Going to break my own thread starting rules here

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Donn Beach
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Re: Going to break my own thread starting rules here

Post by Donn Beach » Sat Nov 26, 2022 3:55 am

And to get back to your point about offering a QO, that really would have been the right move. Assuming he accepts go on building the team as if he hadn't. He can be the 4th outfielder dh. Or if you can't land a better outfielder there you go, got him in your hip pocket. $20 mil is not a lot of money in baseball terms, and it's a one year contract. That's how teams like the dodgers or giants would play it I bet

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Donn Beach
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Re: Going to break my own thread starting rules here

Post by Donn Beach » Sat Nov 26, 2022 4:10 am

D-train wrote:
Wed Nov 23, 2022 9:05 pm
You just click on attachments, then Add files then place in line and then submit just like a regular post.
Okay, I tried to load an image of D'wayne eskridge, don't see how to do it. What you mean by attachments?

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bpj
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Re: Going to break my own thread starting rules here

Post by bpj » Sat Nov 26, 2022 4:56 am

Donn Beach wrote:
Sat Nov 26, 2022 4:10 am
D-train wrote:
Wed Nov 23, 2022 9:05 pm
You just click on attachments, then Add files then place in line and then submit just like a regular post.
Okay, I tried to load an image of D'wayne eskridge, don't see how to do it. What you mean by attachments?
.
Attachments
Screenshot_20221125-205604_DuckDuckGo.jpg

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D-train
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Re: Going to break my own thread starting rules here

Post by D-train » Sun Nov 27, 2022 2:16 pm

Trade candidates:
By Ryan Divish
Seattle Times staff reporter
The Thanksgiving holiday passed with the Mariners not making a trade or signing just as president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto predicted with a joking reference to years past.

On Nov. 23, 2016, at about 7 the night before Thanksgiving, Dipoto completed a five-player trade with the Diamondbacks that brought second baseman Jean Segura, an unknown outfielder named Mitch Haniger and left-handed reliever Zac Curtis to Seattle in exchange for infielder Ketel Marte and pitcher Taijuan Walker all while preparing food for the next day’s holiday meal.

With the Major League Baseball winter meetings a week away (Dec. 5-8 in San Diego), continued inactivity for baseball’s most efficacious executive is unlikely. Following their first postseason appearance since 2001 and with a large portion of the 2022 team returning, the Mariners have elevated expectations for 2023 and specific needs to push them to the next level — competing for the American League West title and an appearance in the World Series.

Dipoto already addressed one of those needs, acquiring outfielder Teoscar Hernandez from the Blue Jays in exchange for reliever Erik Swanson and talented young pitching prospect Adam Macko.

Realistically, the Mariners need/want to add another corner outfielder and a middle infielder who can provide impact production on offense and perhaps a left-handed reliever to supplement the bullpen.

While Dipoto would like to use some of the ample payroll budget to secure at least one of those needs through free agency, it’s likely that he might have to make a move via the trade route. It’s been his most practiced if not preferred method of player acquisition in the past.

Adding impact players through trade comes with a cost — it costs talent to get talent.

Here’s a look at the talent Dipoto has available:

Thanks for calling, but you wasted your time
Julio Rodriguez
Cal Raleigh
Logan Gilbert
George Kirby
This foursome, or core-some, of players represents the foundation for the Mariners’ future success. With Rodriguez locked up in a multiyear deal that could keep him around for more than a decade and the other three under club control for at least five more years, they are the group Dipoto is building around.

Likely headed elsewhere
Chris Flexen, RHP
When the Mariners acquired Luis Castillo from the Reds a few days before the trade deadline, it meant there would be six starters for five rotation spots. Teams recognized the surplus and made multiple calls on the availability of the 28-year-old Flexen, who had a 7-8 record and 3.73 ERA in 20 starts at the time.

Cautious with Kirby’s workload and cognizant of the need for starting depth, the Mariners hung on to Flexen, moving him to the bullpen.

