Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Seattle or Bust
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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by Seattle or Bust » Sat Nov 26, 2022 5:57 pm

D-train wrote:
Sat Nov 26, 2022 11:40 am
Here is the value of our top prospects. The top 5 only combine for 38.6 vs. Bryan Reynolds at almost 60. Maybe something can get done for him but this website strongly disagrees.

prospects.JPG
Trying to square this one up:

They have Angel's SS prospect Zach Neto, who is 21 years old and was drafted 13th overall in '22, worth $22.4 million.

They have M's SS prospect Cole Young, who is 19 years old and was drafted 21st overall in '22, worth $8.7 million.

Everything I've ever been told about organizations and prospects is that they want players in their system as early as possible so they can mold them with their player development. What is it that separates these two by $14 million in value?

Then you have Harry Ford who was drafted 12th overall in '21... he's hung an .878 OPS across his age 18/19 seasons. MLBTV gives him a value of just $11 million. Jasson Dominguez for the Yankees has an .804 OPS across his age 18/19 seasons playing at the exact same level as Ford, but is worth $26.5 million?

Not sure why they're so down on M's prospects...

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D-train
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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by D-train » Sat Nov 26, 2022 6:17 pm

Seattle or Bust wrote:
Sat Nov 26, 2022 5:57 pm
D-train wrote:
Sat Nov 26, 2022 11:40 am
Here is the value of our top prospects. The top 5 only combine for 38.6 vs. Bryan Reynolds at almost 60. Maybe something can get done for him but this website strongly disagrees.

prospects.JPG
Trying to square this one up:

They have Angel's SS prospect Zach Neto, who is 21 years old and was drafted 13th overall in '22, worth $22.4 million.

They have M's SS prospect Cole Young, who is 19 years old and was drafted 21st overall in '22, worth $8.7 million.

Everything I've ever been told about organizations and prospects is that they want players in their system as early as possible so they can mold them with their player development. What is it that separates these two by $14 million in value?

Then you have Harry Ford who was drafted 12th overall in '21... he's hung an .878 OPS across his age 18/19 seasons. MLBTV gives him a value of just $11 million. Jasson Dominguez for the Yankees has an .804 OPS across his age 18/19 seasons playing at the exact same level as Ford, but is worth $26.5 million?

Not sure why they're so down on M's prospects...
Yeah both Ford and Young seem very light.
dt

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D-train
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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by D-train » Sat Nov 26, 2022 6:18 pm

So how can you be enough of an M's fan to follow Sodomojo but so completely clueless to ask this question:
dt

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D-train
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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by D-train » Sat Nov 26, 2022 6:21 pm

Seattle or Bust wrote:
Sat Nov 26, 2022 5:57 pm
D-train wrote:
Sat Nov 26, 2022 11:40 am
Here is the value of our top prospects. The top 5 only combine for 38.6 vs. Bryan Reynolds at almost 60. Maybe something can get done for him but this website strongly disagrees.

prospects.JPG
Trying to square this one up:

They have Angel's SS prospect Zach Neto, who is 21 years old and was drafted 13th overall in '22, worth $22.4 million.

They have M's SS prospect Cole Young, who is 19 years old and was drafted 21st overall in '22, worth $8.7 million.

Everything I've ever been told about organizations and prospects is that they want players in their system as early as possible so they can mold them with their player development. What is it that separates these two by $14 million in value?

Then you have Harry Ford who was drafted 12th overall in '21... he's hung an .878 OPS across his age 18/19 seasons. MLBTV gives him a value of just $11 million. Jasson Dominguez for the Yankees has an .804 OPS across his age 18/19 seasons playing at the exact same level as Ford, but is worth $26.5 million?

Not sure why they're so down on M's prospects...
Would the Pirates accept two first round picks that got off to good starts for a 3 seasons of a guy that didn't even hit 3 WAR this past season. I think they should and would.
dt

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bpj
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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by bpj » Sat Nov 26, 2022 7:24 pm

So the 2021 MLB Top Prospect list had MacKenzie Gore as the 55th ranked prospect in MLB.

Emerson Hancock ranked in at #34, one spot behind George Kirby.

Hancock remained in the minors, Gore made his MLB debut and put up an underwhelming 4.50 ERA before becoming a major piece in a trade for 2.5 years of Juan Soto.

BaseballTradeValues currently has Gore worth 26.7 to Hancock's 6.6.

Mainly because he made his MLB debut from what I can tell.

I'm not saying the trade values site is trash, but... it's certainly not scientific.

