Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

[GL_Storm]

Here's an interesting article (interesting in the sense that the hot stove has been icy cold, and so I am feeding myself a steady diet of speculation rather than actual transactions).

A dozen executives and "MLB insiders" were polled about a variety of offseason topics. I'll let you all read the article if you're interested (I don't think there's a paywall) - but what jumped out at me is that none of the 4 top tier SS were projected to be snatched up by the M's. In fact, the Mariners weren't listed by any of the insiders, at all, on any of the questions asked.

Something else that caught my attention was that a couple of insiders speculated that the most notable player to be traded this offseason would be Bryan Reynolds. Do not abandon hope, y'all! Then again, another speculated Frenando Tatis Jr. would be the most notable, so ... meh.

It's not much, but maybe this will help tide you over till the winter meetings next week!

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/35139041

There are too many other teams that are willing to outbid us for one of the Big 4 to come here. Here's just a few.

Phillies are said to be getting a shortstop. No doubt about it. One Insider said they are walking away with one no matter what. The Twins have multiple multiple offers already out on the table for Carpos Correa. When Judge returns to NY, it is said that Zaidi in SF will open the checkbook and leave nothing on the table in acquiring one. Atlanta still wants Dansby to return. The Dodgers have an opening, as well as Boston. I've heard that the Cubs are ready to spend some serious coin as well. So I've actually given up on getting one of the shortstops, even though it makes complete sense.

I feel like Dipoto are acquiring 1 and 2-year band-aids until the young prospects are ready to be called up and then sign a hometown discount if they're good or not.

There's a middle infield pile developing in the minor leagues. Celestin and Cole are the big bets but there's also the other Arroyo (the one that didn't get traded) and Axel Sanchez. And I wouldn't be surprised to see one or two middle infield types drafted early in this next draft. Also, Harry Ford could move to 2B I imagine.

But yeah, that's clearly the plan.

[Seattle or Bust]

Well not necessarily.

You pick players who aren't totally reliant on playing at hitter-friendly ballparks for their numbers to be inflated. Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz are really good examples... guys who had very similar home/road splits through out their careers and coincidentally hit really well at SafeCo.

Brandon Lowe has a .827/.834 split.

I'd much rather trade for Lowe than shell out 8+ years of $30 million to a SS... he'll put up similar if not better numbers than the SS's w. the bat and he'll cost you far less.

Fair enough, But Lowe is not a FA. Per the last paragraph of my last post, maybe trader Jerry will pull off a sweet trade for a legit 2B in which case this all may be moot.

But that will cost us elsewhere. Many on this board have already lamented the depleted farm system, and it will likely take a lot to pry him away from the Rays.

And, per this article, Lowe is not without risk: "Lowe dealt with various injuries in 2022 and only got into 65 games on the season, with diminished production when he was on the field. After hitting .247/.340/.523 for a wRC+ of 137 last year, he slipped to .221/.308/.383 this year, still above average but a much lower 104 wRC+."

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/ ... seman.html

So yeah - there's upsides and downsides to everything. Lowe would like be a good "get" through trade. And it again comes down to whether 3 years of Lowe would be better than options B,C or X,Y,Z involving a stud SS from FA.

I dunno. That's why I putter around here offering my opinion for free, while Dipoto has a cadre of guys sitting in a windowless room, crunching numbers, wearing taped-up, horn rimmed glasses making money to do the same thing...just better. I keep reminding myself that opinions are like assholes. Everyone's got one. Wha do I know...

Sure... Lowe is not without risk.

But if injuries pile up you simply let him walk after '24... you're stuck with a 36-year-old SS hitting for a .720 OPS making $30 million if things don't pan out. Hell, look at Semien... the Rangers are paying him $25 million a year until he's 38 and he just hit for a .733 OPS as a 31 year old.

[Sexymarinersfan]

Well not necessarily.

You pick players who aren't totally reliant on playing at hitter-friendly ballparks for their numbers to be inflated. Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz are really good examples... guys who had very similar home/road splits through out their careers and coincidentally hit really well at SafeCo.

Brandon Lowe has a .827/.834 split.

I'd much rather trade for Lowe than shell out 8+ years of $30 million to a SS... he'll put up similar if not better numbers than the SS's w. the bat and he'll cost you far less.

Fair enough, But Lowe is not a FA. Per the last paragraph of my last post, maybe trader Jerry will pull off a sweet trade for a legit 2B in which case this all may be moot.

But that will cost us elsewhere. Many on this board have already lamented the depleted farm system, and it will likely take a lot to pry him away from the Rays.

