The True Cost of Draft, Develop & Trade

[bpj]

There’s no denying that Jerry Dipoto has put together a quality MLB team with a solid foundation. A solid minor league sytem. A solid core at the MLB level. A very competitive team by all accounts.

He has earned accolades for building the team through DDT, Draft, Develop, and Trade. In doing so, Dipoto has cut payroll from $158 million in 2018 to $104 million in 2022. The 2018 team won 89 games, and the 2022 team won 90 games. The team is as competitive now as it was at it’s payroll peak, even while cutting payroll by one-third.

Dipoto clearly deserves credit for putting together a competitive team and keeping the payroll under control. But it hasn’t come without it’s own costs, and there are some pretty obvious reasons that it has taken him 7 years to do so. For every trade Dipoto has made in order to avoid spending market value in free agency, the Mariners have done so at the expense of talent in the system, and many of the players they acquired were still getting paid higher than average salaries. Money that could possibly have been (better?) spent in free agency without giving up prospects.

Since 2016 Dipoto has spent $177.4 million on players that he acquired mostly via trade (some FA pitchers/catchers) and most of them have provided little to no value to the Mariners. There are some obvious wins like Eugenio Suarez. But even Suarez came at the expense of Brandon Williamson, Justin Dunn, and the salary owed, which fortunately is more than reasonable.

The group of players includes Nori Aoki, Adam Lind, Wade Miley, Chris Iannetta, Steve Cishek, Joaquin Benoit, Yovani Gallardo, Drew Smyly, Danny Valencia, Marc Rzepczynski, Carlos Ruiz, Dee Gordon, Juan Nicasio, David Phelps, Yusei Kikuchi, Mallex Smith, James Paxton, Rafael Montero, Adam Frazier, Jesse Winker, Ken Giles, Sergio Romo, and Evan White (included because he was handed a contract).

Those players accounted for 6.2 fWAR for a cost of $177.4 million dollars. Unfortunately, that wasn’t the extent of what it cost the Mariners.

The players they gave up in these trades included:

Mark Trumbo (1.7 WAR the year he was traded, including 47 homeruns, the Mariners missed the playoffs by 1 game)

To replace him, the Mariners traded for Adam Lind, and gave up Freddy Peralta (8.8 career fWAR) in that package.

Enyel de los Santos (for Joaquin Benoit)(0.8 fWAR career, (3.04 ERA, 10.29 K/9 in 2022))

Ryan Yarbrough (for Drew Smyly) (5.8 fWAR career)

Paul Blackburn (for Danny Valencia) (1.7 fWAR career)

Nate Karns (for Jarrod Dyson) (0.5 fWAR)

Pablo Lopez (for David Phelps) (8.7 fWAR career)

Mike Zunino (for Mallex Smith) (0.4 fWAR during remaining control)

Guillermo Heredia (for Mallex Smith) (1.6 fWAR after trade)

There were several other players that have been traded away that have yet to make an impact. Missing the playoffs in 2016 by one game after shipping Trumbo off for a grudge- that trade hurts as much as any in my opinion. But setting that aside, this group of notable players that Dipoto traded away under the DDT model accumulated 28.3 fWAR.

Let’s say that again.

Dipoto’s underperforming trade acquisitions and the relief pitcher/catcher free agent signings he did make accumulated 6.2 fWAR at a cost of $177.4M from 2016-2022.

The players he traded away for these players have accumulated 28.2 fWAR at near league minimum salaries.

Draft, develop and trade is a catchy phrase. But in practice, Dipoto has not gotten good results overall. There is a reason it has taken 7 years for him to put a quality team on the field. The majority of the players he has acquired performed very poorly, and the players he traded away have proven to be substantial losses.

One has to wonder if holding on to our young players and actually augmenting the roster through free agency would have produced better results. Regardless at this point management has saved a large amount of money since taking a step back in 2022, Jerry Dipoto was given a promotion, and the product on the field is a sustainable winner. But given the path to get here, it’s not surprising to see ownership tighten the reins on payroll.

[D-train]

Sure but without Mallex Smith we would never have enjoyed this amazing moment:

[Juliooooo]

Devils advocate response, should be be judged on WAR for players during years when winning want the priority and goal? His goal for 2018-2020 was to build up depth and lower payroll, and he was successful at that. Much of the money he traded for in those years was to get rid of larger salaries.

As for the trades when they were competing, he traded lottery picks that had maybe a 10 % chance of racing MLB, and the other team struck big on that lottery. Hopefully he doesn't go that route, but that was my worry trading Marte and Arroyo last year. At least this time it was a higher end player.

[ddraig]

Most of the trades were to reduce salaries, which he did, successfully. Second to that was to acquire talent to bolster the farm system. Winning during that time was not a priority and I believe the 2021 season was a surprise. Unfortunately, management must think there will be continued growth with the club. Let's hope so.

[D-train]

Jerry on the radio now

https://player.listenlive.co/35801

[D-train]

They are asking him why are there no trades???? Jerry says it is different because more parity. So teams don't want to trade mlb players.

Now he is trying to explain his idiot DH philosophy

[D-train]

Say he is open to full time DH .

[ddraig]

For pennies on the dollar?

[Juliooooo]

They are asking him why are there no trades???? Jerry says it is different because more parity. So teams don't want to trade mlb players.

Now he is trying to explain his idiot DH philosophy

So ask him why the fuck he won't sign free agents

[D-train]

They are asking him why are there no trades???? Jerry says it is different because more parity. So teams don't want to trade mlb players.

Now he is trying to explain his idiot DH philosophy

So ask him why the fuck he won't sign free agents

lol they have all been signed already...Doh!