Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Big_Maple
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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by Big_Maple » Thu Dec 01, 2022 4:41 pm

D-train wrote:
Thu Dec 01, 2022 4:35 pm
How is it surprising that we're not going to sign any of the short stops? I've been saying that for weeks if not months
I know. I've been more or less thinking the same thing, but hoping I was wrong. I don't think JD's MO is to spend in FA. I think he prefers to trade (...ahem...Teoscar Hernandez). But I was hoping that someone with some sway would have persuaded Trader Jerry to aggressively go after at least one of them.

It seems arrogant to the point of hubris to not try to get one SS from free agency over the last 2 years - there has been such a glut of talent in this position that could easily and arguably make the M's a better team. But for some reason we are stuck with JP.

Seattle or Bust
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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by Seattle or Bust » Thu Dec 01, 2022 5:15 pm

Big_Maple wrote:
Thu Dec 01, 2022 4:41 pm
D-train wrote:
Thu Dec 01, 2022 4:35 pm
How is it surprising that we're not going to sign any of the short stops? I've been saying that for weeks if not months
I know. I've been more or less thinking the same thing, but hoping I was wrong. I don't think JD's MO is to spend in FA. I think he prefers to trade (...ahem...Teoscar Hernandez). But I was hoping that someone with some sway would have persuaded Trader Jerry to aggressively go after at least one of them.

It seems arrogant to the point of hubris to not try to get one SS from free agency over the last 2 years - there has been such a glut of talent in this position that could easily and arguably make the M's a better team. But for some reason we are stuck with JP.
Yes, but at what cost?

None of these SS's have true power bats. Playing at SafeCo... all of them will likely hit between 15-25 homers.

All of them have benefited from playing at hitter-friendly ballparks in their careers... Xander .872/.758, Dansby .773/.704, Correa .853/.821, Turner .860/.825. Because SafeCo is where right handed hitters go to die, you're basically looking at all 4 of these guys hitting for no more than an .800 OPS at home, made worse by the fact that none of these guys have plus power.

So you're going to pay guys to play ball into their age 36 to 38 seasons $30+ million a year to hit .280/.350/.400-.450 and play decent defense at the SS position? Seems like a horrible way to shell out money.

If you're going to pay a player $30 million AAV, they better be capable of shelling out 40 homers and be a major bopper in your lineup.

The last SS to get a contract like this was Franky Lindor. He enjoyed MASSIVE home vs away splits in Cleveland... basically a .900/.750 split. Welp, he goes to NYM where Citi Field which has been a bottom-5 ballpark to hit in over the past 3 seasons and was 3rd worst in '22 (SafeCo was 2nd worst)... He throws up a .733 home OPS in '20, .788 in '21, .754 in '22.

Big_Maple
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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by Big_Maple » Thu Dec 01, 2022 5:33 pm

Seattle or Bust wrote:
Thu Dec 01, 2022 5:15 pm
Yes, but at what cost?

None of these SS's have true power bats. Playing at SafeCo... all of them will likely hit between 15-25 homers.

All of them have benefited from playing at hitter-friendly ballparks in their careers... Xander .872/.758, Dansby .773/.704, Correa .853/.821, Turner .860/.825. Because SafeCo is where right handed hitters go to die, you're basically looking at all 4 of these guys hitting for no more than an .800 OPS at home, made worse by the fact that none of these guys have plus power.

So you're going to pay guys to play ball into their age 36 to 38 seasons $30+ million a year to hit .280/.350/.400-.450 and play decent defense at the SS position? Seems like a horrible way to shell out money.

If you're going to pay a player $30 million AAV, they better be capable of shelling out 40 homers and be a major bopper in your lineup.

The last SS to get a contract like this was Franky Lindor. He enjoyed MASSIVE home vs away splits in Cleveland... basically a .900/.750 split. Welp, he goes to NYM where Citi Field which has been a bottom-5 ballpark to hit in over the past 3 seasons and was 3rd worst in '22 (SafeCo was 2nd worst)... He throws up a .733 home OPS in '20, .788 in '21, .754 in '22.
These are all valid points, and far be it from me to argue with statistics. But what you say is going to apply to literally every FA we sign, or anyone we acquire through trade. If you are playing in a hitter-friendly park like Coors Field, your power and slash line will take a nose dive when you come to T-Mobile. And every player declines with age - so offering a lengthy contract to any player over, say, 28 is going to result in your getting your money's worth for the first 3 years, and then hoping to unload them the last X years. It just is what it is. Call it the contract of diminishing returns. But it's what you'll have to do to sign a proven FA looking for long term job security.

My point is this: we had 2 years of bumper crops of SS available. Apparently Jerry didn't go after any of them. So it comes down to this: were we a better team without any of those SS and JP and Frazier? Hard to tell without building a time machine, but I'd say we would have been better with JP at 2B, and likely any of the FA SS compared to what we went with. How much better and whether it would be worth the cost could be debated. But I would love to have had Corey Seager as our SS going forward.

