Top 15 FA contract predictions

[D-train]

The ones I would do in red

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/100 ... 2-23-class

Clayton Kershaw

Best Guess Projection: 1 year, $20 million

14. 1B José Abreu, Chicago White Sox

Best Guess Projection: 2 years, $34 million


13. RHP Chris Bassitt, New York Mets
Best Guess Projection: 3 years, $60 million


12. 1B Josh Bell, San Diego Padres

Best Guess Projection: 4 years, $64 million

11. C Willson Contreras, Chicago Cubs

Best Guess Projection: 4 years, $80 million


10. RHP Justin Verlander, Houston Astros

Best Guess Projection: 2 years, $88 million


9. CF Brandon Nimmo, New York Mets

Best Guess Projection: 5 years, $100 million


8. RHP Edwin Díaz, New York Mets

Best Guess Projection: 5 years, $100 million

7. LHP Carlos Rodón, San Francisco Giants

Best Guess Projection: 5 years, $120 million

6. RHP Jacob deGrom, New York Mets

Best Guess Projection: 3 years, $135 million

5. SS Dansby Swanson, Atlanta

Best Guess Projection: 6 years, $140 million

4. SS Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox

Best Guess Projection: 8 years, $240 million

3. SS Carlos Correa, Minnesota Twins

Best Guess Projection: 9 years, $270 million

2. SS Trea Turner, Los Angeles Dodgers

Best Guess Projection: 8 years, $272 million

1. RF Aaron Judge, New York Yankees

Best Guess Projection: 8 years, $300 million

[Captain 97]

I don't like Boegarts at all. He has a career OPS of .758 on the road and his OPS at T-Mobile is .718.

Turner looks a lot more attractive to me. He has a career OPS of .825 on the road. He has never played in Seattle but San Diego seems to be a similar to T-Mobile in the way it can affect hitters and he has a .931 OPS there.

[D-train]

Let's get real. None of the SSs are going to move to 2B and will likely move on to other options as soon as Jerry suggests such nonsense.

And if they say no initially what is Jerry going to say, ok hold on, JP is on an African Safari vacation and I can't reach him. I will ask him if he is willing to move for you when he gets back in a couple weeks and get back to you. lol

[ice99]

They still have a ways to go with defensive metrics, imo. They probably shouldn't use OAA for infielders. Dansby Swanson's OAA went from 3 to 20, while his UZR/150 went from 1.5 to 1.7, from 2021 to 2022. As someone once said, they should take the defensive metrics over 3 years.

These are the def stats for the SS, 2020-2022. Trea Turner played about 20% less innings at SS than JP, so increase his def by 20%.
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SSDef.PNG (16.15 KiB) Viewed 503 times

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CC hasn't hit in TMobile. I'd rather spend the money at other places than SS. COF like Nimmo, and maybe a trade for a 2B.

[bpj]

They still have a ways to go with defensive metrics, imo. They probably shouldn't use OAA for infielders. Dansby Swanson's OAA went from 3 to 20, while his UZR/150 went from 1.5 to 1.7, from 2021 to 2022. As someone once said, they should take the defensive metrics over 3 years.

These are the def stats for the SS, 2020-2022. Trea Turner played about 20% less innings at SS than JP, so increase his def by 20%.
.
SSDef.PNG
.
CC hasn't hit in TMobile. I'd rather spend the money at other places than SS. COF like Nimmo, and maybe a trade for a 2B.

Agreed ice.

Trea Turner has a career OPS of .842
Brandon Nimmo has a career OPS of .826

Turner is projected to get $272M compared to $100M for Nimmo.

It doesnt really matter to me what position they add the OPS at, they just need to do it, but it does make much more sense to start at the vacancies that don't cost a premium.

Just going off the list, they could add Brandon Nimmo (.826), Bell (.810) and still add Rodon for less than the cost of just Turner.

The shortstops really make no sense imo.

[ice99]

They still have a ways to go with defensive metrics, imo. They probably shouldn't use OAA for infielders. Dansby Swanson's OAA went from 3 to 20, while his UZR/150 went from 1.5 to 1.7, from 2021 to 2022. As someone once said, they should take the defensive metrics over 3 years.

These are the def stats for the SS, 2020-2022. Trea Turner played about 20% less innings at SS than JP, so increase his def by 20%.
.
SSDef.PNG
.
CC hasn't hit in TMobile. I'd rather spend the money at other places than SS. COF like Nimmo, and maybe a trade for a 2B.

Agreed ice.

Trea Turner has a career OPS of .842
Brandon Nimmo has a career OPS of .826

Turner is projected to get $272M compared to $100M for Nimmo.

It doesnt really matter to me what position they add the OPS at, they just need to do it, but it does make much more sense to start at the vacancies that don't cost a premium.

