Roster prediction from Brock

harmony
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Re: Roster prediction from Brock

Post by harmony » Fri Jan 27, 2023 4:04 pm

In recent reading unrelated to baseball I stumbled upon the Dunning-Kruger Effect:

"The Dunning-Kruger effect occurs when a person’s lack of knowledge and skills in a certain area cause them to overestimate their own competence."

https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/dunning-kruger-effect

Internet forums in general, and this forum in particular, come to mind.

Of course MLB front office personnel were not born with their current knowledge and expertise. At some point they had no more expertise than the average poster to this forum. However, those persons likely persisted by asking questions and seeking answers. In a competitive field those persons eventually acquired enough expertise to land a front office job.

Every fan is entitled to question the moves of any team. Unfortunately some fans apparently cannot distinguish between simply asking questions and outright denigrating front office personnel.

Keep the questions coming. Albert Einstein is quoted as saying “the more I learn, the more I realize how much I don't know."

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D-train
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Re: Roster prediction from Brock

Post by D-train » Fri Jan 27, 2023 5:02 pm

I am not questioning Jerry's knowledge and expertise, I am questioning his style and character. I am a good judge of character and will continue to call him out for being snake oil salesman until he stops being one.
dt

GL_Storm
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Re: Roster prediction from Brock

Post by GL_Storm » Fri Jan 27, 2023 7:58 pm

harmony wrote:
Fri Jan 27, 2023 4:04 pm
In recent reading unrelated to baseball I stumbled upon the Dunning-Kruger Effect:

"The Dunning-Kruger effect occurs when a person’s lack of knowledge and skills in a certain area cause them to overestimate their own competence."

https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/dunning-kruger-effect

Internet forums in general, and this forum in particular, come to mind.

Of course MLB front office personnel were not born with their current knowledge and expertise. At some point they had no more expertise than the average poster to this forum. However, those persons likely persisted by asking questions and seeking answers. In a competitive field those persons eventually acquired enough expertise to land a front office job.

Every fan is entitled to question the moves of any team. Unfortunately some fans apparently cannot distinguish between simply asking questions and outright denigrating front office personnel.

Keep the questions coming. Albert Einstein is quoted as saying “the more I learn, the more I realize how much I don't know."
Glad to see someone bringing up Dunning-Kruger on this forum. I personally try my best to qualify my statements and limit the scope of my conclusions, precisely because I'm keenly aware of how much I don't understand about baseball and many other subjects.

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Re: Roster prediction from Brock

Post by GL_Storm » Fri Jan 27, 2023 8:21 pm

Just for fun, and since we were talking about him earlier in the thread, I'll go ahead and venture into Dunning-Kruger territory with this amazing hot take about JP.

Here it is: JP needs to get stronger. When he swings the bat, his swing often looks long and weak. Some of that probably comes from below average bat speed, and so again, he needs to get some percentage stronger. Probably. Now, that's not to say he's a weak guy. I know he's one of the better pure athletes on the team and I wouldn't be surprised to find out he's actually very strong in the traditional measures - squat, deadlift, bench press, shoulder press, power clean. But it seems like when you watch him swing the bat, that it's just too much for him. It's a naked eye test, not scientific. And so my best guess is that he needs more baseline pure strength.

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D-train
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Re: Roster prediction from Brock

Post by D-train » Fri Jan 27, 2023 8:22 pm

There is a lot I don't know about baseball too. But me and a bunch of mentally challenged 5th graders can all conclude that a guy that had his best season when he played 160 of 162 games didn't have a down season because he didn't get enough rest when only played 145 games.

Maybe he was injured and maybe it was for other reasons but it certainly wasn't do to exhaustion...lol
dt

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D-train
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Re: Roster prediction from Brock

Post by D-train » Fri Jan 27, 2023 8:24 pm

GL_Storm wrote:
Fri Jan 27, 2023 8:21 pm
Just for fun, and since we were talking about him earlier in the thread, I'll go ahead and venture into Dunning-Kruger territory with this amazing hot take about JP.

Here it is: JP needs to get stronger. When he swings the bat, his swing often looks long and weak. Some of that probably comes from below average bat speed, and so again, he needs to get some percentage stronger. Probably. Now, that's not to say he's a weak guy. I know he's one of the better pure athletes on the team and I wouldn't be surprised to find out he's actually very strong in the traditional measures - squat, deadlift, bench press, shoulder press, power clean. But it seems like when you watch him swing the bat, that it's just too much for him. It's a naked eye test, not scientific. And so my best guess is that he needs more baseline pure strength.
Totally agree. Weird thing is he isn't fast either. He is a slick fielder and looks athletic but oddly weak and relatively slow. Odd combo to say the least.
dt

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bpj
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Re: Roster prediction from Brock

Post by bpj » Sat Jan 28, 2023 2:01 am

harmony wrote:
Fri Jan 27, 2023 4:04 pm
In recent reading unrelated to baseball I stumbled upon the Dunning-Kruger Effect:

"The Dunning-Kruger effect occurs when a person’s lack of knowledge and skills in a certain area cause them to overestimate their own competence."

https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/dunning-kruger-effect

Internet forums in general, and this forum in particular, come to mind.

Of course MLB front office personnel were not born with their current knowledge and expertise. At some point they had no more expertise than the average poster to this forum. However, those persons likely persisted by asking questions and seeking answers. In a competitive field those persons eventually acquired enough expertise to land a front office job.

Every fan is entitled to question the moves of any team. Unfortunately some fans apparently cannot distinguish between simply asking questions and outright denigrating front office personnel.

Keep the questions coming. Albert Einstein is quoted as saying “the more I learn, the more I realize how much I don't know."
Some people have a track record on their gripes that prove management wrong.

Most are willing to admit when they're wrong, if it happens.

Most of us even flat out say that certain things are above our pay grade, like choosing which players should be good once they get here.

But when the stats show they may not be a good fit and meanwhile Jerry mentions how great they are in the clubhouse, well, it leaves room to question the move at the very least.

What I see more of is some form of Stockholm Syndrome where fans have been ridden without lube by management for 40 years but they still show up to defend every move they make.

Things like,

"Mallex Smith just needs more time!"

"Braden Bishop just needs more time!"

No, they didn't.

"Dee Gordon is a great clubhouse presence."

Get outta here with that.

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