Fixing the M's offense?

[Pharmabro]

"and compared to the price that ATL gave up for Olson:
Cusick #20
Joey Estes #21 in A's top 30
Shea Langeliers former top 100
Pache former top 100 that oakland traded after he sucked in Oak

A comp would be a package of TT, Pinto, Mike Morales, and say Prelander"

How did this sneak by lol.

That trade package wouldn't be close to the comp.

I would like Goldschmidt and India... but I don't see the incentive for the Reds to trade a good, young player. He's under team control for 4 more years. Goldschmidt only becomes available if the Cards don't turn it around. 3-game winning streaks and Arenado figuring it out don't help our cause.

Edit: I will say, the Reds do have a lot of middle infielders who are near MLB ready... maybe they trade India for pitching depth knowing they're 2-3 years out from being competitive.

Explain? on mlb.com it has the two prospect pitchers as the A's #20 and 21, Pinto and Morales are the M's # 19 and 20 that looks equal to me.
TT has been showing promise the last 2 years and he was a top 100 peaked @ #11 and came into the game today with a 116 OPS+ >>>>> vs Pache in 2020-2022 in over 300 ABS went, 33, -6, and 35 OPS+ peak as #7 prospect rank
Finally Shae L. Peak prospect rating #54 He has been a 105 OPS+ hitter as a DH/C >>>>>vs Prelander

I guess Prelander never cracked the top 100 but the two filler would equal.
I think TT has a performance edge over what Pache demonstrated before and post trade in Oakland.
So. I guess we could sub in Woo, Ford, or Hancock.

The biggest point is that the price should not be super high to get the expensive Paul G who is 35 and unlike Olson will not be signing an extension.

Pache was the number 12 prospect in baseball (MLB.com) in 2021. Langaliers was 73. Pache and Langaliers were trade to Oakland in March of '22.

Trammell has been floundering in the majors for 3 years now. He has a .173 BA in 103 games. He is a fallen star and holds virtually no trade value. Both Pache and Langaliers had basically never seen MLB action (Pache like 20 games) when they were traded and still held good value.

Pinto and Morales might be fine comps for players that were traded in the back end of the trade. But Trammell doesn't anywhere near the value of Pache or Langaliers and Berroa isn't even on the radar.

You're looking at the very least at something like Harry Ford + Emerson Hancock + Pinto + Morales for Goldschmidt.

He had lost his top 100 status by the time of the trade 72 PAs .119 .157 .209 .366 -4 OPS+, that is why he was not rated in 2022. Pache after flopping around in Oakland was traded for a BP arm with over a 4.59 ERA in AA who is not even in the A's top 30. Not to mention that Olson had 2 cheap Arby years left vs Goldy who is paid 26M per. That is about as much as Olson would earn over his last 2 years. Therefor Olson had a lot more value as a cheap 27 year old allstar vs a 36 year old 26M dollar a year allstar.

Money, and age mean something. Pauls mlb trade value says 28M, I believe I remember Olson's was about 40's M I believe it was 46.8M if I remember correctly. I scanned our forum record for 10 pages and I saw that it was listed as 40's but did not confirm the exact number. I believe most of us here were in disbelief that the Braves got in there with 1 top 100 and a fallen prospect. If you don't believe me try to find posts about how awesome the A's getting Pache was.

Taylor T? Floundering?
2021 71 OPS+
2022 98 OPS+
2023 .820 OPS

That looks like a player on the rise. baseball trade values is a very what have you done for me lately type of thing. You are welcome to your opinions. I just think you done appreciate that Olson had about 20M more in value for obvious reasons. And no, the M's are not going to ignore the age, and the money.