The prevailing thought is that Dipoto will move Flexen this offseason to a team in need of starting-pitching depth, particularly if it is part of a package for an impact bat.

After reaching his vesting option during the season, Flexen will make $8 million in salary for 2023. That’s a highly affordable number considering he’s proven to be durable — never missing a start because of injury with the Mariners — and viable as a starter. He produced a 3.0 FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement in 2021, posting a 14-6 record with a 3.61 ERA in 26 starts.

“Flex is not the gaudy-stuff type that really jumps off the page when you’re watching him for a scouting perspective,” Dipoto said. “But he fills it up with four average to above-average pitches. He’s a gamer. He takes the ball. He’ll do anything you ask him to do in a role.”

Even Flexen expected to be traded this season. After the Mariners were eliminated from the postseason at T-Mobile Park, he was openly crying in the clubhouse believing he wouldn’t be back with a team and a group of players he’d grown close to over the past two seasons.

Maybe movable
Marco Gonzales, LHP
Diego Castillo, RHP
Abraham Toro, IF
Per multiple MLB sources and other reports, the Mariners were working on a potential trade that would’ve sent Gonzales to the Phillies in the days leading up to the trade deadline. Sources and rumors indicated it was a three-team deal that would’ve possibly sent Yankees outfielder Joey Gallo to Seattle.

As mentioned before, the Mariners have six proven starters on the 40-man roster and they also have right-hander Matt Brash, who started the season in the rotation before being transitioned to the bullpen. Their plan is to have Brash prepare as a starter this offseason and allow him to compete for a spot in the rotation again.

Trading Gonzales isn’t as simple as Flexen, who only has one year remaining on his contract. Gonzales’ four-year, $30 million contract extension, which he signed before the 2020 season, has two years remaining and a club option for a third year. Gonzales is owed $6.5 million in 2023 and $12 million in 2024. That’s not an insignificant amount of money to take on for a pitcher who turns 31 in February and is coming off a down season where he posted a 10-15 record with a 4.13 ERA in 30 starts. Gonzales’ WAR has decreased from 3.5 in 2018 and 3.6 in 2019 to 0.5 in 2021 and 0.1 in 2022.

The Mariners would likely have to take on money in any sort of deal involving Gonzales. Still, he’s been durable and reliable, which has value for teams looking for a back-of-the-rotation starter.

Castillo, who turns 29 in January, posted a 7-4 record with seven saves and a 3.64 ERA in 59 appearances. In his second year of arbitration, Castillo is projected to make around $4 million, which is a fair amount of money for a leverage reliever who had some limitations, particularly vs. left-handed hitters.

Toro has some value as a utility player and a switch hitter. But he’s simply not as good of a player as Dylan Moore and Sam Haggerty in that situation.

Motivated to move?
Jesse Winker, OF
The Mariners shopped Winker at the MLB trade deadline but didn’t find much interest, which wasn’t surprising. The veteran outfielder was slogging his way through his worst season in the big leagues.

Acquired before the season to be an impact bat in the in middle of the order, Winker finished with a .219/.344/.344 slash line with 15 doubles, 15 homers, 53 RBI, 84 walks and 103 strikeouts in 136 games and 547 plate appearances. He was also abysmal in left field, posting a -16 defensive runs saved, the worst among everyday left fielders. Of the 18 left-fielders with 500-plus plate appearances, Winker ranked 16th with 0.4 WAR.

Following the season, the Mariners revealed that Winker would undergo surgery on his knee and neck. Those issues, which weren’t discussed during the season, were supposedly major reasons for his struggles.

It’s fair to believe that a healthy Winker will return to a closer version of the productive hitter he was with the Reds, particularly with the new limitations on defensive shifts.


