Off-season trade proposals

[Seattle or Bust]

Just thinking of some ways to add talent, move Mitch Haniger/Mitch Garver, and do so at key positions.

Trade #1: M's trade for 1B Matt Olson

Why? The Braves need pitching... M's need a quality 1B. The Braves will likely lose Max Fried in free agency and Charlie Morton to potential retirement. The M's have Luke Raley to play 1B, but here's the odd thing about Matt Olson... he's a reverse splits guy and hits both dexterities very well. You could do an abundance of things with Raley... DH him, give spot starts in the outfield and at 1B... move on from Randy and just have him play left field. The Braves are going to be coming up against some luxury tax challenges with some young players getting very expensive and could look to move Olson for a pitcher to swap cash positionally. Olson makes $22 million a year until 2029 at age 35.

The trade: Mariners send SP Luis Castillo, 1B Tyler Locklear, RHP Michael Morales to the Braves for 1B Matt Olson.

Trade Rationale: The Braves basically swap contracts between Olson and Castillo. They add their 1B of the future in Locklear while also adding an ascending pitching prospect who is now in AA. The M's lock down a 1B for the same price they'd pay Castillo who has 40 homer potential.

Trade #2: M's trade for 3B Nolan Arenado

Why? The Cardinals have to be headed for a small reset after missing the playoffs. Arenado has had a down year and the baseball savant page is not pretty with all bat and ball speed metrics hitting career lows. Arenado is owed $21, $16, and $15 million the next 3 years from ages 34-36 and just looks like an albatross now outside their contention window. He's hitting .268/.320/.399... career lows in OBP and slugging. According to Fangraphs, Arenado still grades out as the 4th best defensive 3B in baseball (minum 200 plate appearances). The M's can hope he's simply had a down year with the bat and that there's at least a little bit of juice there. What does do with the bat is post elite contact numbers... posting 90th percentile K and whiff rates. Paul Goldschmidt is also not likely to return for the Cardinals, meaning they could be looking for a 1B or DH type to add.

The trade: Mariners send 1B/DH/C Mitch Garver and 3B Ben Williamson to the Cardinals for 3B Nolan Arenado.

Trade Rationale: The M's need a 3B and they need to move dead weight off the payroll. Yes, Arenado is a big risk... but at $15 and $16 million in '26 and '27... the money isn't really that bad if Arenado falls off even more. Arenado is a little bit of a lottery ticket and the M's would hope that he can perform a bit better offensively if they trade for him. The Cardinals need a 1B/DH type with Paul Goldschmidt moving on... and at $12 million for just 1 season, the Cards can eat Garver's cash... hope he returns to some of his 2023 form... and don't mind doing so as they've gotten rid of Arenado's money and Garver will be gone after '25. Williamson gives them at 3B prospect who is already in AA.

Trade #3: Mariners trade for SS Carlos Correa

Why? JP Crawford is a shell of his '23 form and the M's could either decide to move on from him or move him to 2B. The Twins have repeatedly said they're struggling financially and need to move players. With Correa's injury history (again injured this year) but boomish production, the M's can afford to take the risk... especially if it means they offload a bad contract or 2. Correa has hit .308/.377/.520/.896 in just 75 games this year. He's owed $130 million over the next 4 years and has vesting options the next 4 years after that, but the options only vest if he has like 600 plate appearances or is top 5 in MVP and shit like that... so unlikely. The M's need more thump in their lineup and Correa would be a perfect option.

The trade: Mariners send SS JP Crawford and OF Mitch Haniger to the Twins for SS Carlos Correa.

Trade Rationale: The Twins get a SS for the next 2 years capable of 4 fWAR seasons for just $11 and $12 million. They take on Haniger's money for 1 season to be rid of Correa's massive money the next 3 years after. Yes, it's a big $$ add for the Mariners... but hey, maybe you catch lightning in a bottle and the $$ is essential a wash for the first year of the deal.

Trade #4: Mariners trade for OF Bryan Reynolds

Why? I could see the M's moving on from Randy Arozarena this off season in favor of someone with a bit more contact. Reynolds is hitting .279/.346/.452/.798 with 22 homers. He's terrible defensively, but oh well... The Pirates are another team that has indicated struggles financially and the need to move players. Reynolds is owed $15 million dollars each year for the next 6 years until he's 35. While the salary isn't super high, the total years for the Pirates might be.

The trade: Mariners trade OF Randy Arozarena, OF Dom Canzone, RHP Emerson Hancock to the Pirates for OF Bryan Reynolds.

Trade Rationale: I laid out the M's rationale above... but a few things on the Pirates: Their outfield, aside from Reynolds, is atrocious. Michael A Taylor has a .533 OPS, Edwin Olivares .624, and they traded for Bryan De La Cruz from Miami who has a .484 OPS since being acquired. They could use Canzone, pair him Randy and De La Cruz heading into next year. Hancock gives them a young, 5th starter to round out a solid rotation whose only bad egg is a 32-year-old Martin Perez sporting a 5.20 ERA.

[Captain 97]

Are you suggesting that they do all of these trades or are these just some options. Haven't dove into this yet but it seems like a list of over the hill guys who are on the decline and make a lot of money. exactly the opposite of the M's need.

[Captain 97]

Olson will be 31 next year has a .755 OPS and is owed 122 Million over the next 5 years
Arenado will be 34 next year has a .716 OPS and is owed 52 Million over 3 years plus 50 Million in deferred money spread out over 20 years.
Correa will be 30 next year. He has had a nice bounce back season after a bad season last year. He is owed 133.33 Million over the next 4 years plus a bunch of vesting options after that.
Reynolds will be 30 next year has been OK at a .798 OPS but not at the levels he was a few years back. He is owed 87.5 Million over the next 6 years

[Big_Maple]

Thanks for all of the thought you put into that, SoB. As Captain points out, those are guys who I would have salivated over 5 years ago, but seems like we'd be giving up a lot to get some guys who have already peaked. Not that some of them aren't better than what we have right now (like Olson, for example). But they would be costly, they are all likely going to decline, and they'd tie up money that we might (and I use the word "might" loosely here cause we all know how stingy the Front Office is) use to get a free agent or two.

