Early look at MLB and Japanese FAs

[bpj]

Here is a pretty good look at Tyler O'Neil's trade value. He has a hard time staying on the field
https://www.scoopswithdannymac.com/bern ... ead-hurts/

He's definitely the type that would fit in to their play every other day or two strategy.

I like Moore/Oneill/Trammell/Marlowe/Canzone (or Kelenic, whatever) as the corner platoons, since they seem intent on finding out what they've got with the youngsters.

As dt says, maybe Bellinger fits with his versatility either way. I'm skeptical of him on a contract over 1 year, but who knows.

[Donn Beach]

O'Neil fits their budget. I think they are intent on filling positions internally like how you listed. I can't imagine them giving out a contract like Bellinger would command. I think they are into short term solutions

[GL_Storm]

I think they'll make some sort of offer on Ohtani and it's impossible to know how serious they are about that. But if they miss on Ohtani, I don't think there's any real chance there's a plan B wrt significant free agent acquisitions. Maybe they'll bring in a third or fourth tier guy to fill a hole or something.

This weekend is pretty much sold out as will most of the games the rest of the season. That's almost $10M in revenue per 3 game series. If they don't invest that in at least one top tier FA they can go F themselves...

I think what we're seeing right now is the plan, basically. Maybe there's an effort to sign Ohtani which they've been planning on for two years or something, a big organizational move. But obviously none of us here know that for sure or how committed they are to bringing him in. It's hard for me to imagine them going even to $400 million, when $500 million is the number that gets talked about as a starting point. Honestly, I just don't see it, but maybe they'll surprise us.

But I think they want to win with Julio, Cal, JP, and (maybe) JK, a core of good to great starting pitchers, a bullpen that gets recharged every year, and young players up from the farm system that will provide cheap production to offset the escalating salaries of Julio, Cal, Kirby, etc. I think that's the plan, more or less.

[D-train]

I don't think Bellinger will be worth half what he gets paid so I wouldn't be making him much of an offer. I wouldn't bet on him to put up an OPS over .750 as a Mariner.

O'Neill is on one year, ~$5M and had a falling out with his team, so I think he's an actual option.

Not really about letting them off easy this offseason. I just don't think anyone's worth paying for on the free agent market besides Ohtani. Alonso would be the best trade target.

But a package of Goldschmidt and O'Neill may be about the best we can hope for imo. It's such a thin market.

Dipoto missed a huge opportunity to add bats the last two offseasons. Now the market is barren.

OK, so this is not without controversy, but I would go all in on Matt Chapman next year. He'll be a FA and only 30 years old. He has had a slightly less impressive defensive year with the Jays, but overall he is one of the best defensive 3B in the game (multiple gold and platinum glove winner). Moreover, his offense ticked up this year (.247/.428/.766) even though he only hit 15 dingers. But that's good for nearly 4 WAR this season - compare that to Geno's 1.7 WAR and slash line (.232/.388/.713) and you have a serious upgrade. He'd cost less than Arenado (less in the sense that it won't cost us anything in trade).

I don't know what to do with Geno, but I was sorry we missed out on Chapman 2 years ago - now that he'll be a FA, I'd say we see if we can bundle Geno in trade and lock in Chapman for 3 or 4 years. We've only got Geno for 1 more year before he has a club option and then free agency. I'd rather have Chapman at the hot corner. But that's just me.

He just has to shave that shitty little middle school mustache.

My first 2 thoughts are that they are going to consider the 3B box checked and that it would be tough to trade Geno given he is owed $11.3M next season. It is too much $ for a rebuilding team and his ~2 WAR isn't enough for a playoff team so who would want him. I would bet a lot of coin that Geno will be standing at 3B OD next season despite Chapman being a significant upgrade. They will focus on bigger holes imo.

[D-train]

O'Neil fits their budget. I think they are intent on filling positions internally like how you listed. I can't imagine them giving out a contract like Bellinger would command. I think they are into short term solutions

Agree and that is why we are scratching and clawing to make the playoffs despite there being 3x more teams making the playoffs than there were 30 years ago.