“It was not our intention that he was going to play left field every day,” Dipoto said. “The goal was that he would split time between DH and left field, and he was kind of forced into having to do that daily. It took a toll on his body. There were some injuries that he had to play through. There’s no reason why he shouldn’t bounce back to his averages. He’s 28 years old and has an irrefutable track record.”

Winker’s value isn’t high. He’s owed $8.25 million in 2023 — his final year of arbitration eligibility. The Mariners would likely have to include him in a package of prospects as a salary offset to move him.

Giving up talent to get better talent
Matt Brash, RHP
Jarred Kelenic, OF
Emerson Hancock, RHP
Harry Ford, C

The Mariners shopped Kelenic at the trade deadline, hoping he might highlight a package of players to acquire Juan Soto or another impact hitter. It wasn’t that they wanted to give up on Kelenic as much as they were looking for immediate impact instead of hoping the 23-year-old would finally put it all together.

He showed progress in his process and approach toward the ups and downs of the game. But it didn’t translate into improved results. The Mariners would certainly move him if it meant bringing back an outfielder or middle infielder with multiple years of club control.

Brash has generated a ton of interest after his rookie season. He’s got a power arm, displayed versatility and has five more years of club control. But it would take a lot to move him.

Hancock, the sixth overall pick in the 2020 draft, has dealt with injury issues that hindered his development. But he showed some promise late in the season with Class AA Arkansas and is still the top pitching prospect in the M’s system per MLB Pipeline.

Ford, an athletic catcher with power potential, is the organization’s No. 1 prospect per MLB Pipeline. He’s only being moved for a major impact player.

Prospects primed to be packaged
Gabriel Gonzalez, OF (No. 3)
Bryce Miller, RHP (No. 5)
Walter Ford RHP (No. 6)
Taylor Dollard, RHP (No. 7)
Lazaro Montes, 1B/OF (No. 10)
Bryan Woo, RHP (No. 14)
Prelander Berroa, RHP (No. 15)
(MLB Pipeline organizational ranking)

The waves of power pitching prospects in the organization would allow Dipoto to put together a solid package for trades. The Mariners’ talent surplus has shifted to the lower levels of the system where there’s an abundance of players ages 17-20 with high ceilings for success.
dt

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D-train
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Re: Going to break my own thread starting rules here

Post by D-train » Mon Nov 28, 2022 6:12 pm

My I knew Nimmo was a better deal but didn't realize how crazy this is:

Nimmo had 5.0 WAR and expected to get 5 years with low $20s AAV. $125M total

Turner had 4.9 WAR and is expected to get 9 years and low $30s AAV $280M total.

Call me crazy but Nimmo is by far the better FA value
dt

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Re: Going to break my own thread starting rules here

Post by harmony » Mon Nov 28, 2022 7:21 pm

D-train wrote:
Mon Nov 28, 2022 6:12 pm
My I knew Nimmo was a better deal but didn't realize how crazy this is:

Nimmo had 5.0 WAR and expected to get 5 years with low $20s AAV. $125M total

Turner had 4.9 WAR and is expected to get 9 years and low $30s AAV $280M total.

Call me crazy but Nimmo is by far the better FA value
Brandon Nimmo has posted 17.9 fWAR in 608 career games, including 5.4 fWAR this year, while Trea Turner, who is three months younger than Nimmo, has posted 31.6 fWAR in 849 career games, including 6.3 fWAR this year.

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Re: Going to break my own thread starting rules here

Post by D-train » Mon Nov 28, 2022 7:31 pm

harmony wrote:
Mon Nov 28, 2022 7:21 pm
D-train wrote:
Mon Nov 28, 2022 6:12 pm
My I knew Nimmo was a better deal but didn't realize how crazy this is:

Nimmo had 5.0 WAR and expected to get 5 years with low $20s AAV. $125M total

Turner had 4.9 WAR and is expected to get 9 years and low $30s AAV $280M total.

