Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Pharmabro
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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by Pharmabro » Sat Jan 21, 2023 7:35 pm

D-train wrote:
Sat Jan 21, 2023 11:40 am
Pharmabro wrote:
Sat Jan 21, 2023 10:23 am
Donn Beach wrote:
Fri Jan 20, 2023 2:19 pm


He's the 3rd and 1st depth guy isn't he?
How in the hell do you figure Hummel is the 1st and 3rd bench guy?
Moore was a 122 OPS+ last year
Haggerty was a 116 OPS+

In the strange event that the catcher gets injured and you had Tom or Cal DHing that day you would only lose the DH for the rest of the game and not the rest of the season so maybe you have to pinch hit for a pitcher or not. Hummel can play catcher but he is like Torrens level first go around. Impotent back there. Murphy if he has recovered is a valued 1st man up off the bench with Seattle he has been a 110 OPS+ guy and he is a solid defender behind the plate. And most catchers play 2/3rds their games even Cal who was young and strong played 77% of the games he could have that is about 125 games based on a full season. I could see Murphy playing 40, 50, 60 games. That puts him as one of your most used couple of bench bats.

For comparison our lowest top 9 Haniger and Santana OF/DH had 294 and 253 PAs. Our two highest used benchies were Toro and Moore with 352 and
255 PAs
Last year Non-Cal catchers had 262 PAs.

I think having a versatile Hummel down in AAA in case of injury is important. Murphy is a FA in 2024 and I expect Ford even if he sticks on catcher will project to 24 at the earliest but probably more like 25.

Just my .02
Hummel had a higher OPS in the PCL than JK in 2022 yet some dopes think he should get 70% of Starts in LF. I agree that losing DH for part of a game shouldn't impact a roster spot by Jerry literally said that is what he loves about Hummel. That it allows him to DH the other catchers.
I get it. Hummel is a pretty good prospect, But that is what he is. The M’s have a number of opportunities to have break-out, or rebound performers. One or two of those really worked out last year: Bats Cal=breakout, Saurez=rebound, Haggerty =breakout, Moore=rebound, Julio = breakout

I see the roster and you have many of the same type of chances for rebound Pollock is 1 year removed from 2 in a row of 130’s OPS+ (Rebound), *La Stella was an .800 OPS from 2017 through 2020 over 300 games Rebound chance, potential breakouts: JK*, TT*, Marlow*, Hummel**.

Mix that with Moore and Haggerty who performed really well last year. Murphy was a 164 OPS+ before he was injured and 110 as a Mariner. Moore and Haggerty can play all over the IF, and OF.

I am pretty confident on Cal, France, Julio, Teo, JP, Saurez, Wong,
But last year I was hopeful Saurez could rebound but considered it part of the cost of getting Winker. Even if Saurez didn’t improve over the past few years he would still hit some dingers and be a Seager-like base sweeper. I was confident that Winker would come in and be our middle of the lineup lefty.
I see these guys as pasta in a boiling pot. None of these guys are Julio level projections. But they are chances for “sticking”. JD has said JK has been working on adjustments and they love what they see. Each one has more than a zero percent chance of being a positive player for the team.

I see Hummel as being a guy with a chance. He could have worked his ass off on getting better on defending at C, Murphy may not be ready to go. And Hummel has a Cal like breakout. I am leaning towards a nice MLB ready prospect depth piece. He probably plays at some point during the year.

Pharmabro
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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by Pharmabro » Sat Jan 21, 2023 8:06 pm

I forgot about Colin Moran 1B-3B DH

His best full season tally was a 105 OPS+
In 2020 in 51 games he had a 114 OPS+
He has a 99 OPS+ career

He is a lefty .274 .338 .434 .772 Career line vs RHP

He is a former 1st Rd. #6 draft pick.

He could be our pick-up of a guy like Justin Smoak.

In Seattle Smoak had a season of 106 OPS+, He had a 114OPS+ in Mariner blue as well. He was a 1st rounder #11 top 100 prospect. After he went to Toronto He would eventually put up a 131 38 HR year and followed that up with a 120 OPS+.

