Fresh look at a Bryan Reynolds trade with updated values

GL_Storm
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Re: Fresh look at a Bryan Reynolds trade with updated values

Post by GL_Storm » Sat Jan 28, 2023 10:14 pm

D-train wrote:
Sat Jan 28, 2023 10:04 pm
GL_Storm wrote:
Sat Jan 28, 2023 9:30 pm
D-train wrote:
Sat Jan 28, 2023 7:24 pm
Yeah or Nay. Would you do this trade? I would.
Nope
Which one kills it for you, Harry?
Yeah, I don't quite get why so many people want to trade Harry Ford. It's weird. It's not just you, but constantly on twitter when everyone with a pulse was proposing Bryan Reynolds trades. But also, the overall volume is just way too much. I think when Reynolds gets traded, it's likely that we'll all be underwhelmed by the package.

Here is Ford's month by month season breakdown. He started slow, but June, July, and August were pretty darn good. So far, this seems like a really good draft pick and I just don't get the ease with which people just toss him into trade proposals.
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D-train
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Re: Fresh look at a Bryan Reynolds trade with updated values

Post by D-train » Sat Jan 28, 2023 10:25 pm

GL_Storm wrote:
Sat Jan 28, 2023 10:14 pm
D-train wrote:
Sat Jan 28, 2023 10:04 pm
GL_Storm wrote:
Sat Jan 28, 2023 9:30 pm


Nope
Which one kills it for you, Harry?
Yeah, I don't quite get why so many people want to trade Harry Ford. It's weird. It's not just you, but constantly on twitter when everyone with a pulse was proposing Bryan Reynolds trades. But also, the overall volume is just way too much. I think when Reynolds gets traded, it's likely that we'll all be underwhelmed by the package.

Here is Ford's month by month season breakdown. He started slow, but June, July, and August were pretty darn good. So far, this seems like a really good draft pick and I just don't get the ease with which people just toss him into trade proposals.
It's not that people want to trade him, its that he HAS to be included because of his value. I am looking dumb for pissing on the pick and happy about it.
dt

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Sexymarinersfan
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Re: Fresh look at a Bryan Reynolds trade with updated values

Post by Sexymarinersfan » Sat Jan 28, 2023 10:45 pm

D-train wrote:
Sat Jan 28, 2023 7:24 pm
Yeah or Nay. Would you do this trade? I would.
Brash, Miller, Ford, a Comp pick, and Locklear? That'd be a tough pill to swallow.

GL_Storm
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Re: Fresh look at a Bryan Reynolds trade with updated values

Post by GL_Storm » Sat Jan 28, 2023 10:59 pm

Sexymarinersfan wrote:
Sat Jan 28, 2023 10:45 pm
D-train wrote:
Sat Jan 28, 2023 7:24 pm
Yeah or Nay. Would you do this trade? I would.
Brash, Miller, Ford, a Comp pick, and Locklear? That'd be a tough pill to swallow.
I'm real interested to see what Locklear does this year and I'll be looking for any snippets of info out there that they've rebuilt his swing.

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Bil522
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Re: Fresh look at a Bryan Reynolds trade with updated values

Post by Bil522 » Sun Jan 29, 2023 3:31 am

Pharmabro wrote:
Sat Jan 28, 2023 8:53 pm
D-train wrote:
Sat Jan 28, 2023 8:41 pm
Pharmabro wrote:
Sat Jan 28, 2023 8:36 pm
Reynolds value should have taken a bigger hit he is not a center fielder and his OPS+ was in the 120s last season. He is not Juan Soto, Judge, or Tatis who even if they are not at a premium defensive position demand value as premium level bats. Reynolds has demostrated he is neither. The Values this still thinks he is a center fielder with a premium bat.

With your proposed package you are basically giving away 4 top 100 picks
Brash, Miller, comp round B, and our current #1, in Ford and a decent throw in who those idiots value as more than the Comp Rd B pick
Locklear was the #58 pick in 2022 vs a top 30 pick coming up and millions in cash for picks. I would value the Comp B at something like double Locklear.

Reynolds is being valued as if he is a franchise player and he is just a dude. He is Haniger, Teo, just a dude.