Call me crazy but Nimmo is by far the better FA value
Brandon Nimmo has posted 17.9 fWAR in 608 career games, including 5.4 fWAR this year, while Trea Turner, who is three months younger than Nimmo, has posted 31.6 fWAR in 849 career games, including 6.3 fWAR this year.
Yeah that is why Turner will get more but will he be worth 50% more WAR than NIMMO the next 5 years and does he warrant more than 2x the total commitment. I don't see it.
dt

harmony
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Re: Going to break my own thread starting rules here

Post by harmony » Mon Nov 28, 2022 7:37 pm

D-train wrote:
Mon Nov 28, 2022 7:31 pm
harmony wrote:
Mon Nov 28, 2022 7:21 pm
D-train wrote:
Mon Nov 28, 2022 6:12 pm
My I knew Nimmo was a better deal but didn't realize how crazy this is:

Nimmo had 5.0 WAR and expected to get 5 years with low $20s AAV. $125M total

Turner had 4.9 WAR and is expected to get 9 years and low $30s AAV $280M total.

Call me crazy but Nimmo is by far the better FA value
Brandon Nimmo has posted 17.9 fWAR in 608 career games, including 5.4 fWAR this year, while Trea Turner, who is three months younger than Nimmo, has posted 31.6 fWAR in 849 career games, including 6.3 fWAR this year.
Yeah that is why Turner will get more but will he be worth 50% more WAR than NIMMO the next 5 years and does he warrant more than 2x the total commitment. I don't see it.
Brandon Nimmo's injury history is more concerning than Trea Turner's injury history.

Neither contract should end well but teams will consider the immediate improvement each player provides.

bhofferb
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Re: Going to break my own thread starting rules here

Post by bhofferb » Mon Nov 28, 2022 7:45 pm

D-train wrote:
Sun Nov 27, 2022 2:16 pm
Trade candidates:
By Ryan Divish
Seattle Times staff reporter
The Thanksgiving holiday passed with the Mariners not making a trade or signing just as president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto predicted with a joking reference to years past.

On Nov. 23, 2016, at about 7 the night before Thanksgiving, Dipoto completed a five-player trade with the Diamondbacks that brought second baseman Jean Segura, an unknown outfielder named Mitch Haniger and left-handed reliever Zac Curtis to Seattle in exchange for infielder Ketel Marte and pitcher Taijuan Walker all while preparing food for the next day’s holiday meal.

With the Major League Baseball winter meetings a week away (Dec. 5-8 in San Diego), continued inactivity for baseball’s most efficacious executive is unlikely. Following their first postseason appearance since 2001 and with a large portion of the 2022 team returning, the Mariners have elevated expectations for 2023 and specific needs to push them to the next level — competing for the American League West title and an appearance in the World Series.

Dipoto already addressed one of those needs, acquiring outfielder Teoscar Hernandez from the Blue Jays in exchange for reliever Erik Swanson and talented young pitching prospect Adam Macko.

Realistically, the Mariners need/want to add another corner outfielder and a middle infielder who can provide impact production on offense and perhaps a left-handed reliever to supplement the bullpen.

While Dipoto would like to use some of the ample payroll budget to secure at least one of those needs through free agency, it’s likely that he might have to make a move via the trade route. It’s been his most practiced if not preferred method of player acquisition in the past.

Adding impact players through trade comes with a cost — it costs talent to get talent.

Here’s a look at the talent Dipoto has available:

Thanks for calling, but you wasted your time
Julio Rodriguez
Cal Raleigh
Logan Gilbert
George Kirby
This foursome, or core-some, of players represents the foundation for the Mariners’ future success. With Rodriguez locked up in a multiyear deal that could keep him around for more than a decade and the other three under club control for at least five more years, they are the group Dipoto is building around.

Likely headed elsewhere
Chris Flexen, RHP
When the Mariners acquired Luis Castillo from the Reds a few days before the trade deadline, it meant there would be six starters for five rotation spots. Teams recognized the surplus and made multiple calls on the availability of the 28-year-old Flexen, who had a 7-8 record and 3.73 ERA in 20 starts at the time.

