Going to break my own thread starting rules here

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bpj
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Re: Going to break my own thread starting rules here

Post by bpj » Mon Nov 28, 2022 8:29 pm

At this point I think the player mix that makes us the best team without adding cumbersome contracts would be:

Michael Brantley DH (or Haniger)
Bryan Reynolds LF
Gleyber Torres 2B (or Wong if we can't get Torres)
Carlos Rodon SP2

Would cost under $200M total for these contracts ($50M less than one FA SS would cost) and we wouldn't even notice if we traded off our Top 5 prospects (which we wouldnt need to do) if we had that MLB depth.

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D-train
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Re: Going to break my own thread starting rules here

Post by D-train » Mon Nov 28, 2022 8:37 pm

bpj wrote:
Mon Nov 28, 2022 8:24 pm
D-train wrote:
Mon Nov 28, 2022 7:31 pm
harmony wrote:
Mon Nov 28, 2022 7:21 pm

Brandon Nimmo has posted 17.9 fWAR in 608 career games, including 5.4 fWAR this year, while Trea Turner, who is three months younger than Nimmo, has posted 31.6 fWAR in 849 career games, including 6.3 fWAR this year.
Yeah that is why Turner will get more but will he be worth 50% more WAR than NIMMO the next 5 years and does he warrant more than 2x the total commitment. I don't see it.
Exactly, not to mention they'd be signing 4.9 WAR Trea Turner to replace 2.8 WAR JP Crawford, so they're paying $200M for 2 WAR. It never made sense imo.

Even Dylan Moore had 1.4 WAR in 205 AB's, so it's not like moving JP to 2nd even gives you an improvement over our current depth chart.

Carlos Rodon over Marco Gonzales is a 5.5 WAR difference for about $19M/yr. more than Marco's getting paid.

No reason to blow their wad at shortstop at all.
And they won't, I just find it cheesy that this is they way they go about trying to appease fans who are still whipped up into a frenzy over the SSs. I guess I should just enjoy the entertainment and continue to marvel at how gullible people are. :)
dt

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bpj
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Re: Going to break my own thread starting rules here

Post by bpj » Mon Nov 28, 2022 8:44 pm

D-train wrote:
Mon Nov 28, 2022 8:37 pm
bpj wrote:
Mon Nov 28, 2022 8:24 pm
D-train wrote:
Mon Nov 28, 2022 7:31 pm


Yeah that is why Turner will get more but will he be worth 50% more WAR than NIMMO the next 5 years and does he warrant more than 2x the total commitment. I don't see it.
Exactly, not to mention they'd be signing 4.9 WAR Trea Turner to replace 2.8 WAR JP Crawford, so they're paying $200M for 2 WAR. It never made sense imo.

Even Dylan Moore had 1.4 WAR in 205 AB's, so it's not like moving JP to 2nd even gives you an improvement over our current depth chart.

Carlos Rodon over Marco Gonzales is a 5.5 WAR difference for about $19M/yr. more than Marco's getting paid.

No reason to blow their wad at shortstop at all.
And they won't, I just find it cheesy that this is they way they go about trying to appease fans who are still whipped up into a frenzy over the SSs. I guess I should just enjoy the entertainment and continue to marvel at how gullible people are. :)
It wouldn't surprise me at all to see them go after Swanson just because he seems like a terrible fit, just like Story who Dipoto apparently also chased.

Get a load of this, for their careers, in Away games these guys stack up like this:

Swanson: .704
Story: .739
Crawford: .739
Turner: .821
Nimmo: .847
Reynolds: .870

Some of you don't like the "Look at their Away numbers to see what type of player they really are" approach, but it played out exactly as expected with Story and Castellanos last season.

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D-train
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Re: Going to break my own thread starting rules here

Post by D-train » Mon Nov 28, 2022 8:59 pm

bpj wrote:
Mon Nov 28, 2022 8:44 pm
D-train wrote:
Mon Nov 28, 2022 8:37 pm
bpj wrote:
Mon Nov 28, 2022 8:24 pm


Exactly, not to mention they'd be signing 4.9 WAR Trea Turner to replace 2.8 WAR JP Crawford, so they're paying $200M for 2 WAR. It never made sense imo.

Even Dylan Moore had 1.4 WAR in 205 AB's, so it's not like moving JP to 2nd even gives you an improvement over our current depth chart.

Carlos Rodon over Marco Gonzales is a 5.5 WAR difference for about $19M/yr. more than Marco's getting paid.