I think we would be best to stick with Arozarena in LF next year. He's having a down year this year, but I think he's better than that. He's good for .250+ batting average, 20+ dingers, and he can steal bases. He's a huge upgrade over Kelenic.

Some of the other guys you listed would be salary dumps, so I am not sure other teams would take them. Castillo, for example, is an obvious choice for trade since he's losing his stuff and he's getting expensive. But those are reasons why any other team wouldn't want him. Moreover, the free agent class is flush with choices for them to choose from without giving up Olson. You'll have to part with more young talent to acquire another player with less potential than Olson (think about the Kelenic trade that folded in White and Marco - and in return we got 2 pitching prospects who went straight to the OR for Tommy Johns).

Last, I don't think any substantive trade to move our needle happens without parting with one of our stud starters. Any offer involving Castillo will be countered with "we don't want him, - he's too expensive and he's not great - but we'd love to get young, controllable and cheap Kirby/Logan/Miller/Woo".

So yeah, I love what you;'re trying to do here - shed payroll and get rid of deadweight. But in my opinion, Trader Jerry ain't gonna swing any blockbusters this offseason unless it's for a non-Castillo starter. I will all be deck chair reshuffling hoping to get a bounceback, diamond in the rough.

That said, IF Jerry can offload the Mitchs and Castillo, that frees up another $55MM or so, next year alone. We'd have to throw in a ton of prospects to make it happen, but if they could free up that money, they might be able to go after a few studs in free agency. They could go nuts and replace Castillo with a legit TOR ace like Corbin. A Corbin, Woo, Miller, Kirby, Gilbert rotation with Hancock in the wins would be insane. Absolutely insane.

They could let Polanco walk (free up another $12MM) and get either Adames or Kim and stop dicking around and move JP to 2B.

And they could get Bregman at 3B.

They can afford to do all of these things. This would be the kind of spending the Rangers did 2 years ago, and would likely net the same results - a trip to World Series for the first time in franchise history. We would have an insane rotation with a lineup to rival the Dodgers.

Yeah, I know I'm dreaming. But I guess my point is that all of these moves would be within reach of the Mariners this offeason assuming they offloaded some big contracts. They would be the most feared team in baseball for the next 3-5 years and they would still be below the luxury tax threshold. I'd rather do that than most of what you're proposing, although I recognize that neither plan is likely to materialize. It will inevitably be dumpster diving that results in another dumpster fire.

PS - I am deliberately not pulling numbers out of the air for contracts for these 3 FAs. It sort of doesn't matter - the point is that we pay what it costs to get them. If the FO is serious, they can make it happen. The Rangers did. And they still only have the 8th highest payroll in baseball.

[Lamda]

Actually sounds like Dipoto-type moves as all players are on the downsides of their careers and will just keep getting worse. He will think, with our offensive juggernaut reputation, that he can turn them all back into all-stars lol.

[D-train]

Olson will be 31 next year has a .755 OPS and is owed 122 Million over the next 5 years
Arenado will be 34 next year has a .716 OPS and is owed 52 Million over 3 years plus 50 Million in deferred money spread out over 20 years.
Correa will be 30 next year. He has had a nice bounce back season after a bad season last year. He is owed 133.33 Million over the next 4 years plus a bunch of vesting options after that.
Reynolds will be 30 next year has been OK at a .798 OPS but not at the levels he was a few years back. He is owed 87.5 Million over the next 6 years

That is only $400M owed for an average age of 31.25 and about a .750 OPS. That just might finally get Jerry fired. LOL

[D-train]

Better chance Stanton joins the Circus and becauses a literal Clown instead of the figurative clown that has been the last few years than take on those contracts...

[bpj]

Luis Castillo to Yankees
Harry Ford to A's

Brent Rooker to Mariners

Jasson Dominguez to A's

Add some other prospects that are blocked at the MLB level as needed to even it out.

Trade the Mitches for Arby's coupons.
Trade Arozarena.
Send Polanco packing.

Then sign Juan Soto with all that cash they saved.

Not many players on the market beyond Soto that are difference makers when weighed against the contracts they'll get.

If they can't pull off those moves, I'd prefer to see Dipoto make trades for the young power hitter that's blocked on another team than signing a geezer again.

[D-train]

M's were tied for 1st place at the deadline and their big move was trading for Randy. Jerry was so proud to say that they kept all of their top prospects that might be rookies in 2026.

Since that deadline Randy is at .227/.709

And Rooker is at .312/.942

And we are going to miss the playoffs....AGAIN...

sUStIanABiLitY. F you Jerry.

[bpj]

M's were tied for 1st place at the deadline and their big move was trading for Randy. Jerry was so proud to say that they kept all of their top prospects that might be rookies in 2026.

Since that deadline Randy is at .227/.709

And Rooker is at .312/.942

And we are going to miss the playoffs....AGAIN...

sUStIanABiLitY. F you Jerry.

It really makes no sense. Guys like Harry Ford don't even have a position to play here. Trade them.

We don't need Emerson Hancock and Luis Castillo.

Why didn't he pull the trigger?

I think he undervalues offense pretty substantially. We've watched it play out for years at DH where he thinks it was a good idea to rotate five below average bats through and hope that somehow equals the production of a Yordan Alvarez that our competitor has.

I had little interest in this season because Jerry punted going in imo. Now that they've already extended him I've lost even more interest.