Cautious with Kirby’s workload and cognizant of the need for starting depth, the Mariners hung on to Flexen, moving him to the bullpen.

The prevailing thought is that Dipoto will move Flexen this offseason to a team in need of starting-pitching depth, particularly if it is part of a package for an impact bat.

After reaching his vesting option during the season, Flexen will make $8 million in salary for 2023. That’s a highly affordable number considering he’s proven to be durable — never missing a start because of injury with the Mariners — and viable as a starter. He produced a 3.0 FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement in 2021, posting a 14-6 record with a 3.61 ERA in 26 starts.

“Flex is not the gaudy-stuff type that really jumps off the page when you’re watching him for a scouting perspective,” Dipoto said. “But he fills it up with four average to above-average pitches. He’s a gamer. He takes the ball. He’ll do anything you ask him to do in a role.”

Even Flexen expected to be traded this season. After the Mariners were eliminated from the postseason at T-Mobile Park, he was openly crying in the clubhouse believing he wouldn’t be back with a team and a group of players he’d grown close to over the past two seasons.

Maybe movable
Marco Gonzales, LHP
Diego Castillo, RHP
Abraham Toro, IF
Per multiple MLB sources and other reports, the Mariners were working on a potential trade that would’ve sent Gonzales to the Phillies in the days leading up to the trade deadline. Sources and rumors indicated it was a three-team deal that would’ve possibly sent Yankees outfielder Joey Gallo to Seattle.

As mentioned before, the Mariners have six proven starters on the 40-man roster and they also have right-hander Matt Brash, who started the season in the rotation before being transitioned to the bullpen. Their plan is to have Brash prepare as a starter this offseason and allow him to compete for a spot in the rotation again.

Trading Gonzales isn’t as simple as Flexen, who only has one year remaining on his contract. Gonzales’ four-year, $30 million contract extension, which he signed before the 2020 season, has two years remaining and a club option for a third year. Gonzales is owed $6.5 million in 2023 and $12 million in 2024. That’s not an insignificant amount of money to take on for a pitcher who turns 31 in February and is coming off a down season where he posted a 10-15 record with a 4.13 ERA in 30 starts. Gonzales’ WAR has decreased from 3.5 in 2018 and 3.6 in 2019 to 0.5 in 2021 and 0.1 in 2022.

The Mariners would likely have to take on money in any sort of deal involving Gonzales. Still, he’s been durable and reliable, which has value for teams looking for a back-of-the-rotation starter.

Castillo, who turns 29 in January, posted a 7-4 record with seven saves and a 3.64 ERA in 59 appearances. In his second year of arbitration, Castillo is projected to make around $4 million, which is a fair amount of money for a leverage reliever who had some limitations, particularly vs. left-handed hitters.

Toro has some value as a utility player and a switch hitter. But he’s simply not as good of a player as Dylan Moore and Sam Haggerty in that situation.

Motivated to move?
Jesse Winker, OF
The Mariners shopped Winker at the MLB trade deadline but didn’t find much interest, which wasn’t surprising. The veteran outfielder was slogging his way through his worst season in the big leagues.

Acquired before the season to be an impact bat in the in middle of the order, Winker finished with a .219/.344/.344 slash line with 15 doubles, 15 homers, 53 RBI, 84 walks and 103 strikeouts in 136 games and 547 plate appearances. He was also abysmal in left field, posting a -16 defensive runs saved, the worst among everyday left fielders. Of the 18 left-fielders with 500-plus plate appearances, Winker ranked 16th with 0.4 WAR.

Following the season, the Mariners revealed that Winker would undergo surgery on his knee and neck. Those issues, which weren’t discussed during the season, were supposedly major reasons for his struggles.

It’s fair to believe that a healthy Winker will return to a closer version of the productive hitter he was with the Reds, particularly with the new limitations on defensive shifts.