No reason to blow their wad at shortstop at all.
And they won't, I just find it cheesy that this is they way they go about trying to appease fans who are still whipped up into a frenzy over the SSs. I guess I should just enjoy the entertainment and continue to marvel at how gullible people are. :)
It wouldn't surprise me at all to see them go after Swanson just because he seems like a terrible fit, just like Story who Dipoto apparently also chased.

Get a load of this, for their careers, in Away games these guys stack up like this:

Swanson: .704
Story: .739
Crawford: .739
Turner: .821
Nimmo: .847
Reynolds: .870

Some of you don't like the "Look at their Away numbers to see what type of player they really are" approach, but it played out exactly as expected with Story and Castellanos last season.
The say and do dumb stuff but I think that at least they are focused on big bats given the Teo trade and aren't going to buy high on Swanson. I would almost have Erik back than Dansby if I had to choose between Swansons.... :)
dt

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Re: Going to break my own thread starting rules here

Post by Seattle or Bust » Mon Nov 28, 2022 9:20 pm

I'd trade for Brandon Lowe to keep the farm intact.

I'd go and get Conforto on a 1-year deal w. a mutual option.

If any of those 2x players can sniff their normal production you've just added 50 homers and about .200 points in OPS to both positions.

I feel like the Astros are going to make a big push at Conforto however. He'd be a perfect fit for them...

harmony
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Re: Going to break my own thread starting rules here

Post by harmony » Mon Nov 28, 2022 9:28 pm

Seattle or Bust wrote:
Mon Nov 28, 2022 9:20 pm
I'd trade for Brandon Lowe to keep the farm intact.

I'd go and get Conforto on a 1-year deal w. a mutual option.

If any of those 2x players can sniff their normal production you've just added 50 homers and about .200 points in OPS to both positions.

I feel like the Astros are going to make a big push at Conforto however. He'd be a perfect fit for them...
Brandon Lowe is a decent target but how do the Mariners trade for Lowe while keeping the farm intact?

The Tampa Bay Rays are likely to target prospects and players earning the league minimum.

Baseball Trade Values assign Lowe a surplus trade value of $18.8 million:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/8744/

... about the combined trade value of Harry Ford and Cole Young, the Mariners' last two first-round draft picks.

Would anyone trade Andres Munoz (trade value of $17.1 million) for Brandon Lowe?

Seattle or Bust
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Re: Going to break my own thread starting rules here

Post by Seattle or Bust » Mon Nov 28, 2022 9:37 pm

harmony wrote:
Mon Nov 28, 2022 9:28 pm
Seattle or Bust wrote:
Mon Nov 28, 2022 9:20 pm
I'd trade for Brandon Lowe to keep the farm intact.

I'd go and get Conforto on a 1-year deal w. a mutual option.

If any of those 2x players can sniff their normal production you've just added 50 homers and about .200 points in OPS to both positions.

I feel like the Astros are going to make a big push at Conforto however. He'd be a perfect fit for them...
Brandon Lowe is a decent target but how do the Mariners trade for Lowe while keeping the farm intact?

The Tampa Bay Rays are likely to target prospects and players earning the league minimum.

Baseball Trade Values assign Lowe a surplus trade value of $18.8 million:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/8744/

... about the combined trade value of Harry Ford and Cole Young, the Mariners' last two first-round draft picks.

Would anyone trade Andres Munoz (trade value of $17.1 million) for Brandon Lowe?
Trading for someone like Reynolds would require 2-3 top-10 guys.

I've already offered a trade package for Lowe in previous posts. I also think MLBTV sells the M's prospects short.

If the M's offered one of Taylor Dollard/Emerson Hancock/Bryce Miller + a Jonatan Clase type + Dylan Moore they'd be hard pressed to say no.

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harmony
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Re: Going to break my own thread starting rules here

Post by harmony » Mon Nov 28, 2022 9:44 pm

Seattle or Bust wrote:
Mon Nov 28, 2022 9:37 pm
harmony wrote:
Mon Nov 28, 2022 9:28 pm
Seattle or Bust wrote:
Mon Nov 28, 2022 9:20 pm
I'd trade for Brandon Lowe to keep the farm intact.

I'd go and get Conforto on a 1-year deal w. a mutual option.

If any of those 2x players can sniff their normal production you've just added 50 homers and about .200 points in OPS to both positions.

I feel like the Astros are going to make a big push at Conforto however. He'd be a perfect fit for them...
Brandon Lowe is a decent target but how do the Mariners trade for Lowe while keeping the farm intact?

The Tampa Bay Rays are likely to target prospects and players earning the league minimum.

Baseball Trade Values assign Lowe a surplus trade value of $18.8 million:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/8744/

... about the combined trade value of Harry Ford and Cole Young, the Mariners' last two first-round draft picks.

