Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

ice99
Posts: 3148
Joined: Wed May 01, 2019 4:49 am

Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by ice99 » Thu Jan 26, 2023 12:23 am

bpj wrote:
Thu Jan 26, 2023 12:11 am
ice99 wrote:
Wed Jan 25, 2023 11:50 pm
D-train wrote:
Wed Jan 25, 2023 9:14 pm
I wouldn't be surprised if a trade happens next off season....
But I was surprised when you thought they were going all in after the Teo trade.
I think many of us fell for it.

They told us for years they were just waiting dor the right time to complement this team in free agency.

Now the time has come and gone and we can mostly agree they were just pocketing the cash all along.
I wasn't surprised. It was pretty much given that they likely weren't going to spend $200+ million on a free agent.

User avatar
bpj
Posts: 12743
Joined: Mon Apr 29, 2019 12:55 am

Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by bpj » Thu Jan 26, 2023 12:33 am

ice99 wrote:
Thu Jan 26, 2023 12:23 am
bpj wrote:
Thu Jan 26, 2023 12:11 am
ice99 wrote:
Wed Jan 25, 2023 11:50 pm


But I was surprised when you thought they were going all in after the Teo trade.
I think many of us fell for it.

They told us for years they were just waiting dor the right time to complement this team in free agency.

Now the time has come and gone and we can mostly agree they were just pocketing the cash all along.
I wasn't surprised. It was pretty much given that they likely weren't going to spend $200+ million on a free agent.
Yeah, I agree with that. No reason they shouldn't have been in the Haniger/Josh Bell level market though when you have an OF and DH vacancies.

ice99
Posts: 3148
Joined: Wed May 01, 2019 4:49 am

Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by ice99 » Thu Jan 26, 2023 12:52 am

bpj wrote:
Thu Jan 26, 2023 12:33 am
ice99 wrote:
Thu Jan 26, 2023 12:23 am
bpj wrote:
Thu Jan 26, 2023 12:11 am


I think many of us fell for it.

They told us for years they were just waiting dor the right time to complement this team in free agency.

Now the time has come and gone and we can mostly agree they were just pocketing the cash all along.
I wasn't surprised. It was pretty much given that they likely weren't going to spend $200+ million on a free agent.
Yeah, I agree with that. No reason they shouldn't have been in the Haniger/Josh Bell level market though when you have an OF and DH vacancies.
Haniger or Josh Bell would have been a good pickup. I'm not sure what was the reason they didn't get one of them.

Pharmabro
Posts: 3750
Joined: Sun Nov 22, 2020 8:32 am

Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by Pharmabro » Thu Jan 26, 2023 3:03 am

Who knows? Maybe the Pirates GM Jack Z's them. Yes, B Reynolds we will trade for our picks of 4 of you top 10 plus your comp pick! OK deal done. OOPs we really meant to say those 5 plus our picks of 2/3 of your 1st round picks and any IFA in your system by July?

Who knows.

harmony
Posts: 1350
Joined: Thu May 02, 2019 4:59 pm
Location: Portland OR

Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by harmony » Thu Jan 26, 2023 3:37 am

Jerry Dipoto offers 40 minutes of explanations on Locked On Mariners podcast:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bblGcVXtlzs

User avatar
bpj
Posts: 12743
Joined: Mon Apr 29, 2019 12:55 am

Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by bpj » Thu Jan 26, 2023 7:43 am

harmony wrote:
Thu Jan 26, 2023 3:37 am
Jerry Dipoto offers 40 minutes of explanations on Locked On Mariners podcast:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bblGcVXtlzs
Good stuff, a couple points Jerry makes seem pretty deceptive imo.

1) He talks about how they've committed more in payroll than most teams to the future, $501M, but he doesn't mention that a large part of that obligation goes out to the year 2040 when most teams are spending on the next 5 years. He doesn't mention that they only have $83M committed in payroll at their supposed "crest" in 2026, and the collective bargaining payroll for that year is at only $99M while the luxury tax level is projected at $244M in 2026. That's $145M in payroll space, and that's what they're worried about? I call BS.

2) He talks about how they're among the top teams in Collective Bargaining 40 Man Payroll, but according to Cots they're ranked 18th in MLB at ~$180M in 2023, $53M below the tax threshold.

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/c ... tion/cots/
Screenshot_20230125_232958_DuckDuckGo.jpg

And he fails to mention that that obligation drops all the way to $115M in 2024, and tapers down to $62M by 2027.

Screenshot_20230125_233138_DuckDuckGo.jpg
Screenshot_20230125_233138_DuckDuckGo.jpg (94.14 KiB) Viewed 401 times
They're counting on people not actually looking into what he says.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/ ... view?pli=1

User avatar
D-train
Posts: 67960
Joined: Mon Apr 29, 2019 1:33 am
Location: Quincy, MA

Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by D-train » Thu Jan 26, 2023 11:59 am

ice99 wrote:
Wed Jan 25, 2023 11:50 pm
D-train wrote:
Wed Jan 25, 2023 9:14 pm
I wouldn't be surprised if a trade happens next off season....
But I was surprised when you thought they were going all in after the Teo trade.
All in? I liked the trade and expected more but this ownership group will never go all in.
dt

User avatar
seattlefan-daBronx
Posts: 12618
Joined: Wed May 01, 2019 9:37 pm

Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by seattlefan-daBronx » Thu Jan 26, 2023 8:25 pm

Jerry lives in the "we're a middle market club" world as explanation for everything.

I get the "we need to develop young talent" strategy on a consistant basis...but for a "middle of the market" club a world series opportunity comes maybe around once or twice every ten years with smart management and a some luck.

Yes. We are NOT the New York Yankees or Mets or LA teams. BUT after making the playoffs last year the offseason feels like they are hiding behind their "stock" excuses instead of seizing an opportunity to go for it. i.e. every team has a budget.

They are currently throwing low acquisition veteran players with some playoffs experience at the wall and seeing who will stick with the club during Spring Training with the hope that they will help hone the skills of younger players on the team.

Banking on JK or Taylor Trammell is not a winning strategy imho. He did leave open however the possibility of a trade(s) even during Spring Training while players are actually on the field.

At least he said we'll prefer a 5-man rotation with a traditional "swing man" or long relief pitcher. i.e. Flexen or Marco.
Jerry willing to live with the occasional Marco "clunker". Ha! :lol:
Pronouns: Kiss/My/Ass

User avatar
D-train
Posts: 67960
Joined: Mon Apr 29, 2019 1:33 am
Location: Quincy, MA

Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by D-train » Thu Jan 26, 2023 10:10 pm

If Marco is the 5th staring we are going have to endure more Polo than the entire history of the British Royal family...
dt

User avatar
Sexymarinersfan
Posts: 8302
Joined: Sat May 04, 2019 11:34 pm
Location: Ft. Worth Texas
Contact:

Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by Sexymarinersfan » Fri Jan 27, 2023 12:39 am

D-train wrote:
Thu Jan 26, 2023 10:10 pm
If Marco is the 5th staring we are going have to endure more Polo than the entire history of the British Royal family...
Wasn't Marco laboring through something last year? I know none of our starters hit the DL, but Marco hit a rough patch at the beginning of the season. If he sucks, I think you'll see a quick flip flop of him and Flexen. But right now, I'm willing to bet that the 5th spot is Marco's just based on seniority alone.

Post Reply