim Anderson SS
3. Julio Rodriguez CF
4. Aaron Judge RF
5. Joc Pederson DH
6. Ty France 1B
7. Eugenio Suarez 3B
8. Cal Raleigh C
9. Jesse Winker/Sam Haggerty LF
Bench: Dylan Moore Util, Tom Murphy C and either: Taylor Trammell or Cade Marlow OF
The Staff:
1. Luis Castillo
2. Logan Gilbert
3. George Kirby
4. Robbie Ray
5. Emerson Hancock/Marco Gonzales
Bullpen:
9th: Andres Munoz
8th: Matt Brash, Paul Sewald, F/A Signing
7th: Casey Sadler, Penn Murfee, Matt Festa, Matt Boyd, Jake Diekman
Why M's? Crawford was among the worst SS's in baseball for 5/6th's of 2022 season. He had a Ruthian type April for the M's but followed his usual trend where he goes on a tear for exactly one month and is mediocre to horrible for the other months. Crawford's D also regressed in '22, making him a liability at a position where most quality teams aren't lacking. Kelenic's name came up in many calls at the trade deadline and it's becoming clearer that he's just never going to develop as a Mariner. Yes, he's young... but he just went through ANOTHER 1 for 30 run and the M's are out of time. Castillo has never really found form as a Mariner, but he's a good reliever and again, a change of scenery might help. Anderson only has 1 year left of control but he would sure provide some impact at the position for the 1 year. Who knows, he might just sign an extension on arrival.
Why CWS? If they haven't paid Anderson now, it appears they're not going to. He's the face of their franchise and they've been hesitant to open up the checkbook for him... so? trade him. While Crawford struggled in '22, he's just 28 years old and joining a new organization w. new eyes on his swing could help him. He's a 3 WAR player when he's right and while he's not likely to ever become a star, he at least provides cheap stability at the position. The White Sox have one of the worst farm systems in baseball and are consistently thin in the OF... enter Kelenic who again, has to be intriguing as he's just 23 years old and the AAA numbers continue to be off the charts. It's a buy low on him that could work out in their favor. Castillo simply adds more depth to their bullpen. Diekman has been horrible with the White Sox, but he throws 96-98 from the left side and maybe the M's can work some magic.
Trade #2: Mariners send Taylor Dollard, Chris Flexen, Abraham Toro and Erik Swanson to the Twins for 2B Luis Arraez.
Why M's? The M's have Emerson Hancock closer to the bigs than Dollard and he projects as a higher ceiling starter. Flexen lost favor for some reason w. the M's front office and is due $8 million on a player option that was doubled by meeting inning requirements, they'll likely try to move on from him. Swanson is a great reliever, but you have to give up talent to get talent and the M's have a couple arms on the horizon that can slot into his role as more of a 5th-7th inning reliever. They just need to move on from Toro. Arraez put up 4 WAR this season for the Twins. He is one of the better contact and OBP guys in baseball sporting a career .314/.374/.410/.784 OPS. He would answer a serious question at the lead off position. If the M's are gonna trade some relievers, they have to get some back.
Why MN? Twins pitching finished 19th in ERA and were extremely top heavy. They had 3x starters who sported ERA's above 4.50. They also had multiple back end relievers who logged at least 30 innings of work with ERA's above 4.50. They have some of the worst farm system depth when it comes to pitching baseball. Dollard gives them a guy who could slot in their rotation by the middle of 2023. Flexen has an ERA around 3.80 in his last 2 seasons with the Mariners and he would slot in as a back end rotation guy that beats their current options. Swanson adds depth to a bullpen that really needs it. One might think that with Correa leaving that the Twins would be reluctant to trade another middle infielder. However, their top 2 prospects are shortstops and both are either MLB ready or right there. Not to mention Nick Gordon, a former top prospect and infielder, that they slotted in the outfield for now. Trading Arraez would hurt a bit, but it also would open up spaces for their young talent to work.
Free Agent Acquisition #1: Aaron Judge OF, 8 years, $280 million
Why? I'm not sure what I really need to explain here. The M's are missing a power bat in the middle of their lineup in the absolute worst of ways. He is the best power bat in baseball and he's the only player in baseball capable of hanging homer numbers from the steroid era. Not only that, but he has a career .284 batting average and career .394 OBP... elite, elite, elite. Want more? He's also happens to be a stellar defender. 2022 stats: .311/.425/.686/1.111. Oh... and 62 homers.
People are worried that he'll regress as he ages... who cares if the M's have won a couple World Series by the time he's 36/37? I don't. I also think those worries are premature... he's a stellar athlete who doesn't look like he's gonna have fat man regression in him (Pujols, Cabrera...). Go get him. Free Agent Acquisition #2: Joc Pederson DH, 2 years, $30 million.
Why? The M's need a DH. They need a lefty power bat. Pederson quietly put up one of the better seasons from a lefty hitter last season. He slashed .274/.353/.521/.874 with 23 dingers. Some notes: Pederson slashed for a 1.127 OPS in April, 1.036 OPS in August, and .967 September. If it weren't for .421 OPS July, he would have slashed somewhere around a .950 OPS for the year... again, elite, elite, elite
. He's one of the quieter, quality hitters in baseball and it seems the Dodgers made a premature move getting rid of him after a bad 2020 Covid year. Free Agent Acquisition #3: Some Reliever... Michael Fulmer, Matt Moore, Rafael Montero, Craig Kimbrel?
Why? Trade away some bullpen talent to get Anderson and Arraez... have to make it up.
The Lineup:
1. Luis Arraez 2B
2. Tim Anderson SS
3. Julio Rodriguez CF
4. Aaron Judge RF
5. Joc Pederson DH
6. Ty France 1B
7. Eugenio Suarez 3B
8. Cal Raleigh C
9. Jesse Winker/Sam Haggerty LF
Bench: Dylan Moore Util, Tom Murphy C and either: Taylor Trammell or Cade Marlow OF
The Staff:
1. Luis Castillo
2. Logan Gilbert
3. George Kirby
4. Robbie Ray
5. Emerson Hancock/Marco Gonzales
Bullpen:
9th: Andres Munoz
8th: Matt Brash, Paul Sewald, F/A Signing
7th: Casey Sadler, Penn Murfee, Matt Festa, Matt Boyd, Jake Diekman