Roster prediction from Brock

User avatar
D-train
Posts: 67964
Joined: Mon Apr 29, 2019 1:33 am
Location: Quincy, MA

Roster prediction from Brock

Post by D-train » Thu Jan 26, 2023 5:58 pm

By Corey Brock
Jan 23, 2023
68

Save Article
With a little more than three weeks before the Mariners’ pitchers and catchers report to Arizona for the start of spring training, I thought it would be a good time to take a stab at what the opening-day roster could look like.

Honestly, this wasn’t exactly back-breaking work.

We could have pegged most of these guys as far back as the conclusion of that dreamy 2022 season that ended in the American League Division Series, which isn’t a bad thing for a team coming off a 90-win season.

The Mariners were active early in the offseason, adding outfielder Teoscar Hernández and second baseman Kolten Wong, and then essentially sat out the rest of the winter — adding a few nominal pieces here and there, but not taking a bigger plunge into free agency.

Did they do enough? This group, looking at it objectively, feels one impact bat shy of being really good. I still think Hernández and Wong offer the Mariners offensive upgrades over what they had at their respective positions a year ago.

At any rate, plenty of time to kick that topic around. That’s not the point of this article. Let’s take a look at how the 26-man roster could shake out at the end of spring training and in advance of Opening Day at T-Mobile Park on March 30.

Catchers (2)
In: Cal Raleigh, Tom Murphy

Others on the 40-man roster: Cooper Hummel (C/OF)

The Mariners will try to be careful not to run Raleigh into the ground, but it will be tough to keep his bat (not to mention how he handles the pitching staff) out of the lineup. Raleigh had a 4.2 fWAR season in 2022 and we should see more offensive production moving forward with the elimination of the shift (most left-handed pull hitters will, but Raleigh, in particular, should). Murphy is a more than capable backup and can handle the staff well, even if he hasn’t played since May 6 (shoulder surgery). With the addition of Tommy La Stella, the Mariners’ bench options get tight, which means that Hummel — who can play the outfield and has added catching to his toolbox — will likely begin the season in Triple A, where he can gain more catching reps. The club’s catching situation looks to be in, er, pretty good hands.


The addition of La Stella changes the infield depth chart some, even if most of his starts will come as a DH. (Isaiah J. Downing / USA Today)
Infielders (6)
In: Ty France, Kolten Wong, J.P. Crawford, Eugenio Suárez, Dylan Moore, Tommy La Stella

Others on the 40-man: Evan White

Not a whole lot of surprises or drama here, as France (first base), Wong (second base), Crawford (shortstop) and Suárez (third base) should log plenty of innings in 2023. Wong, a Gold Glove winner in 2020, had an uncharacteristically poor defensive season in 2022, though he could benefit from the elimination of shifts and a few morning sessions in Arizona with Mariners infield guru Perry Hill. Crawford posted minus-4 defensive runs saved last season, but he had been steady defensively prior to that. As for giving these guys a day off, which is important over the long haul of a 162-game season, expect to see Moore at second base against left-handed pitching. The hope is the injuries that La Stella has dealt with the past two seasons are behind him, so much so that Seattle can rely on him to occasionally fill in for Suárez and France. This might not amount to many games in the field, but La Stella will certainly get at-bats against right-handed pitchers as the club’s designated hitter.

Outfielders (5)
In: Julio Rodríguez, Teoscar Hernández, Sam Haggerty, AJ Pollock, Jarred Kelenic

Others on the 40-man: Taylor Trammell, Cade Marlowe, Jonatan Clase, Hummel (C/OF)

Much like the team’s infield, there shouldn’t be a lot of surprises here — Hernández in right, Rodríguez in center and a combination of Kelenic (vs. right-handed pitchers) and Pollock (facing lefties) in left field. Pollock is capable of just winning this job outright, as Kelenic will have to perform better than he has for his first 500 big-league at-bats (minus-2 WAR) to make the roster. It’s a pivotal season for the 23-year-old, who has certainly shown flashes of the player the Mariners think he can be. Haggerty is more than just a fan favorite. He can produce and is valuable in a fourth (or fifth) outfielder kind of way. He had a 1.5 fWAR 2022 season and 13 steals. Maybe Trammell gets hot in spring? Maybe Hummel can catch and hit and forces his way onto the team? We’ll see, but I think this group is pretty much set.

Starting pitchers (5)
In: Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Robbie Ray, Marco Gonzales

Others on the 40-man: Chris Flexen, Prelander Berroa, Easton McGee, Juan Then

The Mariners certainly got a lot of mileage — and performance — out of their starting rotation in 2023. There was a lot of good fortune here, as well, in terms of keeping the entire rotation healthy the entire season. That just doesn’t happen that often. The team has depth, as Flexen is still here (I know, I know) and prospects like Bryce Miller, Emerson Hancock and Taylor Dollard aren’t far off from being major-league ready. Castillo, man, what can you say? He exceeded all expectations after coming over from the Reds. We all remember Ray from the Yordan Alvarez home run in the postseason, but his xERA (3.60) was essentially the same as when he won the Cy Young in 2021 (3.59). Another season with the two-seamer should help him. Kirby is going to win a Cy Young someday. There, I said it. Gilbert might, as well. Those two will be brought along slowly during spring training after big workloads in 2022, but will be ready for five or six innings when the regular season begins. Gonzales is the ancient Mariner at this point and he might have to fend off Flexen and some of the aforementioned prospects to keep his spot in this rotation. Can’t wait for Cactus League play when Miller pops a hole in Raleigh’s catcher’s glove with his fastball.

