Mariner Talk Chat Forum

1st plan the 1/2 and 1/2 plan.

1st. I am pulling anything I can to allow Edgar to stay as part of the hitting instruction. I guess the rigors of traveling for 1/2 of the 162 game season is a turnoff for Edgar so be it. He can stay in Seattle and go on his selection of road trips. Some assistant can do the road messaging.

2nd. I Keep the catching Mitch and do a trade of Mitch to CWS attached to a prospect and slap 3-6M with him depending on prospect quality going out.

3rd. I am getting rid of all the dead weight. (or almost all) Urias, all the lame BP guys: Sauce, trent, etc, and Urias, and Rojas. Between the moves for Haniger, not picking up Jorge's option and all the non-tenders and projected raises and the 26 man pay going up 5-10% I have the potential to spend 35-45M. Rojas would be the only questionable one.

Trade #1. This is very important because I am dumping Jorge and Rojas which would leave only Moore and the call-ups for 2B and 3B. I go out and get a deal done for one of my long time targets in 2B/1B/OF Tampa's Brandon Lowe* 121 OPS+ in 2024 (125 career).

His MLB tradecalc # is 13.5 to 16M M's trade ( Arroyo 13.5M, and Walter Ford 2M)

I thought about including Yandy Diaz for his ability to do 1B and some 3B but went another direction for this plan. But he would make a good choice.

Trade #2 M's acquire 2B/3B/OF StL's Brendan Donavan* He has a 116 OPS+ career, he is coming off a 112 OPS+ 2.6 WAR this year. Donavan's 3 arbitration years have a trade calc of 29M and he will probably be due about 3 to 4M in Arb1. The trade is a bit of an overpay but the Cards were over .500 and need to be convinced even with their core guys Goldy = FA, and Nolan at a 101 OPS+. The package:( Cole Young 22.1M, T. Locklear 12.8M, Dawel Joseph 3.3M)

FA I have noticed that many of you like me have wanted to add a power lefty to the pen. I address that need in a big way by signing A. Chapman who is coming off a 111ERA+ year to a 7.5M +/- 1 year.

FA#2 There was an option to go after Yandy as a high average high OBP but limited slug 1B. That profile was in the mold of T. France, Justin Turner, and Lamonte Wade Jr. So in this case we just sign JT for???? 9M?

Lineup:
1. Robles RF 155 OPS+
2. Raley* 1B 129 OPS+
3. Julio CF 116 OPS+
4. Cal** C 119 OPS+
5. Randy LF 118 OPS+
6. Lowe* 2B 121 OPS+
7. JT DH 128 OPS+
8. Donavan* 3B 112 OPS+
9. JP* SS 86 OPS+ ( 1 year removed from a 133 OPS+)

Bench is:
super utility Moore 104 OPS+
C/DH/1B Garver
3 of (Bliss, Dom C., Rivas, Haggerty, Marlowe, Taylor, etc) My guess

SP is the same but look at the BP
BP
Closer Munoz
RH set-up: Santos, Brash, Snider, Troy Taylor
LH set-up: A. Chapman
Lower leverage: JT Chargois, Bazardo, (scrap heap projects)

We added 30M/of my expected 35-45M dollar budget. That leaves room for adding at least 1 or 2 deadline additions.

Keys:
The real key to this build is Julio being an MVP bat.
The 2nd key is health. Run that starting 5 out with that knock-out BP? That could be a recipe for #1 SP, and #1 BP
3rd Key: Robles ignited this offense. That performance if repeated is like adding an even better version of prime Ichiro.

The Cards also have an interesting pivot @ 3rd base. Instead of Brendan D. They could present:

Nolan Arenado who is coming off 2 down years 108, and 101 OPS+. He is still a good to great defender at 3rd base. He is owed 74M for 3 years, and 10M will be coming from the Rookies. His trade calc value is -26.1M. I think this is where you could trade Mitch Haniger

Cards get Mitch H -15.5M, Teddy McGraw 2.7M, Ben Williamson 6.8M

M's get Nolan Arenado, 20M from Cards, 10M from Rockies= Nolan A. for 3 years at a total 44M.
2025 32M -10M Cards, -5M Rockies =17M,
2026 27M -(7M from Cards and 5M Rockies) =15M
2027 15M -3M from Cards = 12M

Why? He is not an upgrade over Rojas. But he is, Rojas's bat: was a 91 OPS+ vs the 101 from Nolan. But Nolan even in a down power year for him was still able to hit 16HR and have 71 RBI, and score 70 times. Vs. 31 RBI and 48 runs scored for Rojas. 79 vs. 141.
But
I am betting some regression on the power number based on his FB % --> HR was in the 11's for the previous 3 years and in 2024 it was cut in 1/2 to 6.3%.

