By way of perspective, consider M's lucky

[Hy Feiber]

Of course, Castillo lost it all with the division on the line.

And the flat Stros don't much look like a playoff team.

But in all reality, the M's were fortunate to be that close that late.

Not that many mid 80s win team are in the thick of things, generally, it takes say, 90 wins.

But after all, the fact that Houston was even in the running, having lost their key leadoff guy, Altuve, for 69 games, and Mariner killer Alvarez, for 48, is telling.

The M's were without Marco and Ray, but that's offset by Houston's loss of McCullers and Garcia.

Take away JP and Julio for over a hundred games, and ??

Julio's Streak, and Collapse, were bizarre.

[mostonmike]

Not that many mid 80s win team are in the thick of things, generally, it takes say, 90 wins.

Agree with all of what you said. 90 wins is definitely the lowest bar you need to aim for and yet the Ms seems to set that to be the high level of their bandwidth target. Looks like they are happy with 82 (above .500) to 90 and that's going to lead to seasons like we have just seen.

However as well, I've noticed that there is definitely an issue with the schedule since interleague play and the '94 realignment. There is often a weak division every other year or so. This year its the AL Central with Minnesota coasting to the division with just 87 wins. The East & West are always more competitive and I can only see rare examples of them being clinched with less than 90.

Here's a list of divisions won by 88 wins or less since 1994.
2023 Minnesota (AL Central) 87 wins, 1 to play
2021 Atlanta (NL Central) 88 wins - won World Series
2015 Texas (AL West) 88 wins
2012 Detroit (AL Central) 88 wins - lost World Series
2009 Minnesota (AL Central) 87 wins
2008 LA (NL West) 84 wins
2007 Chicago (NL Central) 85 wins
2006 St Louis (NL Central) 83 wins
2003 Chicago (NL Central) 88 wins
2001 Atlanta (NL East) 88 wins
1997 Houston (NL Central) 84 wins
1997 Cleveland (AL Central) 86 wins
1996 St. Louis (NL Central) 88 wins
1995 Cincinnati (NL Central) 85 wins

I think since they reduced the number of division games this season from 76 to just 52 then we are going to see NFL, NBA style weird divisions where you will find a weak one each season from this point on. And like the list above, my guess is its often going to be the Central divisions. Only way to make it fair is to consider another restructure. Then again do we fancy being in the "West Conference" with LA, SF, SD?

[D-train]

I wonder if when they expand to 32 teams the replicate the NFL 8 x 4 format:

AL Northeast
NY
BOS
BALT
TOR

AL Midwest
Detroit
Cleveland
Minnesota
Chicago

AL South
Tampa Bay
Texas
KC
Houston

AL West
Seattle
Portland
LA Angels
Vegas

NL Northeast
Phillies
Mets
Washington
Pittsburgh

NL Midwest
Cubs
Reds
Brewers
Cardinals

NL South
Miami
Atlanta
Tennessee
Arizona

NL West
Dodgers
Padres
Giants
Rockies

[GL_Storm]

I wonder if when they expand to 32 teams the replicate the NFL 8 x 4 format:

AL Northeast
NY
BOS
BALT
TOR

AL Midwest
Detroit
Cleveland
Minnesota
Chicago

AL South
Tampa Bay
Texas
KC
Houston

AL West
Seattle
Portland
LA Angels
Vegas

NL Northeast
Phillies
Mets
Washington
Pittsburgh

NL Midwest
Cubs
Reds
Brewers
Cardinals

NL South
Miami
Atlanta
Tennessee
Arizona

NL West
Dodgers
Padres
Giants
Rockies

I suspect yes, they'll do something like this with 8 4-team divisions. Personally, I would rather they did the opposite and created 4 8-team divisions. That way, winning the division could be a real accomplishment, regardless of how far the team goes in the post-season. But I'm sure it's better for marketing to have 8 division winners than 4.

[Captain 97]

Of course, Castillo lost it all with the division on the line.

And the flat Stros don't much look like a playoff team.

But in all reality, the M's were fortunate to be that close that late.

Not that many mid 80s win team are in the thick of things, generally, it takes say, 90 wins.

But after all, the fact that Houston was even in the running, having lost their key leadoff guy, Altuve, for 69 games, and Mariner killer Alvarez, for 48, is telling.

The M's were without Marco and Ray, but that's offset by Houston's loss of McCullers and Garcia.

Take away JP and Julio for over a hundred games, and ??

Julio's Streak, and Collapse, were bizarre.

mid 80s will always have you in the thick of things with this new format. There are literally two teams in the playoffs right now with 84 wins.

[Hy Feiber]

Not that many mid 80s win team are in the thick of things, generally, it takes say, 90 wins.

Agree with all of what you said. 90 wins is definitely the lowest bar you need to aim for and yet the Ms seems to set that to be the high level of their bandwidth target. Looks like they are happy with 82 (above .500) to 90 and that's going to lead to seasons like we have just seen.

However as well, I've noticed that there is definitely an issue with the schedule since interleague play and the '94 realignment. There is often a weak division every other year or so. This year its the AL Central with Minnesota coasting to the division with just 87 wins. The East & West are always more competitive and I can only see rare examples of them being clinched with less than 90.

Here's a list of divisions won by 88 wins or less since 1994.
2023 Minnesota (AL Central) 87 wins, 1 to play
2021 Atlanta (NL Central) 88 wins - won World Series
2015 Texas (AL West) 88 wins
2012 Detroit (AL Central) 88 wins - lost World Series
2009 Minnesota (AL Central) 87 wins
2008 LA (NL West) 84 wins
2007 Chicago (NL Central) 85 wins
2006 St Louis (NL Central) 83 wins
2003 Chicago (NL Central) 88 wins
2001 Atlanta (NL East) 88 wins
1997 Houston (NL Central) 84 wins
1997 Cleveland (AL Central) 86 wins
1996 St. Louis (NL Central) 88 wins
1995 Cincinnati (NL Central) 85 wins

I think since they reduced the number of division games this season from 76 to just 52 then we are going to see NFL, NBA style weird divisions where you will find a weak one each season from this point on. And like the list above, my guess is its often going to be the Central divisions. Only way to make it fair is to consider another restructure. Then again do we fancy being in the "West Conference" with LA, SF, SD?

Excellent points, good research.