“It was not our intention that he was going to play left field every day,” Dipoto said. “The goal was that he would split time between DH and left field, and he was kind of forced into having to do that daily. It took a toll on his body. There were some injuries that he had to play through. There’s no reason why he shouldn’t bounce back to his averages. He’s 28 years old and has an irrefutable track record.”

Winker’s value isn’t high. He’s owed $8.25 million in 2023 — his final year of arbitration eligibility. The Mariners would likely have to include him in a package of prospects as a salary offset to move him.

Giving up talent to get better talent
Matt Brash, RHP
Jarred Kelenic, OF
Emerson Hancock, RHP
Harry Ford, C

The Mariners shopped Kelenic at the trade deadline, hoping he might highlight a package of players to acquire Juan Soto or another impact hitter. It wasn’t that they wanted to give up on Kelenic as much as they were looking for immediate impact instead of hoping the 23-year-old would finally put it all together.

He showed progress in his process and approach toward the ups and downs of the game. But it didn’t translate into improved results. The Mariners would certainly move him if it meant bringing back an outfielder or middle infielder with multiple years of club control.

Brash has generated a ton of interest after his rookie season. He’s got a power arm, displayed versatility and has five more years of club control. But it would take a lot to move him.

Hancock, the sixth overall pick in the 2020 draft, has dealt with injury issues that hindered his development. But he showed some promise late in the season with Class AA Arkansas and is still the top pitching prospect in the M’s system per MLB Pipeline.

Ford, an athletic catcher with power potential, is the organization’s No. 1 prospect per MLB Pipeline. He’s only being moved for a major impact player.

Prospects primed to be packaged
Gabriel Gonzalez, OF (No. 3)
Bryce Miller, RHP (No. 5)
Walter Ford RHP (No. 6)
Taylor Dollard, RHP (No. 7)
Lazaro Montes, 1B/OF (No. 10)
Bryan Woo, RHP (No. 14)
Prelander Berroa, RHP (No. 15)
(MLB Pipeline organizational ranking)

The waves of power pitching prospects in the organization would allow Dipoto to put together a solid package for trades. The Mariners’ talent surplus has shifted to the lower levels of the system where there’s an abundance of players ages 17-20 with high ceilings for success.
Just what kind of a package of players does Kelenic get you? I’m thinking a couple guys off of Eric Byrnes’ slow pitch team😳

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bpj
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Re: Going to break my own thread starting rules here

Post by bpj » Mon Nov 28, 2022 8:24 pm

D-train wrote:
Mon Nov 28, 2022 7:31 pm
harmony wrote:
Mon Nov 28, 2022 7:21 pm
D-train wrote:
Mon Nov 28, 2022 6:12 pm
My I knew Nimmo was a better deal but didn't realize how crazy this is:

Nimmo had 5.0 WAR and expected to get 5 years with low $20s AAV. $125M total

Turner had 4.9 WAR and is expected to get 9 years and low $30s AAV $280M total.

Call me crazy but Nimmo is by far the better FA value
Brandon Nimmo has posted 17.9 fWAR in 608 career games, including 5.4 fWAR this year, while Trea Turner, who is three months younger than Nimmo, has posted 31.6 fWAR in 849 career games, including 6.3 fWAR this year.
Yeah that is why Turner will get more but will he be worth 50% more WAR than NIMMO the next 5 years and does he warrant more than 2x the total commitment. I don't see it.
Exactly, not to mention they'd be signing 4.9 WAR Trea Turner to replace 2.8 WAR JP Crawford, so they're paying $200M for 2 WAR. It never made sense imo.

Even Dylan Moore had 1.4 WAR in 205 AB's, so it's not like moving JP to 2nd even gives you an improvement over our current depth chart.

Carlos Rodon over Marco Gonzales is a 5.5 WAR difference for about $19M/yr. more than Marco's getting paid.

No reason to blow their wad at shortstop at all.

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