Just going off the list, they could add Brandon Nimmo (.826), Bell (.810) and still add Rodon for less than the cost of just Turner.

The shortstops really make no sense imo.

I like the Josh Bell suggestion. The shift ban will actually de-emphasize 3B and 1B defense, since they will no longer be alone on one side of the diamond. Which should open the door for France moving off of 1B, and someone like Josh Bell playing 1B.

With the M's major opponent being the Astros, the main lefty that will benefit from the shift ban is Alvarez. But a better second baseman has limited benefit, because it seemed to me that those outs were shift outs in short right field. I don't see this (short rf outs) happening with a shift ban, even with a good second baseman. In fact, if Suarez could play a shift SS, he'd probably have to do less as a non-shift 2B. Plus the high K/9 stats for the pitching staff that you gave out, would reduce the effect of a less than stellar 2B player.

[Sexymarinersfan]

Let's get real. None of the SSs are going to move to 2B and will likely move on to other options as soon as Jerry suggests such nonsense.

And if they say no initially what is Jerry going to say, ok hold on, JP is on an African Safari vacation and I can't reach him. I will ask him if he is willing to move for you when he gets back in a couple weeks and get back to you. lol

No. I imagine he'd ask, how much do you want to win? How badly is you playing shortstop imminent to you're career? How much money would it take for you to switch positions? Are u interested in playing here? If so, and are unwilling to change positions, how would you feel about displacing our current shortstop if he had to be forced to move to 2B? Are you conformable with that? I'd love to be a fly on the wall for those conversations.

By the way, the Athletic has us taking Bogarts out of the Top 4 shortstops in free agency. I'd post the article, but people get pissed when I do, so here's the link. Enjoy!

https://theathletic.com/3713969/2022/10 ... new-teams/

[ice99]

They still have a ways to go with defensive metrics, imo. They probably shouldn't use OAA for infielders. Dansby Swanson's OAA went from 3 to 20, while his UZR/150 went from 1.5 to 1.7, from 2021 to 2022. As someone once said, they should take the defensive metrics over 3 years.

These are the def stats for the SS, 2020-2022. Trea Turner played about 20% less innings at SS than JP, so increase his def by 20%.
.
SSDef.PNG
.
CC hasn't hit in TMobile. I'd rather spend the money at other places than SS. COF like Nimmo, and maybe a trade for a 2B.

Agreed ice.

Trea Turner has a career OPS of .842
Brandon Nimmo has a career OPS of .826

Turner is projected to get $272M compared to $100M for Nimmo.

It doesnt really matter to me what position they add the OPS at, they just need to do it, but it does make much more sense to start at the vacancies that don't cost a premium.

Just going off the list, they could add Brandon Nimmo (.826), Bell (.810) and still add Rodon for less than the cost of just Turner.

The shortstops really make no sense imo.

It's a no-brainer, $100M vs. $272M.

[bpj]

They still have a ways to go with defensive metrics, imo. They probably shouldn't use OAA for infielders. Dansby Swanson's OAA went from 3 to 20, while his UZR/150 went from 1.5 to 1.7, from 2021 to 2022. As someone once said, they should take the defensive metrics over 3 years.

These are the def stats for the SS, 2020-2022. Trea Turner played about 20% less innings at SS than JP, so increase his def by 20%.
.
SSDef.PNG
.
CC hasn't hit in TMobile. I'd rather spend the money at other places than SS. COF like Nimmo, and maybe a trade for a 2B.

Agreed ice.

Trea Turner has a career OPS of .842
Brandon Nimmo has a career OPS of .826

Turner is projected to get $272M compared to $100M for Nimmo.

It doesnt really matter to me what position they add the OPS at, they just need to do it, but it does make much more sense to start at the vacancies that don't cost a premium.

Just going off the list, they could add Brandon Nimmo (.826), Bell (.810) and still add Rodon for less than the cost of just Turner.

The shortstops really make no sense imo.

It's a no-brainer, $100M vs. $272M.

Which makes me think Dipoto will go after the SS...

[D-train]

Agreed ice.

Trea Turner has a career OPS of .842
Brandon Nimmo has a career OPS of .826

Turner is projected to get $272M compared to $100M for Nimmo.

It doesnt really matter to me what position they add the OPS at, they just need to do it, but it does make much more sense to start at the vacancies that don't cost a premium.

Just going off the list, they could add Brandon Nimmo (.826), Bell (.810) and still add Rodon for less than the cost of just Turner.

The shortstops really make no sense imo.

It's a no-brainer, $100M vs. $272M.

Which makes me think Dipoto will go after the SS...

Hey had even more payroll flexibility last offseason and his max deal was $125MM. I think he thinks like you for once this time.