Another Victor Robles but at 3B this off season?

[Seattle or Bust]

I've been trying to figure out how the M's address 3B this off season.

No way they can roll with Rojas and of course Urias will be non-tendered. Matt Chapman is off the board and there's about a 0% chance they land Bregman in free agency.

I was looking at pending 3B free agents and one name from the past stood out as a reclamation project:

Yoan Moncada

Like Robles, Moncada was a top 3 prospect in baseball when breaking into the majors in 2017 with the White Sox. In 2019, he put it all together, hitting .315/.367/.548/.915... good for 5.2 fWAR. He followed that up with a .787 OPS 3.7 fWAR year in 2021. Since then, Moncada has been nailed with the injury bug playing in 104 games in '22, 92 in '23, and just 11 in '24 after oddly hurting himself running out a routine grounder to first base. Robles suffered similar fates, struggling with injuries in 2021 and 2023 that held him to just 101 and 32 games played. We know Jerry likes to bring in former top prospects who have fallen from grace... JP, Trammell, Urias, Robles, etc...

So, could a healthy Moncada be a difference maker? I don't see why not... and he likely could be had very cheap. And it might be what the M's end up doing to save some money places.

Moncada has a lot of thunder in his bat... despite the injuries he's been around a 90 mph avg exit velocity the last 3 seasons. For reference, 93 MPH typically puts you in the top 2 % of big leaguers, so he's up there. Before getting injured, he appeared to fix some pretty bad K/BB rates. In
'23, he K'd 30% of the time and walked just 5% of the time. In '24, he dropped the K rate to 23% and his walk rate increased to 11.5%, which is elite. In limited time, he was splitting .282/.364/.410/.774. When right, he's probably good for a .250/.330/.420/.750 type seaso. Although in his best years he's been in the .370 OBP range so the capability to get on base more is certainly out there. A positive with him is that he's a switch hitter meaning that he won't need to be platooned.

Defensively, he's had 3 years where he's posted elite range at 3B. In '19 and '22 he graded out as the 11th and 10th best 3B according to fangraphs. It seems when he's healthy, he plays a pretty solid 3B. When he's not healthy, he struggles.

He's currently rehabbing in AAA where he's hitting .343/.378/.571/.950 through 10 games and should be healthy for the '24 season. He's certainly got more upside than both Urias and Rojas in my opinion. He's just gotta stay healthy.

[D-train]

I guess it is possible but he seems like an almost 30 yo JK to me.....

Screenshot 2024-09-14 9.12.25 AM.png (23.33 KiB) Viewed 313 times

[Seattle or Bust]

I guess it is possible but he seems like an almost 30 yo JK to me.....

Screenshot 2024-09-14 9.12.25 AM.png

Lots of injuries during those years.

If JK ever posted 5.2 and 3.7 fWAR seasons then yeah... but JK has never really been good.

I think a more accurate comparison is Tyler O'Neill.

Moncada:



O'Neill:

[Donn Beach]

Yeah, not seeing Kelenic

Moncada was batting .282 with three doubles, a stolen base, five walks, a .774 OPS and a 0.4 WAR in 11 games this season before he went down. It looked like Moncada was in for a bounce-back season after a few inefficient and injury-plagued and campaigns, despite the fact that he was yet to record a home run or RBI.

A back injury limited Moncada to 92 games in 2023. Oblique, quad, hamstring and foot injuries led to him appearing in just 104 games in 2022. After playing in 86.1% of the White Sox's games from 2017 to 2021, he has appeared in just 49

Even when he was playing, Moncada wasn't putting up great numbers as of late. He averaged 11 home runs, 44 RBI and a 1.5 WAR per season from 2020 to 2023, batting .243 with a .720 OPS.

Moncada had shown promise in the past, however, beyond the fact that he was once one of the top prospects in baseball. He hit .315 with 25 home runs, 79 RBI, a .915 OPS and a 5.2 WAR in 2019, establishing himself as one of the key pieces of the White Sox's young core.

[bpj]

I do think that going after the Luke Raley, Victor Robles, young Haniger types would he a better strategy for Dipoto to pursue than continuing to let him spend on guys like Garver and old Haniger.