When Nolan was 30 The Cards got him following Covid year with 214M owed and the Rockies sending 51M to get the deal done.

What do you guys think about maybe doing a Nolan deal?

JP has a career OPS+ 101. He will be 30 in January. Was horrid this season. Zero chance he gets close to 2023.

Nothing exciting in your plan so it is a good plan in terms of being predictive but not so much in terms of WS aspirations.

btw Stanek just closed out the Phillies. Guessing he doesn't mind being traded.

D-train wrote: ↑

Sat Oct 05, 2024 11:24 pm

JP has a career OPS+ 101. He will be 30 in January. Was horrid this season. Zero chance he gets close to 2023.

Nothing exciting in your plan so it is a good plan in terms of being predictive but not so much in terms of WS aspirations.

I wouldn't say there is zero chance but I have him at #9 for a reason. And, hit restart next year and there is no reason why he can't be an OBP focused 100 OPS+.

D-train wrote: ↑

Sat Oct 05, 2024 11:26 pm

btw Stanek just closed out the Phillies. Guessing he doesn't mind being traded.

That is unexpected. He went over there and was even worse for them 6+ ERA. He had really good stuff but didn't have the control to execute the Mariner game plan. That plan has gotten them in trouble too many times for my taste. Get ahead 0-2, 1-2, and then nibble and it is usually so far off the zone that most players just layoff them until the count runs to 3-2 and than ball 4.

The thing that makes me sick is they could sign Soto and their payroll would still be under $200M.

2018 payroll was $162. Adjusted for inflation that would be about $215M in 2025

AND not a single owners lifestyle would be negatively impacted in the slightest.

D-train wrote: ↑

Sat Oct 05, 2024 11:38 pm

The thing that makes me sick is they could sign Soto and their payroll would still be under $200M.

2018 payroll was $162. Adjusted for inflation that would be about $215M in 2025

AND not a single owners lifestyle would be negatively impacted in the slightest.

How much do you think Soto goes for? I remember a few of us were like you go all out for Ohtani and give him 50M a year with opt-outs and,,,. He ended up at 700M.

Judge signed for 9X40M coming off a monster 62 HR season. But he was 30 at the time vs Soto who will be 26 next year.

Does 12 X 44M get it done? (524 Million)

Pharmabro wrote: ↑

Sat Oct 05, 2024 11:21 pm

The Cards also have an interesting pivot @ 3rd base. Instead of Brendan D. They could present:

Nolan Arenado who is coming off 2 down years 108, and 101 OPS+. He is still a good to great defender at 3rd base. He is owed 74M for 3 years, and 10M will be coming from the Rookies. His trade calc value is -26.1M. I think this is where you could trade Mitch Haniger

Cards get Mitch H -15.5M, Teddy McGraw 2.7M, Ben Williamson 6.8M

M's get Nolan Arenado, 20M from Cards, 10M from Rockies= Nolan A. for 3 years at a total 44M.
2025 32M -10M Cards, -5M Rockies =17M,
2026 27M -(7M from Cards and 5M Rockies) =15M
2027 15M -3M from Cards = 12M

Why? He is not an upgrade over Rojas. But he is, Rojas's bat: was a 91 OPS+ vs the 101 from Nolan. But Nolan even in a down power year for him was still able to hit 16HR and have 71 RBI, and score 70 times. Vs. 31 RBI and 48 runs scored for Rojas. 79 vs. 141.
But
I am betting some regression on the power number based on his FB % --> HR was in the 11's for the previous 3 years and in 2024 it was cut in 1/2 to 6.3%.

When Nolan was 30 The Cards got him following Covid year with 214M owed and the Rockies sending 51M to get the deal done.

What do you guys think about maybe doing a Nolan deal?

Even with significant money coming from the Cardinals and Rockies, given the player's age and clear signs of decline, I don't think there's any chance the M's would do a deal for Arenado.

Pharmabro wrote: ↑

Sun Oct 06, 2024 1:16 am

D-train wrote: ↑

Sat Oct 05, 2024 11:38 pm

The thing that makes me sick is they could sign Soto and their payroll would still be under $200M.

2018 payroll was $162. Adjusted for inflation that would be about $215M in 2025

AND not a single owners lifestyle would be negatively impacted in the slightest.

How much do you think Soto goes for? I remember a few of us were like you go all out for Ohtani and give him 50M a year with opt-outs and,,,. He ended up at 700M.

Judge signed for 9X40M coming off a monster 62 HR season. But he was 30 at the time vs Soto who will be 26 next year.

Does 12 X 44M get it done? (524 Million)

Someone will give Soto $600M/10-12.

JP's career 101 OPS+ is also elevated by a huge outlier season.

Far more likely he's the 90 OPS+ guy he's always been. And he's owed a lot of money. Yipee.