He is another guy that could help the MLB club. He could be the next Nola. Nola had a sub .700 OPS in the minors in 9 seasons goes to Tacoma and puts up a .900 + OPS and .800 OPS in Seattle and follows the next year with a .900 OPS in Seattle.

Unlikely, My thought is he is a guy that hopefully you can stash in Tacoma who you play every day down there. And if France or Saurez or even the DH gets banged up you bring up a guy who will be a pretty good bet to be an MLB average bat. Maybe he even comes in confident and driven and pops from a 10 game stretch .

I am really confident in 7 players to be starters: Cal, France, Wong, JP, Saurez, Teo, Julio

I am pretty confident in 3 bench players Moore, Murphy, Haggerty

Pollock, Moran, LaStella, JK, TT, Marlow, Hummel. They are paying Pollock like 7M or so and he is about a lock for 1 of the 3 spots available. If everyone is healthy you have about six guys going for the last 2 spots.

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D-train
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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by D-train » Sat Jan 21, 2023 8:37 pm

Pharmabro wrote:
Sat Jan 21, 2023 8:06 pm
I forgot about Colin Moran 1B-3B DH

His best full season tally was a 105 OPS+
In 2020 in 51 games he had a 114 OPS+
He has a 99 OPS+ career

He is a lefty .274 .338 .434 .772 Career line vs RHP

He is a former 1st Rd. #6 draft pick.

He could be our pick-up of a guy like Justin Smoak.

In Seattle Smoak had a season of 106 OPS+, He had a 114OPS+ in Mariner blue as well. He was a 1st rounder #11 top 100 prospect. After he went to Toronto He would eventually put up a 131 38 HR year and followed that up with a 120 OPS+.

He is another guy that could help the MLB club. He could be the next Nola. Nola had a sub .700 OPS in the minors in 9 seasons goes to Tacoma and puts up a .900 + OPS and .800 OPS in Seattle and follows the next year with a .900 OPS in Seattle.

Unlikely, My thought is he is a guy that hopefully you can stash in Tacoma who you play every day down there. And if France or Saurez or even the DH gets banged up you bring up a guy who will be a pretty good bet to be an MLB average bat. Maybe he even comes in confident and driven and pops from a 10 game stretch .

I am really confident in 7 players to be starters: Cal, France, Wong, JP, Saurez, Teo, Julio

I am pretty confident in 3 bench players Moore, Murphy, Haggerty

Pollock, Moran, LaStella, JK, TT, Marlow, Hummel. They are paying Pollock like 7M or so and he is about a lock for 1 of the 3 spots available. If everyone is healthy you have about six guys going for the last 2 spots.
Yeah I think he is a far better fit than La Stella but La Stella got the big league deal so will be on the roster over him.
dt

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desbcoach
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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by desbcoach » Sun Jan 22, 2023 1:11 am

Yeah I think he is a far better fit than La Stella but La Stella got the big league deal so will be on the roster over him.
[/quote]

But La Stella is one of easiest to cut or DFA if he looks poor in ST due to league min.

Pharmabro
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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by Pharmabro » Sun Jan 22, 2023 2:21 am

D-train wrote:
Sat Jan 21, 2023 11:40 am
Pharmabro wrote:
Sat Jan 21, 2023 10:23 am
Donn Beach wrote:
Fri Jan 20, 2023 2:19 pm


He's the 3rd and 1st depth guy isn't he?
How in the hell do you figure Hummel is the 1st and 3rd bench guy?
Moore was a 122 OPS+ last year
Haggerty was a 116 OPS+

In the strange event that the catcher gets injured and you had Tom or Cal DHing that day you would only lose the DH for the rest of the game and not the rest of the season so maybe you have to pinch hit for a pitcher or not. Hummel can play catcher but he is like Torrens level first go around. Impotent back there. Murphy if he has recovered is a valued 1st man up off the bench with Seattle he has been a 110 OPS+ guy and he is a solid defender behind the plate. And most catchers play 2/3rds their games even Cal who was young and strong played 77% of the games he could have that is about 125 games based on a full season. I could see Murphy playing 40, 50, 60 games. That puts him as one of your most used couple of bench bats.