Would anyone trade Andres Munoz (trade value of $17.1 million) for Brandon Lowe?
Trading for someone like Reynolds would require 2-3 top-10 guys.

I've already offered a trade package for Lowe in previous posts. I also think MLBTV sells the M's prospects short.

If the M's offered one of Taylor Dollard/Emerson Hancock/Bryce Miller + a Jonatan Clase type + Dylan Moore they'd be hard pressed to say no.

Image
FWIW the Rays would save only $3.25 million in 2023 payroll by replacing Brandon Lowe with arbitration-eligible Dylan Moore, who is two years older than Lowe.

Seattle or Bust
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Re: Going to break my own thread starting rules here

Post by Seattle or Bust » Mon Nov 28, 2022 9:51 pm

harmony wrote:
Mon Nov 28, 2022 9:44 pm
Seattle or Bust wrote:
Mon Nov 28, 2022 9:37 pm
harmony wrote:
Mon Nov 28, 2022 9:28 pm

Brandon Lowe is a decent target but how do the Mariners trade for Lowe while keeping the farm intact?

The Tampa Bay Rays are likely to target prospects and players earning the league minimum.

Baseball Trade Values assign Lowe a surplus trade value of $18.8 million:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/8744/

... about the combined trade value of Harry Ford and Cole Young, the Mariners' last two first-round draft picks.

Would anyone trade Andres Munoz (trade value of $17.1 million) for Brandon Lowe?
Trading for someone like Reynolds would require 2-3 top-10 guys.

I've already offered a trade package for Lowe in previous posts. I also think MLBTV sells the M's prospects short.

If the M's offered one of Taylor Dollard/Emerson Hancock/Bryce Miller + a Jonatan Clase type + Dylan Moore they'd be hard pressed to say no.

Image
FWIW the Rays would save only $3.25 million in 2023 payroll by replacing Brandon Lowe with arbitration-eligible Dylan Moore, who is two years older than Lowe.
Can you please stop starting everything w. FWIW? It doesn't need to be worth anything. Just say it.

Yes, and they'd get a promising young starter + rising OF in return. It's not a 1-for-1.

Big_Maple
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Re: Going to break my own thread starting rules here

Post by Big_Maple » Mon Nov 28, 2022 10:22 pm

Seattle or Bust wrote:
Mon Nov 28, 2022 9:20 pm
I'd trade for Brandon Lowe to keep the farm intact.
I think the farm is fine, and I am even finer if we deplete it more to get some good talent that helps us now.

Look, we did an amazing job of building a top tier farm system in 2020 and 2021, and we graduated some first rate talent in the form of Kirby and Jrod, and we traded away some talent to get Hernandez and Castillo and Suarez. I think that gave us the jolt we needed to break the playoff drought last season. But the fact is, we can drain the farm system and still be fine as long as we get better at player development.

Case in point: the Astros. They are simply the most dominant team in MLB, and they have been for the past several years. And they have done this despite losing some of the top free agents 4 years in a row, and after forfeiting first and second round draft picks in the wake of the cheating scandal.

In 2014, The Astros had the best farm system in baseball with several soon-to-be all stars of Rookies of the Year waiting in the wings. In 2022, their farm system was rock bottom (28th). In that same year, they won the World Series. In 2021 they had the 29th ranked farm system with NO players in the top 100. And yet they keep churning out replacements that are as good, or better than the players that leave (Pena for Correa, for example).

The Astros are just really, really good at spotting talent and even better at developing it. Of their 6 man pitching rotation this year, 5 were homegrown talents (Verlander is the exception). McCullers was a high draft pick, but the other 4 guys were international signing. Other stars weren't the result of high draft picks or expensive trades either: Alvarez was acquired through a lopsided trade with the Dodgers, and Pena was a third round draft pick. The Stros don't usually make splashy free agent signings during the off season either. So they apparently don't need top draft picks or highly ranked farm systems to thrive - they are just good at finding other ways of detecting and growing talent, and then retaining a solid core.

The point I am making is this: we wring our hands a lot about the farm system. I loved it the last year or two when we had one of the top ranked systems in baseball. Bragging rights. But we moved the guys along and around and built a better team - that's what farm systems are for, and we fell to the 23rd spot. But I know that we can get better even if we trade away more prospects and even if we don't sign Aaron Judge or Carlos Correa. If the Astros can do it, surely we can, too.

Also note that this rant wasn't in direct response to the trade you proposed, SoB - just a general statement about the necessity of keeping farm systems intact compared to depleting them acquire talent.

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