2023 MLB Draft

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GL_Storm
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Re: 2023 MLB Draft

Post by GL_Storm » Fri Feb 24, 2023 12:28 pm

D-train wrote:
Fri Feb 24, 2023 12:00 pm
Sexymarinersfan wrote:
Fri Feb 24, 2023 10:28 am
GL_Storm wrote:
Thu Feb 23, 2023 11:26 pm


Yeah, we were talking about him upthread. Sexy likes him more than I do.
I really do! I've been watching him as much as possible this season. I don't think he'll make it to us at #23 though. And I'm not quite sold on Tommy Troy. Doesn't do any ONE thing well. He's more of a sum of all parts player.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... l-in-2023/
I just can't get over that K rate. Have to go all the way back 82 years to 1941 when Joe D had 13 Ks in 622 PAs for a 2.1% K Rate. Joe had 30 HRs that season. More than double the HRs as Ks. Beyond belief.

Only 2 guys were below 10% in 2022. Arraez at 7.1% and Kwan at 9.4%.
What's the level of competition in the WAC though? You take away the metal bat and add in a bunch of dudes throwing in the mid to upper 90's and it's a whole different ballgame, literally. The swing that works for him at GCU won't work with a wood bat in A-Ball or AA, which is fine actually since lots of guys are in that boat. Just don't expect the same results.

A significant factor is if he's a true shortstop or not at the ML level. Here's what the writeup on him at Prospects Live says:

The son of MLB-veteran shortstop Jack Wilson, Jacob Wilson has been one of the most accomplished, mature hitters in the country during his stay at GCU. He's got a prolific eye at the plate with an extremely advanced approach and a grand willingness to use the whole field. Wilson never strikes out. Like, ever. In 2022, he took 25 free passes, punching out just seven times. Wilson showcases 40-grade power but many believe he'll grow into fringe-average pop in the pros. He's an average defender at shortstop and could comfortably move to third base or second base. Elite instincts on the field and makeup off the field, Wilson checks a ton of boxes and is a very popular figure among his peers and evaluators.

I would point out two things:

1) 40 grade power (with metal bats against low level comp)
2) Already hedging about his future position

And don't forget he's a right-handed batter.

Would you really draft this player in the first round? What are the chances he's better than Dylan Moore?

To me, he's a second or third round pick with a future as a bench player.

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D-train
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Re: 2023 MLB Draft

Post by D-train » Fri Feb 24, 2023 1:19 pm

I am only commenting on the K Rate which is unheard of in modern baseball. Only 10 games but he definitely came down to earth with wood bats on the Cape last summer. .278/.770
dt

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Donn Beach
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Re: 2023 MLB Draft

Post by Donn Beach » Fri Feb 24, 2023 1:21 pm

GL_Storm wrote:
Fri Feb 24, 2023 12:28 pm
D-train wrote:
Fri Feb 24, 2023 12:00 pm
Sexymarinersfan wrote:
Fri Feb 24, 2023 10:28 am


I really do! I've been watching him as much as possible this season. I don't think he'll make it to us at #23 though. And I'm not quite sold on Tommy Troy. Doesn't do any ONE thing well. He's more of a sum of all parts player.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... l-in-2023/
I just can't get over that K rate. Have to go all the way back 82 years to 1941 when Joe D had 13 Ks in 622 PAs for a 2.1% K Rate. Joe had 30 HRs that season. More than double the HRs as Ks. Beyond belief.

Only 2 guys were below 10% in 2022. Arraez at 7.1% and Kwan at 9.4%.

What's the level of competition in the WAC though
? You take away the metal bat and add in a bunch of dudes throwing in the mid to upper 90's and it's a whole different ballgame, literally. The swing that works for him at GCU won't work with a wood bat in A-Ball or AA, which is fine actually since lots of guys are in that boat. Just don't expect the same results.

A significant factor is if he's a true shortstop or not at the ML level. Here's what the writeup on him at Prospects Live says:

The son of MLB-veteran shortstop Jack Wilson, Jacob Wilson has been one of the most accomplished, mature hitters in the country during his stay at GCU. He's got a prolific eye at the plate with an extremely advanced approach and a grand willingness to use the whole field. Wilson never strikes out. Like, ever. In 2022, he took 25 free passes, punching out just seven times. Wilson showcases 40-grade power but many believe he'll grow into fringe-average pop in the pros. He's an average defender at shortstop and could comfortably move to third base or second base. Elite instincts on the field and makeup off the field, Wilson checks a ton of boxes and is a very popular figure among his peers and evaluators.