[Seattle or Bust]

Explain? on mlb.com it has the two prospect pitchers as the A's #20 and 21, Pinto and Morales are the M's # 19 and 20 that looks equal to me.
TT has been showing promise the last 2 years and he was a top 100 peaked @ #11 and came into the game today with a 116 OPS+ >>>>> vs Pache in 2020-2022 in over 300 ABS went, 33, -6, and 35 OPS+ peak as #7 prospect rank
Finally Shae L. Peak prospect rating #54 He has been a 105 OPS+ hitter as a DH/C >>>>>vs Prelander

I guess Prelander never cracked the top 100 but the two filler would equal.
I think TT has a performance edge over what Pache demonstrated before and post trade in Oakland.
So. I guess we could sub in Woo, Ford, or Hancock.

The biggest point is that the price should not be super high to get the expensive Paul G who is 35 and unlike Olson will not be signing an extension.

Pache was the number 12 prospect in baseball (MLB.com) in 2021. Langaliers was 73. Pache and Langaliers were trade to Oakland in March of '22.

Trammell has been floundering in the majors for 3 years now. He has a .173 BA in 103 games. He is a fallen star and holds virtually no trade value. Both Pache and Langaliers had basically never seen MLB action (Pache like 20 games) when they were traded and still held good value.

Pinto and Morales might be fine comps for players that were traded in the back end of the trade. But Trammell doesn't anywhere near the value of Pache or Langaliers and Berroa isn't even on the radar.

You're looking at the very least at something like Harry Ford + Emerson Hancock + Pinto + Morales for Goldschmidt.

He had lost his top 100 status by the time of the trade 72 PAs .119 .157 .209 .366 -4 OPS+, that is why he was not rated in 2022. Pache after flopping around in Oakland was traded for a BP arm with over a 4.59 ERA in AA who is not even in the A's top 30. Not to mention that Olson had 2 cheap Arby years left vs Goldy who is paid 26M per. That is about as much as Olson would earn over his last 2 years. Therefor Olson had a lot more value as a cheap 27 year old allstar vs a 36 year old 26M dollar a year allstar.

Money, and age mean something. Pauls mlb trade value says 28M, I believe I remember Olson's was about 40's M I believe it was 46.8M if I remember correctly. I scanned our forum record for 10 pages and I saw that it was listed as 40's but did not confirm the exact number. I believe most of us here were in disbelief that the Braves got in there with 1 top 100 and a fallen prospect. If you don't believe me try to find posts about how awesome the A's getting Pache was.

Taylor T? Floundering?
2021 71 OPS+
2022 98 OPS+
2023 .820 OPS

That looks like a player on the rise. baseball trade values is a very what have you done for me lately type of thing. You are welcome to your opinions. I just think you done appreciate that Olson had about 20M more in value for obvious reasons. And no, the M's are not going to ignore the age, and the money.

Re Pache: He was ranked #84 and #71 by Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus on the 2022 lists. Trammell hasn't been rated on any list since '21 and has 3 years in the majors. There's no way you think they hold similar trade value to when Pache was traded.

Re Trammell: Bro. He's hitting .160. He's K'd 9 times in his last 17 AB's. His OPS is inflated due to a couple of homers in a low sample size. He's not Joey Gallo. And he's not on the rise until he proves he can hit above .200 and not K at a high clip. He hasn't been able to put the ball in play nearly enough to prove that he's worthy of an OF roster spot, let alone have trade value.

If you want to reference MLBTV values... here's your trade



Here is the A's/Braves trade:



... I mean.

[Pharmabro]

Here you go: #7,9,10, and 11

The values are way off on MLBtrade values. Ideally you want the headliner to be min 50% to 70% but Seattle does not have the guy 13-17M

It is a no on Ford-Miller-Young as the headliner.

Remember: Olson was nearly twice as valued as Goldy.

Pache was valued as less than a top 100 by a long margin the #100 prospect Schmitt is valued at 13.4M.

The values thing is strange as well. JK was down to like almost no value after being as high as 48M, and now it says he is near 30M again.

I think they are a little slow to rebound on TT. He is a 5-tool guy he can play CF, and RF. He has the good OBP boost .100, he has decent ISO over .200, he just needs to improve the batting average part of that.