And, per this article, Lowe is not without risk: "Lowe dealt with various injuries in 2022 and only got into 65 games on the season, with diminished production when he was on the field. After hitting .247/.340/.523 for a wRC+ of 137 last year, he slipped to .221/.308/.383 this year, still above average but a much lower 104 wRC+."

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/ ... seman.html

So yeah - there's upsides and downsides to everything. Lowe would like be a good "get" through trade. And it again comes down to whether 3 years of Lowe would be better than options B,C or X,Y,Z involving a stud SS from FA.

I dunno. That's why I putter around here offering my opinion for free, while Dipoto has a cadre of guys sitting in a windowless room, crunching numbers, wearing taped-up, horn rimmed glasses making money to do the same thing...just better. I keep reminding myself that opinions are like assholes. Everyone's got one. Wha do I know...

Sure... Lowe is not without risk.

But if injuries pile up you simply let him walk after '24... you're stuck with a 36-year-old SS hitting for a .720 OPS making $30 million if things don't pan out. Hell, look at Semien... the Rangers are paying him $25 million a year until he's 38 and he just hit for a .733 OPS as a 31 year old.

Rangers are going to be regretting that one for awhile. Although I would have loved to have gotten Semien this same time last year, even if it were for that very same deal.

[Pharmabro]

Well not necessarily.

You pick players who aren't totally reliant on playing at hitter-friendly ballparks for their numbers to be inflated. Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz are really good examples... guys who had very similar home/road splits through out their careers and coincidentally hit really well at SafeCo.

Brandon Lowe has a .827/.834 split.

I'd much rather trade for Lowe than shell out 8+ years of $30 million to a SS... he'll put up similar if not better numbers than the SS's w. the bat and he'll cost you far less.

Fair enough, But Lowe is not a FA. Per the last paragraph of my last post, maybe trader Jerry will pull off a sweet trade for a legit 2B in which case this all may be moot.

But that will cost us elsewhere. Many on this board have already lamented the depleted farm system, and it will likely take a lot to pry him away from the Rays.

And, per this article, Lowe is not without risk: "Lowe dealt with various injuries in 2022 and only got into 65 games on the season, with diminished production when he was on the field. After hitting .247/.340/.523 for a wRC+ of 137 last year, he slipped to .221/.308/.383 this year, still above average but a much lower 104 wRC+."

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/ ... seman.html

So yeah - there's upsides and downsides to everything. Lowe would like be a good "get" through trade. And it again comes down to whether 3 years of Lowe would be better than options B,C or X,Y,Z involving a stud SS from FA.

I dunno. That's why I putter around here offering my opinion for free, while Dipoto has a cadre of guys sitting in a windowless room, crunching numbers, wearing taped-up, horn rimmed glasses making money to do the same thing...just better. I keep reminding myself that opinions are like assholes. Everyone's got one. Wha do I know...

There are some really good thoughts here BM. I agree there are costs, trade-offs, risks-reward ratios to be diced on any of these decisions. On the cost for Lowe? Do the Rays think he is done? If not, they probably want something that helps them now. Munoz, Brash, would probably be the only BP guys they would want. Maybe they are in love with JK, Ford, and Miller? But it is probably going to cost you a resource elsewhere. The M's need to add talant, or at least consolidate it. (Both) If the M's could magically turn Marco, Flexen, Winker, JK, TT, Dilly, Ford, etc into (Reynolds, or a TOR) or any sizable upgrade and then put your money down to add a premium player elsewhere.

But I also get the whole players moving from Coors or Fenway to Seattle/SanDiego and getting slapped with pitcher park blues.

[D-train]

Yes, but at what cost?

None of these SS's have true power bats. Playing at SafeCo... all of them will likely hit between 15-25 homers.

All of them have benefited from playing at hitter-friendly ballparks in their careers... Xander .872/.758, Dansby .773/.704, Correa .853/.821, Turner .860/.825. Because SafeCo is where right handed hitters go to die, you're basically looking at all 4 of these guys hitting for no more than an .800 OPS at home, made worse by the fact that none of these guys have plus power.

So you're going to pay guys to play ball into their age 36 to 38 seasons $30+ million a year to hit .280/.350/.400-.450 and play decent defense at the SS position? Seems like a horrible way to shell out money.

If you're going to pay a player $30 million AAV, they better be capable of shelling out 40 homers and be a major bopper in your lineup.

The last SS to get a contract like this was Franky Lindor. He enjoyed MASSIVE home vs away splits in Cleveland... basically a .900/.750 split. Welp, he goes to NYM where Citi Field which has been a bottom-5 ballpark to hit in over the past 3 seasons and was 3rd worst in '22 (SafeCo was 2nd worst)... He throws up a .733 home OPS in '20, .788 in '21, .754 in '22.