I would point out two things:

1) 40 grade power (with metal bats against low level comp)
2) Already hedging about his future position

And don't forget he's a right-handed batter.

Would you really draft this player in the first round? What are the chances he's better than Dylan Moore?

To me, he's a second or third round pick with a future as a bench player.
The WAC has claimed seven NCAA baseball national championships. The most recent WAC national champion is the 2008 Fresno State Bulldogs baseball team.

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Sexymarinersfan
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Re: 2023 MLB Draft

Post by Sexymarinersfan » Fri Feb 24, 2023 2:42 pm

D-train wrote:
Fri Feb 24, 2023 12:00 pm
Sexymarinersfan wrote:
Fri Feb 24, 2023 10:28 am
GL_Storm wrote:
Thu Feb 23, 2023 11:26 pm


Yeah, we were talking about him upthread. Sexy likes him more than I do.
I really do! I've been watching him as much as possible this season. I don't think he'll make it to us at #23 though. And I'm not quite sold on Tommy Troy. Doesn't do any ONE thing well. He's more of a sum of all parts player.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... l-in-2023/
I just can't get over that K rate. Have to go all the way back 82 years to 1941 when Joe D had 13 Ks in 622 PAs for a 2.1% K Rate. Joe had 30 HRs that season. More than double the HRs as Ks. Beyond belief.

Only 2 guys were below 10% in 2022. Arraez at 7.1% and Kwan at 9.4%.
Yeah, if a kid hits like that, and can play a little D, he'll be long gone by 23. There's still a lot of value in this draft though. I just hope we can identify some really good bats. Although as I've said before, we seem to have a knack for acquiring and developing pitching. We can always trade for bats with enough quality arms.

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D-train
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Re: 2023 MLB Draft

Post by D-train » Fri Feb 24, 2023 4:07 pm

Sexymarinersfan wrote:
Fri Feb 24, 2023 2:42 pm
D-train wrote:
Fri Feb 24, 2023 12:00 pm
Sexymarinersfan wrote:
Fri Feb 24, 2023 10:28 am


I really do! I've been watching him as much as possible this season. I don't think he'll make it to us at #23 though. And I'm not quite sold on Tommy Troy. Doesn't do any ONE thing well. He's more of a sum of all parts player.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... l-in-2023/
I just can't get over that K rate. Have to go all the way back 82 years to 1941 when Joe D had 13 Ks in 622 PAs for a 2.1% K Rate. Joe had 30 HRs that season. More than double the HRs as Ks. Beyond belief.

Only 2 guys were below 10% in 2022. Arraez at 7.1% and Kwan at 9.4%.
Yeah, if a kid hits like that, and can play a little D, he'll be long gone by 23. There's still a lot of value in this draft though. I just hope we can identify some really good bats. Although as I've said before, we seem to have a knack for acquiring and developing pitching. We can always trade for bats with enough quality arms.
Can't wait to watch next year's prospects with you down on the Cape!

I live just 45 miles North of Wareham.
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dt

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Sexymarinersfan
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Re: 2023 MLB Draft

Post by Sexymarinersfan » Fri Feb 24, 2023 4:13 pm

D-train wrote:
Fri Feb 24, 2023 4:07 pm
Sexymarinersfan wrote:
Fri Feb 24, 2023 2:42 pm
D-train wrote:
Fri Feb 24, 2023 12:00 pm


I just can't get over that K rate. Have to go all the way back 82 years to 1941 when Joe D had 13 Ks in 622 PAs for a 2.1% K Rate. Joe had 30 HRs that season. More than double the HRs as Ks. Beyond belief.

Only 2 guys were below 10% in 2022. Arraez at 7.1% and Kwan at 9.4%.
Yeah, if a kid hits like that, and can play a little D, he'll be long gone by 23. There's still a lot of value in this draft though. I just hope we can identify some really good bats. Although as I've said before, we seem to have a knack for acquiring and developing pitching. We can always trade for bats with enough quality arms.
Can't wait to watch next year's prospects with you down on the Cape!

I live just 45 miles North of Wareham.

cc.JPG
Likewise bro! We've already been discussing the trip routes. Super excited for that. It'll be a 9 day trek. Three different stops. 3 days with you. 3 in Vermont, and 3 in Maine.