[D-train]

I think they'll make some sort of offer on Ohtani and it's impossible to know how serious they are about that. But if they miss on Ohtani, I don't think there's any real chance there's a plan B wrt significant free agent acquisitions. Maybe they'll bring in a third or fourth tier guy to fill a hole or something.

This weekend is pretty much sold out as will most of the games the rest of the season. That's almost $10M in revenue per 3 game series. If they don't invest that in at least one top tier FA they can go F themselves...

I think what we're seeing right now is the plan, basically. Maybe there's an effort to sign Ohtani which they've been planning on for two years or something, a big organizational move. But obviously none of us here know that for sure or how committed they are to bringing him in. It's hard for me to imagine them going even to $400 million, when $500 million is the number that gets talked about as a starting point. Honestly, I just don't see it, but maybe they'll surprise us.

But I think they want to win with Julio, Cal, JP, and (maybe) JK, a core of good to great starting pitchers, a bullpen that gets recharged every year, and young players up from the farm system that will provide cheap production to offset the escalating salaries of Julio, Cal, Kirby, etc. I think that's the plan, more or less.

Agree and that is why we are scratching and clawing to make the playoffs despite there being 3x more teams making the playoffs than there were 30 years ago. (yes I just copied and pasted my reply to Donn)

[GL_Storm]

I think Tyler O'Neill makes a lot of sense as a buy-low candidate. Cards are probably going to blow things up and he'll be in his free agent year like Teo this year and you can probably get him for a similar or even lesser package. And if they trade for Alonso as well, the M's will (potentially) have a murderers row of right-handed power hitters.

And then in 2025 you'll have a bunch of guys knocking in AA and AAA knocking on the door.

[D-train]

I think Tyler O'Neill makes a lot of sense as a buy-low candidate. Cards are probably going to blow things up and he'll be in his free agent year like Teo this year and you can probably get him for a similar or even lesser package. And if they trade for Alonso as well, the M's will (potentially) have a murderers row of right-handed power hitters.

And then in 2025 you'll have a bunch of guys knocking in AA and AAA knocking on the door.

If they aren't named Edgar or Julio, I like LH hitter better. T Mobile is better for them and Most pitchers are RH.

[D-train]

What is the interest level in Rhys Hoskins? ACL surgery in March and will miss the entire season but FA this off season.

[bpj]

If they can't get Alonso or Ohtani I hope they avoid the market completely.

Everyone else is too big of a question mark imo.

This crew has been killing it since the break.

They need to get Dylan Moore more playing time. He has the same WAR in his 138 plate appearances as Ty France has in 600.

Jose Caballero has as much WAR in 250 plate appearances as Teoscar Hernandez does in 612.

Dipoto just needs to get out of his own way at this point. Stop making moves to make moves and let these guys play.

Teo:
612 PA, 25 HR, 65 R, 85 RBI, 6 SB, 2.0 WAR

France:
600 PA, 10 HR, 73 R, 56 RBI, 1 SB, 0.5 WAR

Caballero/Ford/Moore:
635 PA, 26 HR, 79 R, 76 RBI, 32 SB, 3.2 WAR

Are you concern Bellinger puts on an M's uni and goes in the tank again?

I think Bellinger turning back into a pumpkin would be a near certainty in Seattle, especially by the end of his contract.

Given the choice, Teoscars right handed bat fits the team better than Bellingers.

But, the guy I think fits best (without opening their wallets) would be a trade for Tyler O'Neill. He's not expensive. Which means he's not a risk to be given playing time he hasn't earned, which has to be a main concern with these bozos.

A right handed outfield bat to add to Kelenic/Marlowe/Trammell/Canzone that won't cost an arm and a leg and is a bounceback candidate on a team that may want to be rid of him..

I'd rather see them go after someone like Bellinger was last year, under the radar, cheap, not after his breakout.