The second question is whether any of the available SS out there right now would make us a better team for, say, the next 2 or 3 seasons. The answer is arguably yes. It would cost us, for sure, and every FA comes with a list of concerns as well as strengths. But if I were in the front office, I would be telling JD to make a hard and serious run for at least one of the SS. Armchair GMing is easy.

Finally, it remains to be seen what JD actually does with 2B/SS. Maybe he will pull of a world class trade, keep JP at SS, and manage to land a 2B that takes us to the holy land. In which case forget everything I said about not pursuing a FA SS... :oops:

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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by Seattle or Bust » Thu Dec 01, 2022 6:02 pm

Big_Maple wrote:
Thu Dec 01, 2022 5:33 pm
Seattle or Bust wrote:
Thu Dec 01, 2022 5:15 pm
Yes, but at what cost?

None of these SS's have true power bats. Playing at SafeCo... all of them will likely hit between 15-25 homers.

All of them have benefited from playing at hitter-friendly ballparks in their careers... Xander .872/.758, Dansby .773/.704, Correa .853/.821, Turner .860/.825. Because SafeCo is where right handed hitters go to die, you're basically looking at all 4 of these guys hitting for no more than an .800 OPS at home, made worse by the fact that none of these guys have plus power.

So you're going to pay guys to play ball into their age 36 to 38 seasons $30+ million a year to hit .280/.350/.400-.450 and play decent defense at the SS position? Seems like a horrible way to shell out money.

If you're going to pay a player $30 million AAV, they better be capable of shelling out 40 homers and be a major bopper in your lineup.

The last SS to get a contract like this was Franky Lindor. He enjoyed MASSIVE home vs away splits in Cleveland... basically a .900/.750 split. Welp, he goes to NYM where Citi Field which has been a bottom-5 ballpark to hit in over the past 3 seasons and was 3rd worst in '22 (SafeCo was 2nd worst)... He throws up a .733 home OPS in '20, .788 in '21, .754 in '22.
These are all valid points, and far be it from me to argue with statistics. But what you say is going to apply to literally every FA we sign, or anyone we acquire through trade. If you are playing in a hitter-friendly park like Coors Field, your power and slash line will take a nose dive when you come to T-Mobile. And every player declines with age - so offering a lengthy contract to any player over, say, 28 is going to result in your getting your money's worth for the first 3 years, and then hoping to unload them the last X years. It just is what it is. Call it the contract of diminishing returns. But it's what you'll have to do to sign a proven FA looking for long term job security.

My point is this: we had 2 years of bumper crops of SS available. Apparently Jerry didn't go after any of them. So it comes down to this: were we a better team without any of those SS and JP and Frazier? Hard to tell without building a time machine, but I'd say we would have been better with JP at 2B, and likely any of the FA SS compared to what we went with. How much better and whether it would be worth the cost could be debated. But I would love to have had Corey Seager as our SS going forward.

The second question is whether any of the available SS out there right now would make us a better team for, say, the next 2 or 3 seasons. The answer is arguably yes. It would cost us, for sure, and every FA comes with a list of concerns as well as strengths. But if I were in the front office, I would be telling JD to make a hard and serious run for at least one of the SS. Armchair GMing is easy.

Finally, it remains to be seen what JD actually does with 2B/SS. Maybe he will pull of a world class trade, keep JP at SS, and manage to land a 2B that takes us to the holy land. In which case forget everything I said about not pursuing a FA SS... :oops:
Well not necessarily.

You pick players who aren't totally reliant on playing at hitter-friendly ballparks for their numbers to be inflated. Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz are really good examples... guys who had very similar home/road splits through out their careers and coincidentally hit really well at SafeCo.

Brandon Lowe has a .827/.834 split.

I'd much rather trade for Lowe than shell out 8+ years of $30 million to a SS... he'll put up similar if not better numbers than the SS's w. the bat and he'll cost you far less.

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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by GL_Storm » Thu Dec 01, 2022 6:16 pm

Why is it so hard to understand that Jerry DiPoto doesn't want to invest payroll in an elite free agent shortstop? That's why he's paying JP instead. He'd rather stabilize that position with a moderate overpay for JP than do a massive overpay for a very good-not-great player that happens to play shortstop, like any of the 4SS.

He's choosing not to pursue those players. It's a choice. At a very basic and fundamental level, he simply does not value those players at the level that baseball media is projecting as "market value".

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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by Seattle or Bust » Thu Dec 01, 2022 6:18 pm

GL_Storm wrote:
Thu Dec 01, 2022 6:16 pm
Why is it so hard to understand that Jerry DiPoto doesn't want to invest payroll in an elite free agent shortstop? That's why he's paying JP instead. He'd rather stabilize that position with a moderate overpay for JP than do a massive overpay for a very good-not-great player that happens to play shortstop, like any of the 4SS.

He's choosing not to pursue those players. It's a choice. At a very basic and fundamental level, he simply does not value those players at the level that baseball media is projecting as "market value".
Ya, and I agree with his decision... so long as he augments the lineup with major bats in other positions.

If he's not going to pay the SS's... he better get some all-world bats at 2B and LF.

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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by Big_Maple » Thu Dec 01, 2022 6:23 pm

Seattle or Bust wrote:
Thu Dec 01, 2022 6:02 pm
Well not necessarily.