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D-train
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Re: 2023 MLB Draft

Post by D-train » Fri Feb 24, 2023 4:48 pm

Sexymarinersfan wrote:
Fri Feb 24, 2023 4:13 pm
D-train wrote:
Fri Feb 24, 2023 4:07 pm
Sexymarinersfan wrote:
Fri Feb 24, 2023 2:42 pm


Yeah, if a kid hits like that, and can play a little D, he'll be long gone by 23. There's still a lot of value in this draft though. I just hope we can identify some really good bats. Although as I've said before, we seem to have a knack for acquiring and developing pitching. We can always trade for bats with enough quality arms.
Can't wait to watch next year's prospects with you down on the Cape!

I live just 45 miles North of Wareham.

cc.JPG
Likewise bro! We've already been discussing the trip routes. Super excited for that. It'll be a 9 day trek. Three different stops. 3 days with you. 3 in Vermont, and 3 in Maine.
Have you nailed down the 3 days in here in Quincy yet? Thanks!
dt

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Sexymarinersfan
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Re: 2023 MLB Draft

Post by Sexymarinersfan » Sat Feb 25, 2023 7:49 am

Now that the college baseball season has kicked off, we finally have some real life baseball performances to talk about. A player who had a standout opening weekend was Maryland middle-infielder Matt Shaw. The 5-foot-11 righty went 6-for-12 with two doubles, and a home run. He also went two for two on stolen base attempts, struck out twice and walked twice.

Not only did he impress this past weekend, but he has two very good statistical seasons under his belt so far at Maryland. in 2021 he hit .332 in 45 games with a .408 on base percentage and a .543 slugging percentage. Then to follow that up he slashed .290/.381/.604 with 22 home runs and 67 RBI in 60 games last season. Things are looking up for the 21-year-old, and may be an intriguing college middle infielder for the Mariners to draft this summer.

Some prospect rankings differ on where they have him ranked. Prospects Live has him as high as number 11, while MLB Pipeline has Shaw 20th, so he may be an option for the Mariners in the early 20s. Prospects Live said he has the chance of, “developing into a Kike Hernandez type pro.” That would certainly be a valuable player for the Mariners to have coming up through their system. They do not have much infield depth in the high minors. According to MLB Pipeline, there is not a single infield prospect who is has played at a level higher than High-A ball. Therefore adding a college infielder would give the Mariners hope for some help in just a few years at the big league level.

High school baseball is also right around the corner in the Pacific Northwest, with practices beginning this Monday February 27th. One of the top high school arms in the class may be available for the Mariners at the end of the first round, and that is Oregon high schooler Noble Meyer. He is a 6-foot-5 righty from Jesuit high school in Portland, Oregon, the same high school that Mick Abel attended.

Ranked 22nd overall on Prospects Live’s board, they say, “he checks a lot of the boxes.” With a fastball that touches 98 and his delivery has some deception, that is a pretty good starting point for the teenager. He also features a slider and changeup in his arsenal, and it will be fun to watch a local kid draw draft buzz from around the game.

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Donn Beach
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Re: 2023 MLB Draft

Post by Donn Beach » Sat Feb 25, 2023 11:31 am

There is also the New England Collegiate Baseball League, and the Futures League

GL_Storm
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Re: 2023 MLB Draft

Post by GL_Storm » Sun Feb 26, 2023 9:29 pm

This is actually related more to the 2022 draft. This video on Druw Jones' hitting routine popped up in my feed. This was pre-draft I'm sure. Jones was selected #2 overall last year and then after signing his contract pretty much immediately got injured (shoulder) and is now out until July or perhaps the entire 2023 minor league season.

Here's the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NEMIBndknEs

What I find kind of interesting here is that this is obviously one heck of an athlete but in the runup to the 2022 draft, none of the writeups really talked much about the bat, emphasizing more the overall talent and that he was a no-doubt center fielder. And in this video I can sort of see why because his swing is mostly upper body. It's still very graceful and fluid and he might be strong enough to make it work in pro ball, but then again he might not. And this explains why the writeups simply edged around the hit tool.

I'm not saying Jones is a bad prospect or anything like that. But there is a moral to this story, which is that when reading about a draft prospect try and pay some attention to what evaluators aren't saying.

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