Where do we stand on JP?

[Donn Beach]

If you read the article it gets into that, comparison to last season.

To be sure, he’s had other good stretches. In the first half of 2021, when we were pushing his case for the All-Star Game, he relied on a lot of flares dropping in between the infielders and outfielders, which requires a precise launch angle that’s hard to replicate. And the best stretch of his career was his first 26 games last year, when J.P. put up a 202 wRC+. But I think too much of that was buoyed by good fortune. Even over that stretch, he had four home runs, which in retrospect looks like a fluke, and a .387 BABIP.

I’d take 2023 J.P. over either of those hitters because he seems to have leveled up at a real skill. During the first half of 2021, his soft-contact rate was 20.2%, ranking 126th out of 132 qualified hitters (which is to say, only six hitters made more soft contact); during early 2022, he was at 27.8%, 169th out of 174.

This year, his 14.1% soft-contact rate puts him at 72nd out of 168. Exit velocity starts to stabilize around 40 batted balls, and J.P. is already at 92, so there’s every reason to think this is real. Even if he’s had hotter stretches, I’ll still take 2023 Crawford because this version looks built to last. Adding those improvements to his already elite walk rate has earned him a promotion to the leadoff spot, and that seems likely to stick

[D-train]

If you read the article it gets into that, comparison to last season.

To be sure, he’s had other good stretches. In the first half of 2021, when we were pushing his case for the All-Star Game, he relied on a lot of flares dropping in between the infielders and outfielders, which requires a precise launch angle that’s hard to replicate. And the best stretch of his career was his first 26 games last year, when J.P. put up a 202 wRC+. But I think too much of that was buoyed by good fortune. Even over that stretch, he had four home runs, which in retrospect looks like a fluke, and a .387 BABIP.

I’d take 2023 J.P. over either of those hitters because he seems to have leveled up at a real skill. During the first half of 2021, his soft-contact rate was 20.2%, ranking 126th out of 132 qualified hitters (which is to say, only six hitters made more soft contact); during early 2022, he was at 27.8%, 169th out of 174.

This year, his 14.1% soft-contact rate puts him at 72nd out of 168. Exit velocity starts to stabilize around 40 batted balls, and J.P. is already at 92, so there’s every reason to think this is real. Even if he’s had hotter stretches, I’ll still take 2023 Crawford because this version looks built to last. Adding those improvements to his already elite walk rate has earned him a promotion to the leadoff spot, and that seems likely to stick

Yes, a .725 OPS is certainly more sustainable than a 202 wRC+. I would say that is what he is a .700-.725 OPS guy which is fine playing at T mobile and good D at SS.

[Donn Beach]

It's the .360 OBP. He is a disciplined hitter with an excellent eye and bat to ball skills. His skill set fits leadoff more than cleanup