You pick players who aren't totally reliant on playing at hitter-friendly ballparks for their numbers to be inflated. Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz are really good examples... guys who had very similar home/road splits through out their careers and coincidentally hit really well at SafeCo.

Brandon Lowe has a .827/.834 split.

I'd much rather trade for Lowe than shell out 8+ years of $30 million to a SS... he'll put up similar if not better numbers than the SS's w. the bat and he'll cost you far less.
Fair enough, But Lowe is not a FA. Per the last paragraph of my last post, maybe trader Jerry will pull off a sweet trade for a legit 2B in which case this all may be moot.

But that will cost us elsewhere. Many on this board have already lamented the depleted farm system, and it will likely take a lot to pry him away from the Rays.

And, per this article, Lowe is not without risk: "Lowe dealt with various injuries in 2022 and only got into 65 games on the season, with diminished production when he was on the field. After hitting .247/.340/.523 for a wRC+ of 137 last year, he slipped to .221/.308/.383 this year, still above average but a much lower 104 wRC+."

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/ ... seman.html

So yeah - there's upsides and downsides to everything. Lowe would like be a good "get" through trade. And it again comes down to whether 3 years of Lowe would be better than options B,C or X,Y,Z involving a stud SS from FA.

I dunno. That's why I putter around here offering my opinion for free, while Dipoto has a cadre of guys sitting in a windowless room, crunching numbers, wearing taped-up, horn rimmed glasses making money to do the same thing...just better. I keep reminding myself that opinions are like assholes. Everyone's got one. :D Wha do I know...

Big_Maple
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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by Big_Maple » Thu Dec 01, 2022 6:26 pm

Seattle or Bust wrote:
Thu Dec 01, 2022 6:18 pm
Ya, and I agree with his decision... so long as he augments the lineup with major bats in other positions.

If he's not going to pay the SS's... he better get some all-world bats at 2B and LF.
Yes and yes. But from what I read, he's not doing that either. He's pulling a classic Jerry, digging through the scrapheap hoping to find a has-been that he can duct tape back to all-star form for a fraction of the cost.

Ignore me. I'm bitter because nothing is happening right now. I'm sure JD will pull out a miracle, blockbuster trade that I would happily admit proves my cynicism all for naught.

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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by GL_Storm » Thu Dec 01, 2022 6:43 pm

Seattle or Bust wrote:
Thu Dec 01, 2022 6:18 pm
GL_Storm wrote:
Thu Dec 01, 2022 6:16 pm
Why is it so hard to understand that Jerry DiPoto doesn't want to invest payroll in an elite free agent shortstop? That's why he's paying JP instead. He'd rather stabilize that position with a moderate overpay for JP than do a massive overpay for a very good-not-great player that happens to play shortstop, like any of the 4SS.

He's choosing not to pursue those players. It's a choice. At a very basic and fundamental level, he simply does not value those players at the level that baseball media is projecting as "market value".
Ya, and I agree with his decision... so long as he augments the lineup with major bats in other positions.

If he's not going to pay the SS's... he better get some all-world bats at 2B and LF.
This is why it's frustrating he's letting Mitch go. Julio + Teoscar + Mitch is potentially a great outfield. With those three starting, and if everyone stays healthy, that's a hell of a lot of offense with JK, TayTram, Cade Marlowe as your depth. And Winker too, at least for now or until he gets traded.

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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

Post by Sexymarinersfan » Thu Dec 01, 2022 6:43 pm

Big_Maple wrote:
Thu Dec 01, 2022 2:39 pm
Here's an interesting article (interesting in the sense that the hot stove has been icy cold, and so I am feeding myself a steady diet of speculation rather than actual transactions).

A dozen executives and "MLB insiders" were polled about a variety of offseason topics. I'll let you all read the article if you're interested (I don't think there's a paywall) - but what jumped out at me is that none of the 4 top tier SS were projected to be snatched up by the M's. In fact, the Mariners weren't listed by any of the insiders, at all, on any of the questions asked.

Something else that caught my attention was that a couple of insiders speculated that the most notable player to be traded this offseason would be Bryan Reynolds. Do not abandon hope, y'all! Then again, another speculated Frenando Tatis Jr. would be the most notable, so ... meh.

It's not much, but maybe this will help tide you over till the winter meetings next week!

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/35139041
There are too many other teams that are willing to outbid us for one of the Big 4 to come here. Here's just a few.

Phillies are said to be getting a shortstop. No doubt about it. One Insider said they are walking away with one no matter what. The Twins have multiple multiple offers already out on the table for Carpos Correa. When Judge returns to NY, it is said that Zaidi in SF will open the checkbook and leave nothing on the table in acquiring one. Atlanta still wants Dansby to return. The Dodgers have an opening, as well as Boston. I've heard that the Cubs are ready to spend some serious coin as well. So I've actually given up on getting one of the shortstops, even though it makes complete sense.

I feel like Dipoto is acquiring 1 and 2-year band-aids until the young prospects are ready to be called up and then sign a hometown discount if they're good or not.

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