And, again in 43 games in 2022 he hit for a 98 OPS+ and a league average bat essentially. And this year he has a .820 OPS in 30 PAs if that continues his value will sky rocket

Anyhow we disagree.

Cheers.

[Pharmabro]

This not a perfect package by my view but our side would just be giving up 1 really nice asset.
#3,9,19,20, And again Young is too high in my opinion but I don't like Dollard at all but he does add another top 10 to the 2 outer range top 20 guys.

But, I think we need to help the offense now. I know guys like Saurez, Teo, Julio, Cal, Wong, France, are all or almost all likely to regress to the mean. Cal's big game has him at a 116 OPS+ and that is just short of his 121 in 2022. So regression is happening but adding a premium priced win-now guy in Goldy does to the offense what Castillo did for the staff last year.

[Donn Beach]

Thing is you have a DH, Teo. What the team is lacking is an outfielder. This is what I was trying to explain before. Get a legit guy that could start in right field, Teo might get the majority of the dh at bats or maybe the new guy does and you could cycle other players through dh as well. That gives you additional outfield depth which is needed and I believe a more flexible roster than adding Goldschmidt

[D-train]

Here it in red:

By Ryan Divish
Seattle Times staff reporter
BOSTON — Former manager Lloyd McClendon used to say 50 games was his benchmark to determine success, while current manager Scott Servais has often said it takes at least 40 games to determine what a team is and what it can be.

Of course, if a team is playing well to start the season, managers don’t usually have to offer up such logic or numbers because they aren’t likely to say the success isn’t sustainable.

Though to his credit, when the 2019 step-back team started off 13-2, Servais cautioned plenty of people that his team couldn’t or wouldn’t keep winning games with how it was playing. That team, which wasn’t expected to be good, went 7-18 over the next 25 games and ended up losing 94 games on the season.


On Monday, the Mariners played their 41st game of the season, routing the Red Sox, 10-1, in what was probably one of their most impressive and well-rounded wins of the season. They got their typical outstanding starting pitching, clean bullpen work, strong offensive showings from players expected to be producers and quality defense.

But now past his 40-game yardstick, Servais and the players will admit that there hasn’t been enough of those sort of performances in the first quarter of a much-anticipated 2023 season filled with lofty expectations.

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The Mariners went into Tuesday with a 21-20 record, which put them in fourth place in the American League West and four games behind the division-leading Rangers (25-16).

“Would I like to have won a few more games and be six or seven games over .500? Absolutely.” Servais said. “Do I think we have a good run in us here over the next 40 games? I really do.”

The Mariners have not had strong starts to their last few seasons, which is why Servais’ 40-game reference seems so familiar.

In 2021, Seattle was 21-20 in the first 41 games and finished with 90 wins. Last season, the Mariners were abysmal for the first two months of the season. They were 17-24 at the 41-game mark and hit a low point of 25-35 before ripping off a 29-10 stretch going into the All-Star break.

The hallmark of the previous two successful seasons was the Mariners’ ability to win one-run games. That hasn’t carried over to this season.

The Mariners are 4-11 in one-run games and 2-5 in extra-inning games.

“The reason we didn’t win a lot of close games, we didn’t get the big hit,” Servais said. “We weren’t scoring any runs. So hopefully the offense starts to be more consistent.”

The Mariners offense has been anything but consistent in the first 41 games.

What word would the players use?

“I wouldn’t say disappointed,” said first baseman Ty France. “I don’t even want to use the word frustrated. But we just know that we’re capable of so much more. You’ve seen our starters come out and give up one run and us not back it. That’s happened multiple times. That’s where the frustration comes from because we know we’re better than that. We know we are a good hitting team. All it takes is for one good game and we can hit our stride.”

The Mariners’ outburst of runs and homers in the 10-1 victory on Monday will help make their overall offensive numbers slightly more palatable.