He is a good player and not a great player. That is a bigger package than better players have been traded for in the past. Overpay. A year ago I could have dismissed 2021 way below average D in CF as bad-luck or nagging injuries, etc. AND coming off a 145 OPS+ in CF I was like that could be a guy that develops power and walks as he ages and a up the middle guy with a 150 -160 OPS+? That is our MVP candidate! Now 2 years in a row CF D that clearly indicates he should be a in a corner and a OPS+ that is OK for a corner 126 OPS+?

Nah.
Reasonable opinion but the only one that would hurt near terms is Brash who is probably a reliever. A good one but still just a BP arm.
Brash is my 2nd best BP guy behind Munoz who jumped to 50-something million in value. I think a few of us here know values of some of our pieces a little better than an outside viewer.
To the outsider Brash was a .1 WAR guy with a 4.44 ERA But to me he is an electric arm in the BP who had 43K in 30 innings, a 1.97 FIP, 2.35 ERA and is not at all far behind Munoz
2022 65 innings 2.49 ERA 2.04 FIP, 96K/65 innings (Munoz)

Oh and Miller is a stud prospect. If the package was Miller, Ford, CompB and a couple of no-name top 30 types it would still be an over-pay but I would probably do-it. But reluctantly.
No. I am squarely in Pharm's camp on this one. It was like he was reading my mind....which should scare the shit out of him!!!!

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AZOldDawg
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Re: Fresh look at a Bryan Reynolds trade with updated values

Post by AZOldDawg » Sun Jan 29, 2023 4:28 am

One has to wonder if Reynolds was pitched around in Pittsburg. He would have the potential to be a significant offensive improvement for us placed in the right spot in our lineup.

Seattle or Bust
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Re: Fresh look at a Bryan Reynolds trade with updated values

Post by Seattle or Bust » Sun Jan 29, 2023 4:37 am

I'd probably send them Ford, Hancock, Dollard, Trammell + the comp pick.

Trade gives Pitt 2x pitchers who will likely be MLB ready by July... if their aim is to contend sooner than later then their pitching needs a quick overhaul. Trammell is a replacement for Reynolds (albeit not a great one... but they need someone young w. control). Ford is the big prize to help build their farm and future outfield gem.

Would put us about 20 points short on the simulator... but again, this assumes Pitt values Hancock higher than the sim does. Same goes for Dollard. Surprising that the kid went 16-2 w. a 2.25 ERA 0.951 WHIP and only has a value of 5... especially when he's close to MLB ready.

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Sexymarinersfan
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Re: Fresh look at a Bryan Reynolds trade with updated values

Post by Sexymarinersfan » Sun Jan 29, 2023 5:14 am

Seattle or Bust wrote:
Sun Jan 29, 2023 4:37 am
I'd probably send them Ford, Hancock, Dollard, Trammell + the comp pick.

Trade gives Pitt 2x pitchers who will likely be MLB ready by July... if their aim is to contend sooner than later then their pitching needs a quick overhaul. Trammell is a replacement for Reynolds (albeit not a great one... but they need someone young w. control). Ford is the big prize to help build their farm and future outfield gem.

Would put us about 20 points short on the simulator... but again, this assumes Pitt values Hancock higher than the sim does. Same goes for Dollard. Surprising that the kid went 16-2 w. a 2.25 ERA 0.951 WHIP and only has a value of 5... especially when he's close to MLB ready.
Problem is that Pittsburgh wants TWO Top 100 pitchers to front any trade package. And none are included in you're offer. But that's about the MAX I would go as well. I'm not as high on Reynolds as Pitt's asking price is for him.

Pharmabro
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Re: Fresh look at a Bryan Reynolds trade with updated values

Post by Pharmabro » Mon Jan 30, 2023 6:42 am

GL_Storm wrote:
Sat Jan 28, 2023 10:59 pm
Sexymarinersfan wrote:
Sat Jan 28, 2023 10:45 pm
D-train wrote:
Sat Jan 28, 2023 7:24 pm
Yeah or Nay. Would you do this trade? I would.
Brash, Miller, Ford, a Comp pick, and Locklear? That'd be a tough pill to swallow.
I'm real interested to see what Locklear does this year and I'll be looking for any snippets of info out there that they've rebuilt his swing.
I heard he was a really good college bat. They had a a bit about him being a guy to watch. I don't remember if it was on you tube or an article but if I find it I will post it here.

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