[Pharmabro]

I think he might be a decent buy low guy. (Maybe) He made 24.8M with the Sox this year and they have a team opt for 25M with a 5M buyout.

He has a 106 OPS+ career and has a hit as high as a 140 OPS+ in a year and as many as 25 HR.

He looks like he gets chronic hamstring strains, and back issues.

He certainly looks like he "profiles" better at 3rd vs Rojas.

[harmony]

I've been trying to figure out how the M's address 3B this off season.

No way they can roll with Rojas and of course Urias will be non-tendered. Matt Chapman is off the board and there's about a 0% chance they land Bregman in free agency.

I was looking at pending 3B free agents and one name from the past stood out as a reclamation project:

Yoan Moncada

Like Robles, Moncada was a top 3 prospect in baseball when breaking into the majors in 2017 with the White Sox. In 2019, he put it all together, hitting .315/.367/.548/.915... good for 5.2 fWAR. He followed that up with a .787 OPS 3.7 fWAR year in 2021. Since then, Moncada has been nailed with the injury bug playing in 104 games in '22, 92 in '23, and just 11 in '24 after oddly hurting himself running out a routine grounder to first base. Robles suffered similar fates, struggling with injuries in 2021 and 2023 that held him to just 101 and 32 games played. We know Jerry likes to bring in former top prospects who have fallen from grace... JP, Trammell, Urias, Robles, etc...

So, could a healthy Moncada be a difference maker? I don't see why not... and he likely could be had very cheap. And it might be what the M's end up doing to save some money places.

Moncada has a lot of thunder in his bat... despite the injuries he's been around a 90 mph avg exit velocity the last 3 seasons. For reference, 93 MPH typically puts you in the top 2 % of big leaguers, so he's up there. Before getting injured, he appeared to fix some pretty bad K/BB rates. In
'23, he K'd 30% of the time and walked just 5% of the time. In '24, he dropped the K rate to 23% and his walk rate increased to 11.5%, which is elite. In limited time, he was splitting .282/.364/.410/.774. When right, he's probably good for a .250/.330/.420/.750 type seaso. Although in his best years he's been in the .370 OBP range so the capability to get on base more is certainly out there. A positive with him is that he's a switch hitter meaning that he won't need to be platooned.

Defensively, he's had 3 years where he's posted elite range at 3B. In '19 and '22 he graded out as the 11th and 10th best 3B according to fangraphs. It seems when he's healthy, he plays a pretty solid 3B. When he's not healthy, he struggles.

He's currently rehabbing in AAA where he's hitting .343/.378/.571/.950 through 10 games and should be healthy for the '24 season. He's certainly got more upside than both Urias and Rojas in my opinion. He's just gotta stay healthy.

Good analysis.

We may agree on something.

[harmony]

If Yoan Moncada signs with Seattle in the offseason, chances are far better than even that a year from now fans on this forum will complain that the Mariners again failed to sign a healthy productive hitter.

But that presumably low-cost gamble might be worth taking.

https://www.yardbarker.com/mlb/articles ... 1_40900611

[D-train]

Yeah, not seeing Kelenic

Moncada was batting .282 with three doubles, a stolen base, five walks, a .774 OPS and a 0.4 WAR in 11 games this season before he went down. It looked like Moncada was in for a bounce-back season after a few inefficient and injury-plagued and campaigns, despite the fact that he was yet to record a home run or RBI.

A back injury limited Moncada to 92 games in 2023. Oblique, quad, hamstring and foot injuries led to him appearing in just 104 games in 2022. After playing in 86.1% of the White Sox's games from 2017 to 2021, he has appeared in just 49

Even when he was playing, Moncada wasn't putting up great numbers as of late. He averaged 11 home runs, 44 RBI and a 1.5 WAR per season from 2020 to 2023, batting .243 with a .720 OPS.

Moncada had shown promise in the past, however, beyond the fact that he was once one of the top prospects in baseball. He hit .315 with 25 home runs, 79 RBI, a .915 OPS and a 5.2 WAR in 2019, establishing himself as one of the key pieces of the White Sox's young core.

Cannot believe that every single prospect of their young core was a bust. I guess things could have been a lot worse with our rebuild.

[GL_Storm]

I think Moncada would want to go to an easier ballpark to hit in.