Seattle is averaging 4.49 runs per game, which is slightly below the MLB average of 4.58. The Mariners have an overall slash line of .229/.307/.380. The batting average is among the worst in the league, with only the Guardians and Padres worse. The on-base percentage is the sixth lowest while the slugging percentage is in the bottom third. Perhaps most galling for Servais is the number of strikeouts. The Mariners had struck out 398 times before Tuesday’s game; only the Twins and Athletic were worse at 399.

Seattle’s situational hitting has also been substandard. The Mariners have had 80 plate appearances with a runner on third and fewer than two outs and scored 33 runs. That scoring percentage of 41.3% is fourth lowest in MLB. Of Seattle’s 64 plate appearances with a runner on second and no outs, only 21 runs have scored. The 32.8% success rate is the worst in MLB.


“Obviously, if you hit a ton of homers, you don’t have to be as efficient with runners in scoring position,” Servais said. “But good offenses, that’s what they do. The guys put the ball in play and they’re able to take balls to the opposite field. The big RBI players in the history of our game are guys who use the whole field. When they do that, they are tough outs.”

Servais admitted multiple times that his team can be too easy to pitch to.

“We strike out too much,” he said.

While Jarred Kelenic and J.P. Crawford have been more productive than expected, Julio Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez and Teoscar Hernandez have underachieved. FanGraphs’ weight runs created plus (wRC+) is a rate metric that tries to determine total offensive value from a player, with the league average being 100.

Only Kelenic (148), France (118), Cal Raleigh (116) and Crawford (114) are above league average, while Rodriguez (94), Suarez (93) and Hernandez (93) are just below. The Mariners need — and expect — that trio to be much better than league average. Rodriguez posted a 146 wRC+ last season and Hernandez had a 129 wRC+.

“We need these guys to kind of do what they’ve done throughout their career,” Servais said. “If they do, we’re going to be in a really good spot with the guys who have already stepped up.”

And the pitching? Well, it’s been outstanding. Per FanGraphs, Seattle’s pitchers have produced an 8.9 wins above replacement (fWAR). The next-closest team is the Twins with a 6.7 fWAR The Mariners pitching staff also led MLB in earned-run average (3.24), fielding-independent pitching (3.20), soft-contact percentage (19.5), swing-and-miss percentage (49.2), zone percentage (44.4), fewest barrels (55) and barrel rate (5.3%).

“As long as we continue to pitch like we can, we’re going to be in a lot of these games,” Servais said. “Hopefully, the offense starts to be more consistent. We’ll look up after the next 40-game stretch and maybe we will be seven or eight games over, 500. I’d be surprised if we weren’t. I like our team. I liked it from Day 1. I think we’re a better team now than we were last year on paper. We’ve not done it yet. But the upside of this group is pretty high.”

[D-train]

Scoring less than half your runners from third with less than 2 outs is a pathetic joke.

[AZOldDawg]

Scoring less than half your runners from third with less than 2 outs is a pathetic joke.

That's mostly due to our horrible strike out rate which just kills innings.

[ddraig]

"Seattle’s situational hitting has also been substandard. The Mariners have had 80 plate appearances with a runner on third and fewer than two outs and scored 33 runs. That scoring percentage of 41.3% is fourth lowest in MLB. Of Seattle’s 64 plate appearances with a runner on second and no outs, only 21 runs have scored. The 32.8% success rate is the worst in MLB."

Before last season, I used to joke that a M's runner on third with no outs may as well dig a firepit, start a fire, bring out a camp chair and a cooler, and make s'mores because you absolutely KNEW he was going nowhere. Seems old habits die hard.

[Millikin]

Scoring less than half your runners from third with less than 2 outs is a pathetic joke.

That's mostly due to our horrible strike out rate which just kills innings.

Some consistent, reliable, high-average contact-hitters would certainly help.

If we have a guy on 3rd and no outs, I'd rather have a hitter with a .310 batting average at the plate than Trammell with his .560 slugging percentage (and .160 BA).