Noelvi Marte+Emerson Hancock appears to be an equivalent package to what the Nationals got for Soto (CJ Abrams+Gore+). I wouldn't expect to pay more that that for Reynolds. Hancock+Ford or Young may be the equivalent now imo.

But if the Pirates want MLB ready talent, it's probably our pitching they'd be looking at.

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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by D-train » Sat Nov 26, 2022 7:49 pm

bpj wrote:
Sat Nov 26, 2022 7:24 pm
So the 2021 MLB Top Prospect list had MacKenzie Gore as the 55th ranked prospect in MLB.

Emerson Hancock ranked in at #34, one spot behind George Kirby.

Hancock remained in the minors, Gore made his MLB debut and put up an underwhelming 4.50 ERA before becoming a major piece in a trade for 2.5 years of Juan Soto.

BaseballTradeValues currently has Gore worth 26.7 to Hancock's 6.6.

Mainly because he made his MLB debut from what I can tell.

I'm not saying the trade values site is trash, but... it's certainly not scientific.

Noelvi Marte+Emerson Hancock appears to be an equivalent package to what the Nationals got for Soto (CJ Abrams+Gore+). I wouldn't expect to pay more that that for Reynolds. Hancock+Ford or Young may be the equivalent now imo.

But if the Pirates want MLB ready talent, it's probably our pitching they'd be looking at.
Yeah and Reynolds might be a bit high. If he puts up 3x3 = 9 WAR for the next three seasons that is $72M worth of WAR. He will prop make about $30M in arb for the three years so that is about $42M net. They must be projecting him at about 4 WAR a season.
dt

ice99
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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by ice99 » Sat Nov 26, 2022 8:22 pm

D-train wrote:
Sat Nov 26, 2022 7:49 pm
bpj wrote:
Sat Nov 26, 2022 7:24 pm
So the 2021 MLB Top Prospect list had MacKenzie Gore as the 55th ranked prospect in MLB.

Emerson Hancock ranked in at #34, one spot behind George Kirby.

Hancock remained in the minors, Gore made his MLB debut and put up an underwhelming 4.50 ERA before becoming a major piece in a trade for 2.5 years of Juan Soto.

BaseballTradeValues currently has Gore worth 26.7 to Hancock's 6.6.

Mainly because he made his MLB debut from what I can tell.

I'm not saying the trade values site is trash, but... it's certainly not scientific.

Noelvi Marte+Emerson Hancock appears to be an equivalent package to what the Nationals got for Soto (CJ Abrams+Gore+). I wouldn't expect to pay more that that for Reynolds. Hancock+Ford or Young may be the equivalent now imo.

But if the Pirates want MLB ready talent, it's probably our pitching they'd be looking at.
Yeah and Reynolds might be a bit high. If he puts up 3x3 = 9 WAR for the next three seasons that is $72M worth of WAR. He will prop make about $30M in arb for the three years so that is about $42M net. They must be projecting him at about 4 WAR a season.
Fangraphs projects Reynolds at 4.0 WAR.

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D-train
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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by D-train » Sat Nov 26, 2022 9:47 pm

Makes sense given BR had a down season. I think the Pirates will hold out for a top 50 prospect or 2 and we have none of those. I am not trading Logan or Kirby for him.
dt

GL_Storm
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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by GL_Storm » Sat Nov 26, 2022 10:17 pm

Maybe I'm just a homer that's overvaluing my own team's players, but it seems like a package of Hancock, Dollard, and JK should bring back Bryan Reynolds. If they don't want JK, you could swap out Trammell or Marlowe, or maybe even Jonatan Clase if that was their preference. Zach Deloach is another guy they could throw in. Though he's lost some prospect value, he's still a good bet as a sort of fringe major league type.

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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by D-train » Sat Nov 26, 2022 10:21 pm

GL_Storm wrote:
Sat Nov 26, 2022 10:17 pm
Maybe I'm just a homer that's overvaluing my own team's players, but it seems like a package of Hancock, Dollard, and JK should bring back Bryan Reynolds. If they don't want JK, you could swap out Trammell or Marlowe, or maybe even Jonatan Clase if that was their preference. Zach Deloach is another guy they could throw in. Though he's lost some prospect value, he's still a good bet as a sort of fringe major league type.
Yep you are being a homer. Would you be excited about that return if you were a Pirates fan? You yourself has doubted EH on many occasions, Dollard lacks velocity and I don't need to even spend another second of my life on JK.
dt

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