Relief pitchers (8)
In: Matt Brash, Diego Castillo, Matt Festa, Trevor Gott, Andrés Muñoz, Penn Murfee, Paul Sewald, Justin Topa

Others on the 40-man: Isaiah Campbell, Chris Clarke, Gabe Speier, Brennan Bernardino, J.B. Bukauskas

This group will look a little different in 2023, as Erik Swanson was sent to the Great White North in order to get Hernández. He’ll be missed, but if you remember the postseason, the Mariners didn’t call on him nearly at all, as they rode Brash, Sewald and Muñoz hard when they needed an out. Brash, I still feel, is going to start at some point — 2023 or beyond — but for now has the kind of swing-and-miss stuff managers dream of. Same goes for Muñoz, who had foot surgery after the season. You might not see much of him or Sewald (minor clean-up of his heel and elbow) early on during spring training, but relievers don’t need much work to get ready. Both should be fine for Opening Day. Murfee was a revelation in 2023. Newcomers Gott and Topa add some high octane. I guess the question is: Will Flexen be a part of this group if he’s not dealt before Opening Day? And if that’s the case, who gets bumped?
dt

Pharmabro
Posts: 3750
Joined: Sun Nov 22, 2020 8:32 am

Re: Roster prediction from Brock

Post by Pharmabro » Fri Jan 27, 2023 3:56 am

Looks about right.

User avatar
D-train
Posts: 67964
Joined: Mon Apr 29, 2019 1:33 am
Location: Quincy, MA

Re: Roster prediction from Brock

Post by D-train » Fri Jan 27, 2023 11:39 am

He parrots this straight from Jerry like a 162 game season, which has been in place for 61 years is some whole new paradigm. Good little obedient beat writer, Corey.
As for giving these guys a day off, which is important over the long haul of a 162-game season,
dt

User avatar
D-train
Posts: 67964
Joined: Mon Apr 29, 2019 1:33 am
Location: Quincy, MA

Re: Roster prediction from Brock

Post by D-train » Fri Jan 27, 2023 11:44 am

Crazy thing is that the Athletic has ZERO affiliation with the M's yet that piece feels like it was written by Jerry's PR bitch.
dt

User avatar
Donn Beach
Posts: 13264
Joined: Thu May 02, 2019 1:06 am

Re: Roster prediction from Brock

Post by Donn Beach » Fri Jan 27, 2023 12:24 pm

You think giving guys a day off is some sort of radical dipoto concept?

User avatar
D-train
Posts: 67964
Joined: Mon Apr 29, 2019 1:33 am
Location: Quincy, MA

Re: Roster prediction from Brock

Post by D-train » Fri Jan 27, 2023 12:32 pm

Donn Beach wrote:
Fri Jan 27, 2023 12:24 pm
You think giving guys a day off is some sort of radical dipoto concept?
Giving a 28 yo elite world class athlete a game off to rest every single week and then going on a radio show to proclaim how brilliant you are about it is highly unusual.

https://sports.mynorthwest.com/1730644/ ... workloads/

17 SSs played more than 140 games and those that didn't were likely injured for significant amounts of time.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx? ... 1&sort=3,d
dt

User avatar
D-train
Posts: 67964
Joined: Mon Apr 29, 2019 1:33 am
Location: Quincy, MA

Re: Roster prediction from Brock

Post by D-train » Fri Jan 27, 2023 12:50 pm

I shouldn't complain about it though because I would much rather see Moore in the lineup than JP.
dt

User avatar
D-train
Posts: 67964
Joined: Mon Apr 29, 2019 1:33 am
Location: Quincy, MA

Re: Roster prediction from Brock

Post by D-train » Fri Jan 27, 2023 1:18 pm

If the rotation remains healthy, Dipoto believes the Mariners have built-in help thanks to what he called the “under the radar importance” of veterans Robbie Ray, Marco Gonzales and Chris Flexen.

“These guys can go out there and churn innings,” he said. “You are going to throw about 1,450 innings, and when you can get a Ray, Gonzales or Flexen who can go and take out 185 innings to 200 of those innings
I guess Flex and Marco won't get traded because they need to give us 200 innings...
dt

User avatar
Donn Beach
Posts: 13264
Joined: Thu May 02, 2019 1:06 am

Re: Roster prediction from Brock

Post by Donn Beach » Fri Jan 27, 2023 1:18 pm

. Crawford, who has played more games at shortstop than all but Dansby Swanson and Trea Turner over the past three seasons.
Is that true?

harmony
Posts: 1350
Joined: Thu May 02, 2019 4:59 pm
Location: Portland OR

Re: Roster prediction from Brock

Post by harmony » Fri Jan 27, 2023 1:55 pm

Donn Beach wrote:
Fri Jan 27, 2023 1:18 pm
. Crawford, who has played more games at shortstop than all but Dansby Swanson and Trea Turner over the past three seasons.
Is that true?
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx? ... 1&sort=3,d

Post Reply