For comparison our lowest top 9 Haniger and Santana OF/DH had 294 and 253 PAs. Our two highest used benchies were Toro and Moore with 352 and
255 PAs
Last year Non-Cal catchers had 262 PAs.

I think having a versatile Hummel down in AAA in case of injury is important. Murphy is a FA in 2024 and I expect Ford even if he sticks on catcher will project to 24 at the earliest but probably more like 25.

Just my .02
Hummel had a higher OPS in the PCL than JK in 2022 yet some dopes think he should get 70% of Starts in LF. I agree that losing DH for part of a game shouldn't impact a roster spot by Jerry literally said that is what he loves about Hummel. That it allows him to DH the other catchers.
I partially agree but to me it does not grant a path to the MLB roster for Hummel unless he contributes via his merit on the field and in the box. I agree because we are lefty needy. Cal as many catchers do got beat-up and is in the 2/3 rds to 80% range as far as % of full time every day BAs go. If Tom can Catch and throw down a 110 OPS+ and allow Cal to get 500 - 550 ABs vs 400 as basically only a catcher instead of a C/DH that really helps. But, how does Hummel stack up against the others for the last 5 or so spots? Who does he have more value vs"
Moore he plays everywhere spare catcher and does it well steals bags, and had a 122 OPS+ last year. NO
Pollock several million dollar contract and a year removed from 130 OPS+ for 2 years in a row. NO
Haggerty: Speed, outfield D, also can play infield, and a 116 OPS+ last year probably No
C Moran maybe
Lastella? He has a long stretch of an .800 OPS from 2017 to 2020 over 300 games Maybe
I'd put Hummel as even odds with JK, TT, Marlow, and Moran.

But, what do I know? Nothing more than you, or young Curtis.

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Coeurd’Alene J
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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by Coeurd’Alene J » Sun Jan 22, 2023 9:42 pm

File this under who gives a shit……..

We have to be the number 1 team in baseball with the most 1 yr deals

This could work out great when the baseball recession hits like it does every 4 years or so……..bullshit

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D-train
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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by D-train » Sun Jan 22, 2023 10:00 pm

Coeurd’Alene J wrote:
Sun Jan 22, 2023 9:42 pm
File this under who gives a shit……..

We have to be the number 1 team in baseball with the most 1 yr deals

This could work out great when the baseball recession hits like it does every 4 years or so……..bullshit
Fear not my brother the next FA class is amazing for 2B and RF and LF. I have heard that Frazier and Winker are especially awesome!
Second base: Adam Frazier, Jorge Polanco (club option), Whit Merrifield (mutual option), Jonathan Schoop, Kolten Wong


Outfield: Harrison Bader, Cody Bellinger, Charlie Blackmon, Michael Brantley, Mark Canha (club option), Michael Conforto (opt-out), Adam Duvall, Joey Gallo, Randal Grichuk, Ian Happ, Teoscar Hernández, Max Kepler (club option), Kevin Kiermaier, Andrew McCutchen, Wil Myers, Joc Pederson, Tommy Pham, AJ Pollock, Hunter Renfroe, Eddie Rosario (club option), Jorge Soler (opt-out), Michael A. Taylor, Jesse Winker
dt

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Coeurd’Alene J
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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by Coeurd’Alene J » Tue Jan 24, 2023 4:04 am

Arte withdrew the Angels sale and plans to keep it through 2023 and beyond……

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D-train
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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by D-train » Wed Jan 25, 2023 12:36 pm

The love affair that M's fans have with terrible baseball players is truly something to behold.
dt

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Donn Beach
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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by Donn Beach » Wed Jan 25, 2023 1:43 pm

Depressed mariners fan... isn't that sarcasm?

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