These are all valid points, and far be it from me to argue with statistics. But what you say is going to apply to literally every FA we sign, or anyone we acquire through trade. If you are playing in a hitter-friendly park like Coors Field, your power and slash line will take a nose dive when you come to T-Mobile. And every player declines with age - so offering a lengthy contract to any player over, say, 28 is going to result in your getting your money's worth for the first 3 years, and then hoping to unload them the last X years. It just is what it is. Call it the contract of diminishing returns. But it's what you'll have to do to sign a proven FA looking for long term job security.

My point is this: we had 2 years of bumper crops of SS available. Apparently Jerry didn't go after any of them. So it comes down to this: were we a better team without any of those SS and JP and Frazier? Hard to tell without building a time machine, but I'd say we would have been better with JP at 2B, and likely any of the FA SS compared to what we went with. How much better and whether it would be worth the cost could be debated. But I would love to have had Corey Seager as our SS going forward.

The second question is whether any of the available SS out there right now would make us a better team for, say, the next 2 or 3 seasons. The answer is arguably yes. It would cost us, for sure, and every FA comes with a list of concerns as well as strengths. But if I were in the front office, I would be telling JD to make a hard and serious run for at least one of the SS. Armchair GMing is easy.

Finally, it remains to be seen what JD actually does with 2B/SS. Maybe he will pull of a world class trade, keep JP at SS, and manage to land a 2B that takes us to the holy land. In which case forget everything I said about not pursuing a FA SS...

Well not necessarily.

You pick players who aren't totally reliant on playing at hitter-friendly ballparks for their numbers to be inflated. Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz are really good examples... guys who had very similar home/road splits through out their careers and coincidentally hit really well at SafeCo.

Brandon Lowe has a .827/.834 split.

I'd much rather trade for Lowe than shell out 8+ years of $30 million to a SS... he'll put up similar if not better numbers than the SS's w. the bat and he'll cost you far less.

That is why I like Nimmo I think he will hit better in Seattle than he did in Queens.

career .802 home .850 road

[Big_Maple]

That is why I like Nimmo I think he will hit better in Seattle than he did in Queens.

career .802 home .850 road

I'd take Nimmo any day of the week and twice on Sundays.

But, per my earlier post, JD is not tied to any FA rumors by any of the MLB execs/insiders they polled - SS or COF. Nimmo has been mentioned as a potential fit in Seattle, and some sources (slightly more reputable than what you'd hear around a water cooler) mention that Jerry has "checked in"**. But nothing serious.

**Incidental footnote: my guess is that Jerry's idea of "checking in" is to call up Boras, ask him to get together for lunch at Wendy's, and then ask him if Nimmo would like to come to Seattle cause, like, it's really cool and we already have a locker with his name on it and, like, we'd totally pay him minimum wage.

Jerry ain't interested in free agency.

[Sexymarinersfan]

That is why I like Nimmo I think he will hit better in Seattle than he did in Queens.

career .802 home .850 road

I'd take Nimmo any day of the week and twice on Sundays.

But, per my earlier post, JD is not tied to any FA rumors by any of the MLB execs/insiders they polled - SS or COF. Nimmo has been mentioned as a potential fit in Seattle, and some sources (slightly more reputable than what you'd hear around a water cooler) mention that Jerry has "checked in"**. But nothing serious.

**Incidental footnote: my guess is that Jerry's idea of "checking in" is to call up Boras, ask him to get together for lunch at Wendy's, and then ask him if Nimmo would like to come to Seattle cause, like, it's really cool and we already have a locker with his name on it and, like, we'd totally pay him minimum wage.

Jerry ain't interested in free agency.

Unless it's for pitching and international signings. Robbie Ray, Senga, Yoshida, Ohtani, Iwakuma.

And I fucking love Wendy's!

[Big_Maple]

And I fucking love Wendy's!

See? That seals the deal.

Some GMs ply you with 50 year old scotch. Jerry gets you with a Double Stack Biggie Bag!!

[bpj]

Dipoto on spending-

We can't have expensive free agents because they're going to have to pay Gilbert, Kirby and Raleigh eventually.

Guess all that saving of Cano's dollars and cutting payroll for a rebuild wasn't being set aside to reinvest in the team after all

Or, it was being set aside, but only so they could hand out long term contracts to the guys they already have under control.

[Big_Maple]

We can't have expensive free agents because they're going to have to pay Gilbert, Kirby and Raleigh eventually.

Bird in the hand worth two in the bush thinking, I guess.

Thanks for posting this, bpj. Answers a few question marks for me.

But raises a few more, at the same time!